Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 APPEAL DENIED fits in this race as the favorite despite the layoff lines and class drop that naturally come with some reservations. This one has been with the barn since the start and given the history placed where they can compete at this point - even if it means a claim. T. Gaffalione has been a key rider on this horse as they return here in the saddle. 

#5 BURNINHUNKOFLOVE will race for the tag today and noted as they were entered last week to run at the starter condition. The timing could suggest intent here and retains J. Ortiz, the rider named in that starter event. 

Tough race to take a short price with each runner bringing "knocks" into this race. #4 PROTEGE has theirs though should hold value and has some upside off the two starts this year and coming in first off the claim, 39-day freshening and rider change where Leparoux has had some success this season on the main track in sprints to upgrade in this case. 

#6 LONG CROW fits in this race as well as any and would be intent with the quick turnaround for this event. They return from a B OptixGRADE effort 11-days ago together at the wire in a photo for the win. Their prior form over this course/distance as well as class under a similar par fits with figures/B efforts. 

#4 GOTTA HAVE DREAMS given a look right back coming off an EXCUSE last month under similar conditions. The TACTIC- played against them to show their best and still showed run in spots through adversity and visuals to IMPROVE off of. His 78 figure earned over this course and distance fits right in line with the top figures earned by #5 HIGGINSVILLE from back in April and June as well as #8 SIX KINGS show finish on 6/15. 

The changes in circuit, class and timing suggest intent for #3 VINCITA one that has competitive races under similar conditions and numbers on par with the two turn dirt races. 

ML/expected favorite #7 SOUND DOCTRINE could present a pace advantage and that is the prime edge in this field. They have come up short under similar conditions and while capable could open the door for another to jump up. #8 REFUAH fits on class and figures on their best day that fit on par. #9 ALILNALOT could present upside off their sophomore figures and in the third start of the cycle second against winners. He presents upside off the 8/10 race both in form cycle and from the WIDE trip against the race dynamic. 

#2 GOT THUNDER fits as a strong contender in this race and presents a value alternative to the projected favorites (ML) #4 GLOBAL SENSENATION (coming off PERFECT trips/two month layoff) and #6 PURE PANIC one that come up short (B- OptixGRADE) under similar conditions this season. 

#3 SOMBRA DORADA was a downgrade on 7/29 coming off a flow-aided front running maiden win, though an upgrade coming out of that race X_BIAS and slight flow upgrade with the Fast early race shape. #1 NURSEKRINGLEDDANCES remains protected and shifts back to the main track in this thirds tart back off the layoff. She has run well on this main track with some subtle trips before the PERFECT yet dominant B+ MCL win last November. 

The early pace should be honest to assist the Riley/Bill Mott runners respectfully #5 MR SKYLIGHT and #7 BILLAL with a trip given their runstyle/similar Plot position/shape. The pace could also set up #3 FINSTER one that showed a ton of ability B+ breaking his maiden on debut and another B+ in the return last month off the layoff on the turf. With that said, his figures sit below at this point and requires another similar type of number improvement to compete with the others for the top spot in this contentious race. 

#8 G. ERIK caught a solid group in his debut and showed run in his own right with a BTL effort making an X_WIDE CLOSE after a SLOG from the outside spot. His PRERACE+ visuals noted on the day to suggest some class he ran to first out.

#3 DUEL INCOME projects to benefit from the STRETCH out in distance and should hold plenty of fitness wheeling back off the debut 25-days ago from the trip making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW after the SLOG/TROUBLE_S. Similar timing comes into play for #4 OUT OF THE CLOUDS as he also made a WIDE MOVE after the SLOG and can IMPROVE off the 8th place first out outcome.