Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 TAUNTING coming into this race with a strong work tab including a 5f move last month and a big half mile breeze in 48 flat on 9/1. The horses from this barn can often tout themselves visually and something to get a look for as this race starts off the card.

#6 BABY BOAT worked 10 flat at the April sale and still growing at the time is no surprise for this one to take a little longer to make a debut. Physically he presented as one that can handle the turf (was entered for turf here last week, 9/8) though will debut on the main track here. While he does not show a work after that scratch, the overall work tab is notable; there were some published works starting back in May the current cycle picked up in late July and steady into this race.

Boyce will send out a pair: #3 FRONTIER MARSHAL should have no issue on fitness with the long work tab and will race light with R. Slevinsky aboard. #7 RUMBLING with experience another that has TURF visuals and must step up off the debut (behind stablemate winner, Takeitaway) effort overall. #1 SNEAKY FEET will also land here from that 8/25 common race and much like their debut (productive race 8/11) broke SLOG and made a late MOVE/CLOSE. The added ground should be in their favor, though the pattern of gate issues and the rail draw could be a hurdle. 

#4 CODE RUNNER returns to Hawthorne and the level of their win back on 7/7 reclaimed by trainer Hugo Rodriguez. These connections stepped up earlier this month to run in a higher conditioned race at PID where CODE RUNNER position X_FLOW behind an open length even money pacesetting winner, was unable to run his best race on the day though should provide fitness along with the upgrade here.

#2 JEFF THE LION is overdue for a win and almost had it in the 8/18 common race. He put in a big effort after the TROUBLE_S to CLOSE late and just missed. The HOT barn in play might have seen a top on the day and requires a similar effort, though could show more early speed here and with the rider change. #1 BEEALEA also from that event fits at this level and a more confirmed closer can be upgraded off the subtle trip will pick up T. Wales the win rider from back in June at FD. #7 COOL QUARTET should look to show more early speed (Q1) today something he will be forced to use from the outside and still requires a top effort given his races this season, races that fit on par though in line with the others, lacking any strong edge once again. 

#5 MONEY AGENT found the right level when they made the drop to MCL company earlier this season pairing up strong efforts back in April. Today’s par is similar and presents upside in this second start of the cycle coming back from the 8/25 race given a less than ideal ride and flow upgraded with the Very Fast early and late pace – the flow assisting #4 CRUZIN N CURSIN (5yo) in their place finish.

Perez will also send out #2 DRAFTSMAN from that event and one that perhaps has not shown his best yet. He looked to require the DROP going back to the debut last year and some conditioning with the layoff lines this season. He also returns from that 8/25 event and much like the first two continued to break SLOG though was in hand/NO_PUSH the rest of the way.

#3 TIGGER ATTACK will make the change back to MCL company and return to the route distance . His effort back on opening day (3/23) was outclassed for the MSW rivals, though the figure on the day stacks up as one of the stronger in this field. The number in line with #6 CAPTAIN’S FLAG one coming off two straight loss as a heavy favorite and lateral move with the barn change into this spot with the distance change and quick turnaround. The DROP also comes in play for #1 MY LAST ESCAPADE one that has shown progression race to race and in addition to the MCL move will also stretch out to a route in this third start. 

The two R. Martinez runners shipping in add heat with their natural and preferred (EP) early speed stretching out to a route distance here. Both runners follow an “every other” pattern giving the edge on the upswing to #3 BOISE here. He should be under the radar with the 8/3 running line and finishing position sitting on top of the pp’s along with the change in distance. The route distance is a change though preferred for BOISE over stablemate #6 MEDAL OF FACT in general and in today’s race. BOISE holds a win around two turns from back in April and going all the way back to the beginning of his career was one running almost exclusively around two turns and competitive with some of his higher figures at the time. His recent route win was showed tactical speed, though can rate and finish, again keying off the distant races something not shown on the current (Standard) Plot.

The early pace should be very honest looking at the Plot with the Sun Contention, five of the seven to the left of the y-axis and more than half the field above the ParLine playing a role in the 43 SpeedRate. The complexion of that early pace includes  #1 KHOZAN’S SUCCESS wheeling right back and with the rail draw today where they project to get into the mix early, though must improve with the quickness and should find wagering support once again. The pace should set up for #7 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER (in addition to BOISE) with his run style and finding the class relief returning to this circuit and conditions where he fits keying off the place finish (B OptixGRADE) under similar when claimed back in June. 

The distance of the Preakness creating a new dimension for this group that have knocked heads and run competitive races this season. The main players return from the 8/18 showdown where #2 MO SMOKIN took advantage of the race shape (FLOW) and the front end to upset. The upset was up for grabs as #1 IZZY’S MONSTER looked a bit vulnerable on the day with favorable race shapes pairing wins in May/June and then forced to work HARD for the July score – something that gives her a chance to rebound here. #6 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN was a new face last month and held her own on the class rise projects to run another honest effort here.

Looking at the Plot, those three all Q1 Squares should be in a race of their own, however if there is some type of battle, #7 DESSERT FIRST (the new face today) could look to sneak into a “setup” style trip. 

#7 BAH HUMBUG is one of two KY invaders with upside and intent wheeling back for this race. She has the benefit of the two (or more) turn experience and fitness should not be an issue given the prior outside post positions finding a better draw today. The debut projected to gain experience with the SLOG and WIDE run and improved last out at KYD showing better gate speed before a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW outside horses to push pace showing try before losing ground – and outside slightly against the profile.

#4 WHERE’S THE WINE turned in a BTL effort against the group last month at ELP and should transfer her form to this circuit. The distance change will be in play stretching out here though the connections have shown intent for a route race keying off a 7/5 scratch when the races were taken off the ELP turf.

In terms of the local runners, #6 DEAL’EM AND WEEP and #3 MACHIVA with the class edge exiting the 8/25 common race with competitive efforts on the day and would look for a wraps removal on #2 DATAW ISLAND as she makes her second start back off the layoff. 

Looking at the Plot, the race shape is a tough puzzle and the lack of a confirmed from runners the Standard (current form) Plot has a near vacant Quad I. Moving to Surface/Distance #5 SOVIET STANDARD could take up that role and finds a race shape similar to when he has been successful. Intent could follow as he makes his second start of the cycle, restless in the GATE on 8/25 and picks up a significant weight break with 10-lb bug, H. Ortega picking up the mount.

#4 MALIGATOR took the drop last month looking for a belated win and while he came up short in show, he ran his race with the WIDE CLOSE and strong GALLOP+ - a trip they will look for her with his usual off the pace (Q4) runstyle. #3 IMPERIAL MOMENT finds a similar Plot position today as the race on July 21^st though an upgrade in shape shifting to a Square on both Standard and Surface/Distance. The form cycle is also a similar “second off” with the 8/29 event, a first start after 39-days on the bench. Trip will be key for their stablemate #10 STOLICH though looking at the Plot, they are not out of it and could find a favorable scenario.

F. Bahena also will be represented by a pair with #7 JIM AND JIM cutting back to a sprint for this race and should make a run looking at the Plot and how his stacks up by comparison in this field. #9 MR. FROST might have a hidden pace advantage with the Standard Plot though softer on figures and class (red/pink Past 3 Runlines) where a top effort is required. 

The clever idea with #3 GO EMI nearly got there at 42.8-1 last out and while he the form not nearly as “buried” today can be given a look right back. Class wise he might have been a touch short (B-) though right back under similar conditions in a race without a real strong, stand out “horse to beat” could catch the right group. He will find a rider change as O. Mojica takes over from W. Rodriguez, the rider that came in town to ride GO EMI last month.  

As far as riders, D. Cohen sticks with #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES and noted as he had been aboard #9 C F V BULLET last out and the June win as well as #10 SOUL COAXING this season for his prior connections. M. Boyce has been sending out live and probably would make their meet for “Clifford” to pick up a win before the end of season.

Another rider change for #5 CADET CORPS with L. Colon picking up the mount, a rider that has been aboard in the past including a win here last April. Today’s group could be taken as a lateral move for this one that has been consistent all season though catches a full field of established dirt horses. The change in class with a slight rise is noted for #2 RICKY BOBBY one that could find public support for the connections and as a “new face” in this field – looking at the Plot requires some price compensation for pace. They were entered here under similar conditions in the 8/8 event (vet scr) and the connections will race for a tag today, though have more than made up for the $10k he was claimed for back in April at Oaklawn Park. 

Mojica was aboard #1 COLOSSEO for his first and only stateside win to date back in December at Turfway Park. The tactics that day on the lead (similar on 5/13) established a LONE lead and carried the field to a 20-1 upset, tough to expect the same price here. While he fits in this race and appears well intended for a win, trip must still be considered with today’s race shape and other E/EP types in this field especially #4 AHEADOFTHEGAME and #6 WICKED SURPRISE in this field. #5 BAKENEKO controlled a moderate pace (PRESSED FLOW) last out though not a “need the lead” type as shown outside of Q1 on the Plot.

#9 SIMPLE LOGIC is who he is as an individual and finds a reasonable level and group in this open $10k event. Outside of current form and strong connections, his runstyle could be the biggest edge in this race where trip/Plot should suit. #2 SON OF GRACE is the only other runner as a Square on Standard and Surface/Distance upgrading him in this spot and one that should be overlooked in this field and off the recent running lines and finishing positions.  

The day kicks off with maiden two-year-olds with six boys and one filly in a competitive event. A horse that scratched last week, possibly for this spot, is 6-BABY BOAT as he debuts for trainer Jimmy DiVito. He has worked forwardly toward this debut, posting an easy gate drill on August 17 followed by a pair of sharp half mile works from the pole on August 24 and 31. He appears primed for a big effort at first asking. 2-TAUNTING debuts for Block as he has worked forwardly toward this race as well. Block won with a firster on the grass on Thursday and looks to send out another winner on debut. 4-MARK MY MEMORY has a consistent work pattern coming into here as he figures to sneak off at a bit of a price. He looked good in his paddock schooling on Thursday and handled everything very professionally.

A very tough race as pace could dictate the outcome in this competitive field. With none committed to the front end, 3-STRONGER TOGETHER could be the one to inherit the lead and look to steal this race. He chased the pace on Aheadofthegame in his last couple and ran on late in both. If he makes the top, and the pace is slow, look for him to try to slow things down early and run on late. 7-COOL QUARTET makes his second start over the track as he looks to make amends for a tough trip in his last. If he can get back to the race where he was claimed at Churchill three back, that could be good enough to win in here. 4-CODE RUNNER was a good winner at this level when claimed two back. He had some time away for returning at Presque Isle on September 3 but comes back today as the likely favorite against these.

Another race with upset potential as again there is little along the lines of early pace in this race. Between the class drop and stretch in distance, 1-MY LAST ESCAPADE could be in with an upset shot. He ran into a couple of tough winners in Willie Bird and Findaway in his first two races and showed solid improvement in his second start out. With little along the lines of speed to challenge early, I hope he is sent away from the gate and never looks back. 6-CAPTAIN'S FLAG was a beaten favorite in his last couple and does step up slightly but has figures that are competitive at this level. He's another that should be forwardly placed in this race as he adds blinkers today as well. 3-TIGGER ATTACK is overdue for the maiden score as he also takes the class drop in here. His last was an improved performance but he has some time in between races and only one posted drill.

Another two turn event where the field is likely to be bunched due to a lack of early pace. With the potential to show some speed and find a good early spot, 2-TWO COOKIE RULE could be poised for his first win of the year. He raced well in 2023 and has been knocking on the door recently. Reyes has been a good fit in the saddle and should have this one sitting on a big performance. 1-KHOZAN'S SUCCESS is the other that potentially could rate close, but possibly provides much less value than any others in this field. After a win four back, he's been defeated as a heavy favorite in his last three. He's sure to take action again but is no gimme for the top spot. 7-CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER has had troubled trips in his last couple. Those races have also come against better company and his last was also in a spot where the pace was extremely slow. On the drop, expect him to sit a bit closer early in here and look to move forwardly in the lane.

The final leg of this series got much more intriguing after the upset of Izzy's Monster last out. At the further 1 3/16 miles distance, the weight and pace scenario could be factors once again. 6-MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN comes back off a near miss last out where she stalked the pace and battled to the wire. She picks up bug girl Rachel Slevinsky in the saddle once again and gets 8-9 lbs. from the top two choices in the morning line. With her second start back off the layoff, expect her to rate close early and contend the entire way. 2-MO SMOKING was the one who made the top and never looked back in that August 18 race as she was very game the entire way. She figures to be sent away once again as we will look to see if she can repeat her performance. 1-IZZY'S MONSTER has been very solid all meet, finding the board in all six Hawthorne starts. She has tactical speed and was grinding things out late, only to come up just a head short in the tight three horse photo. Expect her to stalk early again and battle late.

This could quite possibly be the toughest race of the meet to handicap as not only are all 10 horses in with a shot, but any of 5-6 could end up being sent away as the favorite. It's a tough race in that again there is little along the lines of early speed in here and those that may show speed are the longer shots in the field. With no horse in the field having won a race on the year it is tough to find consistency either. In the end it comes to trip and value. After looking over the race for an extended period of time I ended up going to 1-OVER CALENDARED from the rail. This runner closed the 2023 campaign and opened 2024 in fine form in New Orleans. He put together solid efforts in starts three and four back and ran a better than looks on paper race back on April 20 when Blanche was in the saddle. He'll save ground and could potentially be right there late in what may be a blanket finish. 3-IMPERIAL MOMENT is a major factor if you can get past his most recent race. The start two back was solid as he rated and ran on late at a big price. He makes the second start off the layoff in here and could be charging in the lane. 4-MALIGATOR is another with the right to improve in here. After facing tougher throughout the course of his career he dropped to this level for his last start. That was a disappointing effort but the start is what did him in as he spotted the field numerous lengths early. With better position in here, look for him to be flying in the stretch.

Another excellent race with numerous horses in with a chance. If he can get back to his starts from two or three back, 9-C F V BULLETT could be sitting on a solid performance in here. He has the ability to stalk the early pace, which could be quick and contested and should get the jump on the late closers. He has a solid work since his last start as Emigh takes the call today. 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES is admittedly one of may favorite horses on the grounds as he always tries so hard and is a 10 time winner over the track. He just missed in a game effort last out and gets Cohen back aboard today. I expect he's right there once again. 5-CADET CORPS is another that will be racing from the second flight as he looks to close late in the lane as well. He's had a solid season and has actually benefitted from running in four races that were taken off the grass, resulting in two wins and two runner-up efforts.

Closing out the day on the turf as a few horses take the class drop into here. One of those is 1-COLOSSEO as he comes in from Kentucky in a start where he battled the entire way. He makes his second start back off the layoff and Could be tucked in just behind what may be a contested pace. 6-WICKED SUPRISE is one of those who could be contesting the pace as he has been a different racehorse since him move to the grass. He slowed things down on the lead and never looked back in his most recent start and could be looking for a similar trip once again. 3-RIVER REDEMPTION was a good winner on the turf two back as he tracked the leaders in there and drew clear late. He stayed in in a race that came off the grass last time out but his 9/10 in the money rate on turf shows that's where he is at his best.

6-BABY BOAT races for a barn that doesn’t win with many first timers and his drills don’t seem to be anything special but heard he’s a runner. Guess we’ll see. 5-NOTIPTONI, of those who have raced, seems to be the fastest. He was narrowly beaten in his debut, finished a distant second to a tough winner in his second start, then stumbled at the start of his last race but still rushed up to press the pace before running out of gas. Would expect him to be a contender if he gets a clean trip. 7-RUMBLING tired late after displaying decent speed in his debut. But runners making their second start for his barn often improve greatly with experience. I like the workout pattern on 2-TAUNTING.

4-CODE RUNNER looks like the one to beat. Not sure why they shipped him to Presque Isle in last, considering his previous poor efforts on synthetic, but he ran pretty much like a horse that didn’t like the surface. However, in his previous start here at this level, he won by daylight. He’s back at Hawthorne and back at the right level. 2-JEFF THE LION finished second in last two and in three of last four. He finished far behind top choice in the other race but was sent to contest the pace instead of utilizing his normal closing kick. Has a legitimate chance if taken back off the pace early. Not sure what has happened to 7-COOL QUARTET since getting claimed by this barn. He had been in pretty good form and had the highest speed figures of any in here. But his last couple races left a lot to be desired. Hard to leave him out but probably would have liked him better if he had a work or two since his last dull effort.

No guarantees but one would think that 3-TIGGER ATTACK will improve with the drop in class and maybe the stretch in distance. He hasn’t shown a thing this year but this should be his wake-up spot. 4-CRUZIN N CURSIN is fresh off a second-place finish against a similar group. I like that he showed the ability to finish with some run while his opponents all tend to tire late. There’s a good chance that he’ll improve in his second trip around two turns. 6-CAPTAIN’S FLAG is probably the quickest of these and blinkers on should only enhance that early speed. He’s making his first start for this barn after getting claimed from last. He could break on the lead and never look back.

7-CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER drops to the right level. He hasn’t been showing a lot since getting claimed by this barn but he has just been in too tough. He was narrowly beaten the last time he ran against similar rivals. The probable contested early pace should set things up for his late run. Both 2-TWO COOKIE RULE and 1-KHOZAN’S SUCCESS have been in good form. Both enjoy good tactical speed which allows them to run well on or right off the pace. Both have been good at the distance. Both figure to be right there at the finish.

6-MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN could hold a slight edge. She was narrowly beaten in the last race in this starter series but she was probably the only one making up ground late. This race is a sixteenth farther and she still gets the advantage of Slevinsky with her seven-pound apprentice allowance as pilot. 1-IZZY’S MONSTER has been so very good in this series. She won the first two legs by daylight and just failed in last, finishing third by a head. But even though she held on and almost won, the fact that she didn’t is concerning. Not sure the added sixteenth mile of this race will be to her benefit. 2-MO SMOKING did win the last leg of this series, beating both top runners in the process. She led for all but the last jump. However, she was running out of gas late. She’s likely to face more early competition and will have to carry her speed a sixteenth farther. Could be a tough task.

4-WHERE’S THE WINE might be the quickest of this. Filly ships in from Kentucky where she had been meeting possibly tougher rivals. She wasn’t able to overcome the outer post in last but believe with the move to Hawthorne and the move to an inside post, she’s going to be tough on the lead. 6-DEAL’EM N WEEP finished third in her two turf starts. Both races were routes but think she has the kind of tactical speed that will allow her to be even better with the turn back in distance. 3-MACHIVA came from far back in her last two races to finish second; beaten less than a length in both starts. However, she’s turning back to a sprint today. She’ll probably be even farther back today. Not sure she can close as well with the lack of real estate.

5-SOVIET STANDARD could be the best of the speed in a race without a lot of pace. Makes his second start off a layoff. He’ll be utilizing an apprentice rider that has yet to win a race here but he does get a 10-pound weight break and at this level, that could be a big factor. 7-JIM AND JIM is in better form than most. Takes blinkers off for the first time since early this year. Might enjoy the better vision. Keep expecting 4-MALIGATOR but it just doesn’t happen. But, I keep hoping.

Think 5-CADET CORPS could have the edge in this very tough field, despite moving up in class. He has just been so consistently good this year. Although he was nipped late in last by another member of this field, he was still making up ground late. This race is 40 yards farther and that might be just enough distance to allow him to make amends. 4-READTHECLIFFNOTES is winless this year but his last race was probably his best race in months. He’s always been game. Wouldn’t be surprised if he were the best of these. 3-GO EMI could be an interesting runner. He had been in poor form most of the year but suddenly woke up in last, when he went off at 42-1, and finished second. He had races last year that would make him competitive in this spot. Maybe he’s rounding into form.

With the drops in class, both 1-COLLOSEO and 9-SIMPLE LOGIC seem to tower over the rest of the field, even though they are facing other talented runners. Colloseo’s lone win in this country came on synthetic but he have never be in a race close to this easy. He has earned nearly $250k on the lawn. This should be his wake up spot. 9-SIMPLE LOGIC is every bit, if not more, dangerous. He finished third at this level in last and won his previous start. Colloseo is likely to race close to the pace while Simple Logic should be coming from far back. 3-RIVER REDEMPTION is the sleeper. He won four of his 10 races on the lawn, including three of last four. He beat runners at a higher level two races back and did it as the odds-on favorite. 6-WICKED SUPRISE hasn’t had as much turf experience as some in here but he did win two of his five grass starts, including last at this level.

Race 6:  6 – 3 – 4

Pick 4 Ticket:  3,4,6 / 4,6,7,8 / 2,4,5,6,9,10 / 1,9  ($72)

#6 Deal’em and Weep (2-1) ran very well last time and figures to improve with that race under his belt. The jock/trainer combo of Mojica and Block are a fantastic 32% at Hawthorne in the last two years.

Race 7:  6 – 7 – 8

This is a complete guess in a race where I need a fresh face. #6 Money Map (12-1) is coming off a long layoff since running last November at Gulfstream. He has plenty of numbers that are more than good enough to win…the problem is those were on turf and synthetic. If he can run at all on this dirt, he’s got a chance to upset this field at a price.

Race 8:  2 – 4 – 5

I wanted to bet #2 Ricky Bobby (12-1) last time, but he was scratched out the race. Now, he’s been off for a while with a shaky work tab. Maybe today is not going to be his day, but I’ll stick with him. He was in razor-sharp form before he went on the shelf for a brief time, and any of those previous efforts from Minnesota can win today.

Race 9:  1 – 3 – 9

Don’t like to be chalky in a big field, but #1 Colosseo (9-5) looks tough today. He ran very well off the layoff at Ellis, although he did get a fast pace to run into. This field is easier than that, and he’ll be able to save ground with that short run going into the first turn. Catalano has been on fire this meet, hitting at 27%.