Handicapper Tips & Picks

The lone 4yo in the field, #3 FEAR OF UNION has a string of "B" efforts (3 of the last 4) just coming up short. He finds a lateral change in class back to the higher MCL condition and similar race par when on this circuit along with R. Gutierrez back  on 6/28. 

#1 SEQUIN LADY has just the lone start back in March when in for the $10k tag that allows her to race eligible for today's starter condition. He will find a softer par exiting the OC$40k last month at DMR turning in a solid figure and show finish despite the outside draw and subsequent WIDE trip. 

#3 BEIJING BOSS looked to have some intent to run during the DMR meet with some published socal works, though remains in KY makes a belated return and class change to run first time for the MCL tag for a live barn. He caught a solid race before the break back in June, not a conventional "key" race though an event that had most of the full field improve their figures from that race going forward. That slight improvement would be an added edge where BEIJING BOSS already stacks up with some of the higher figures in the field. 

#5 COACH CLINT also lands here with a freshening and out of some productive races in his first two starts. He caught the conventional "key" race in the July debut and the 8/3 event (flow upgrade) was productive with the two horses that ran back picking up a win and place finish. The race shape also worth noting as the winner, Maximum Promise scored by open lengths and COACH CLINT unable to match strides with that one was picked up with the place and show finishers from off the pace. 

#3 ENSORCELL has plenty of foundation and off the recent works training with high energy to expect she comes out running as she is race ready. Using the new OptixTrainerGrid Moquett can compete in this FTS category and would even suggest intent with J. Leparoux aboard as he has been  for a debut win and competitive numbers and ITM finishes. 

There are a couple of things that make this race tricky: the N2 condition along with the extended sprint distance and the early pace could be a lot more contentious that what might appear looking "on paper" at this race. Trip could set up for #7 MOON FLEET one that brings some upside just her second start against winners and for her ability is placed where she can compete. 

#6 WEE BIT OF MISCHIEF returns with the 51-day freshening and looking to follow up with the every other competitive race pattern in this spot. The connections will drop for a tag, a move that has been reluctant to this point and the reason for running in the HS Indy allowances looking for a softer spot to remain protected. She will return to CD where she has yet to secure the win, though each of her three starts were sneaky good especially the BTL effort last November and subtle trip back in June with the COLD barn and given the IMPROVE Projection that day - did just that with the July place finish in the next start. 

Three horses to upgrade out of the Ellis Park meet and their recent starts in July: #4 TENENBAUM perhaps the most obvious with the class change as well as racing X_BIAS on 7/29; #6 DARK FURY and #9 HIGH FASHION KATE also raced X_BIAS on 7/29 in a different race and returns for a claiming tag here hold form and competitive races that fit with the change in class. 

#1 BOURBON'S FAULT is ABOVE on Speed and Class and ABOVE+ on Plot, the lone runner in this field to check those boxes. He improved with racing last year and closed out the 2023 season with a legit EX - EXCUSE at the FG. They returned off the layoff in June in what appeared to be PREP and caught a dynamic with minimal change in running order last month at SAR - the 5th place finisher Daily Grind returned to win in a MSW on 9/2 at SAR.

#7 ASHUKA turned in a BTL effort under similar condition on 8/9 and could find the right stalking trip with ML favorite, #5 FOREST WOODSMAN likely to take pace pressure noting the "Fire" Contention. 

#9 FIGHTING IRISH recorded a B OptixGRADE with the BTL effort through TROUBLE and a late CLOSE back in June over this innercourse. They returned to this course and distance last month compromised with the outside DRAW and WIDE RUSH into a Very Fast early pace and moved into the Very Fast late pace all around playing a role in the outcome.