Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 THE J FACTOR looks tough with the big drop with figures and X_FLOW upgrade from the recent starts. The drop and giving up recency (52-day) break comes with some reservations though in context of the field, still must be considered the horse to beat.

#4 DRAMA QUEENIE does not have as strong of figures though makes a similar change in class, X_FLOW (upgrade) from the 9/1 event and the edge in local experience. She has some question makes all around and when it comes to finishing ability though is encouraging with A. Centeno back aboard and turning in a published work on 9/15. #5 SITTING ON A BEACH also takes the big drop for this race and can compete keying off the sprint effort/figure back in June, a competitive race/strength, though will give up recency off the two month break and only shows one published work since the most recent start, that work on 8/8 more than a month ago.

#6 ARRINGTON is the most established maiden in this field with many starts under similar conditions. She has recorded some of her stronger efforts here at Hawthorne, something that upgraded here returning to this circuit and given a freshening after the incident earlier this year at HS Indy to reset and regroup with the positive response earlier this month. She has consistently recorded figures on par for the level and with many in this field that have shown early speed, that potential dynamic should assist her late run. 

#7 VERRAZANOINTHESKY is upgraded in the second start of the cycle the return to statebred company and with the added ground from the race earlier this month. His overall form and figures stack up on par and in good hands with J. Felix taking over. Class and figures fit on #4 TEMPLE FOOL though gives up recency off the two month freshening and distance change to overcome that requires some price compensation.

#10 LATE BLACKSMITH will make a first start on the turf though has the physicality to handle the surface switch. The change comes with a positive form cycle pattern and early speed in this third start of the cycle and has their top figures from back in June that fit on par. #3 NAGY AND DA BEARS also with some early falls into that more obvious, logical category and left in the mix.

In terms of the Vance Childers runners #9 PONCHO ATTACK has the stronger form and established turf sprint form giving him the edge at this point over stablemate #6 BRUCE ATTACK one that comes into this race lighter on numbers though another that could present a move forward on the TURF based on his physicality. 

#3 WHERE YA AT VINCE looks to hold in high regard for the connections and some intent for this one all around as he was cross entered in a G1 stakes on the AE before landing in the allowance last week. In a move not too common for this barn, they wheel right back to make this second start off the layoff from KY Downs where they were part of an honest pace and noted with the top two finishers including the 45-1 winner, came from off the pace with WHERE YA AT VINCE as part of that early pace and a subtle Plot upgraded here.

Just about half of the field shares the E/EP runstyle, something that should assist #2 CALL ME ICE MAN as he makes a return off the win and 56-day freshening back to Hawthorne. Going back to earlier this season he was in similar N1 company and subtle trips with the less than ideal ride sprint in May and a route distance outside of his ideal back in June where he was not asked (NO_PUSH) late upgrading him with the SHORTER projection in July picking up the CNL win.

#1 LUNDBURG is one of those EP types and likely to take up the E role with the rail draw and returning C. Emigh aboard. He also ran in the 6/29 N1 allowance common race with CALL ME ICE MAN and less than ideal trip for him that day when he stumbled at the start (TROUBLE_S) and raced in TRAFFIC after taken out of his runstyle and to his credit found his way into the number and rebounded with the two open length wins after. 

#4 DI’S SURPRISE made her first career start on the dirt during the first part of the meet and showed early speed and handled the surface; just taken over late by more experienced stalk-and-pounce rivals in that March debut. She has moved forward with the racing and as good a time as any to return to the dirt and find some class relief on this circuit in the second start back off the freshening.

#9 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE was also in the 3/31 MSW with DI’S SURPRSE earlier this season with some trouble in her own right on the day. She will make her first start in against winners though has foundation this season and progressive numbers that fit on par with today’s race and field. The connections were clever looking to run as a MTO though did not officially enter that way last month making a WIDE MOVE picking up a strong win to clear the MSW condition. The complexion of this field and the outside draw could set up a similar trip and even a similar outcome.

#6 SECRET OPERATION has held her own at this level picking up checks and consistent figures this season. With that said she might not present the right value today should the ML hold, the one knock where she has been of greater appeal in some of the other races this season at double digit odds. The early pace should be contentious to set up her run style and could even make a case for longshot #8 LUNARCHY looking at OptixPLOT as a Q4 Square to get in the deeper minors picking up horses late. 

#6 COWGIRL FRANKIE makes a return to the TURF for this first time this season and waiting for her to return to the grass picking up on her physicality and off the sneaky good TURF races last season. Those effort fit on par, her runstyle fits today’s race shape and looks to hold intent second off the layoff with the changes here and picking up D. Cohen, a rider that does not often ride for this barn – two starts this season including a show finish with I DID THE MATH (MSW) last week.

#9 ROYAL LAUGHTER find some positive changes for this race as she returns off the  159-day layoff. The connections had her pointed to Oaklawn this season and peaked for the 3/3 race when she took a tough beat on the day and arguably best together and clear in a win photo. That effort put her “over the top” for the next two starts and should look to rebound here and take to the TURF a surface she handled and intended for keying off last year, her sophomore season.

#3 ANNA AFTER MIDNIGHT has been looking for the turf in the three recent starts and since the barn change claimed by Meraz. The number id not come back very strong on 8/11 with the distant place finish, though could be upgraded as she did RUSH up to a chase a Very Fast early pace in a race that was just as Very Fast late. She can be given another flow-upgrade (X_FLOW) on 8/29 and with the shorter distance as well as moving towards the inside with the draw in today’s race. #5 TRIBEST has also raced up close to Fast paces since the maiden win and could try a different tactic with the rider change. She still requires a lot in her favor (and price compensation to play – similar for #10 GETOUTOFMYKITCHEN) though not out of it to stick around for a share. 

#5 BRUCE BANNER returns to Hawthorne the scene of his two wins and back with J. Felix the rider aboard for those wins. The connections will also return under similar conditions from the June 30^th race where he turned in a competitive effort, B- OptixGRADE, with a different race dynamic that race with the Fire Contention and higher 72 SpeedRate compared to today’s Plot, moving him into the Above category.

Joel Campbell also finds the ABOVE upgrade with #6 HOPPIN JOHN one that has held his own with the minor finishes in allowance company stepped up in class off the claim back in June and taking the DROP today back to claiming company, though still not all the way down a positive sign as well as Mojica remaining aboard.

#4 PATH TO SUCCESS was reclaimed by E. Rodriguez and a positive sign for these connections that have campaigned this runner since 2022. They looked to be waiting to pick him back up and did just that when entered at this claiming level last month and with the 42-day freshening back under similar conditions and with D. Cohen aboard, the rider up from the higher claiming races earlier this meet, a further positive.

#1 VANISKY shows up as the new face on this circuit and while he will give up the recency off the bench and 307-day layoff, he fits at this level off his figures and class closer to a lateral change from the races out in California. He is a versatile type to handle the dirt and with the rail draw and success on the front end last July, those could be the tactics here from A. Centeno. 

C. Block has a strong hand in this race with a pair: #8 ANGER RISING will make their second start back off a long layoff and cutting back in distance after setting an honest pace tracked by the eventual winner, Mandalorian and holding off a solid rival in Azoi to keep place; #9 LICENSE TO STEAL has been looking for the TURF all season with just the lone grass race last month running evenly. The extreme SPACED race shape did not impact eventual chalk winner, Pilkington and might have to improve once again with today’s group.

#5  BRODY comes into this race off the layoff with some of the consistently higher figures and based on his physicality should take to the TURF. The 146-day layoff is noted with some gaps in the works to overcome though does reunite with Bendezu, one that has had some success for this barn and the rider aboard for the BLANKET finish back in March (a race that held form with two next out winners), the barn looking for their first win on this Hawthorne turf in quite some time.

Number wise both #1 RED RIZZLER and #2 DOMINANT D stack up off their sprint races, however class is another hurdle all together on the win end and similar concerns as things need to unfold perfectly for the 7yo #4 GOOD YEGG though another minor share is not out of the question. #6 BLACK RUSSIAN also has some class concerns stepping up to MSW company though on an every other pattern with some of his more competitive races over this course and distance this season. 

#6 RED MOSCATO returns to the level where he was competitive (B) back on 8/8 and held his fitness from the event just two weeks ago. With progressive figures in this current cycle, a pattern to suggest they are sitting on a peak effort.

#5 ALIBI IKE takes a big drop returning here though perhaps not as concerning as he was claimed back in February for $7500 and looking for a spot where they can compete as the meet enters the final weeks. Centeno, the maiden win rider and place finish from back in June remains aboard as a positive.

#3 STOLICH could make some noise at double digit odds. He will make his third start of the cycle, was competitive along with RED MOSCATO in the 8/8 common race and should appreciate the move off the rail from 3 weeks ago, a post position that has fallen on him many times this season and throughout his career. 

Will look to get creative with #3 PINBALLER in this spot. There is enough to make the case he is not the “most likely” though as much as that is the case so is his capabilities and should present value to compensate. Starting off the year he was “racing into shape” waiting for the turf season and made his way to the grass on 6/22 though compromised by the DELAY and X_WIDE trip returning to the turf only one other time this season, a sneaky good CLOSE in the 7/28 common race behind the open length pacesetting winner, Tightrope.

Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be contentious with #2 MCVICKER along the inside and three outside runners #6 RIVZONAROLL, #7 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL and #8 DRAGON DREW also with tactical speed  to set up PINBALLER with their late run. A similar pace scenario should assist #1 GRAND HIDEAWAY one that might appear a little more obvious off their consistent turf form; making a belated return from that 7/28 event though the time off was not the plan as they have been patient waiting for turf, a couple of scratched under similar conditions.

#5 CHANNEL WON also quite obvious and likely to hold as projected by the morning line favoritism in this spot. The 10yo has returned this season in form with back to back wins at CBY and lands under similar conditions back at Hawthorne with a live rider as D. Cohen picks up the call for T. Tracy, the two teamed up for win over this course and distance with Talons Time earlier this month.