Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of #1 STARCOURT as the expected favorite, she fits in that role with a level of consistency and considerable drop in class from each race to date into today's lower race par. She should find herself competitive on that alone while returning to CD where she did record a B back in April in the place BLANKET finish. 

Value sides with #5 INVENTING ANNA, the lone 4yo in the field that returns to MCL company, the conditions for her closing out 2023. She returned this year in MSW company with the barn change and circuit change running at HS Indy/Hawthorne looking to find "softer" company while remaining protected. She has held her form including a BTL effort back in June and this drop appears the right move for her at this point and another that has some solid local form going back to her juvenile/sophomore season and the two starts over this course earned figures that strongly stack up in today's par. 

#5 BETTERING could sneak under the radar in this field and present value in a key to playing this race. They will return off a layoff placed with a subtle change in class from the previous meet and into the right level for their abilities. Positive intent also comes into play with a trainer scratched out of a higher claiming event just over a week ago and with C. Barbosa taking over - looking at OptixJOCKEYTRAINERGRID (filtered for recency) the pair with positive ROI 23% win with 53.85% ITM. 

#5 COZEE RAGS is the most interesting, playable runner in this field. As far as class/speed figures she fits on par with buried form, less obvious than some others in this field though right in line all the same. In terms of today's distance, the 10f is an unknown though same can be said for a route all together. With that said, there was intent to stretch her out in distance going back to her juvenile cycle and third start in the 9f Demoiselle (G2) where factors outside of distance played a greater role in the outcome. Her form coming into this race suggests intent second off and as good a spot as any to experiment with the route distance and in allowance company to land in the right time and place. 

#7 ROMAN CENTURIAN returns from the layoff and likely a needed layoff after pointing to Oaklawn and a tiring campaign from that meet. They return to CD where he has been competitive in the past and in two turn distance races.

The race shape today provides a further upgrade to favor his runstyle. Today's 50 SpeedRate is notable as throughout his career he has only had a SpeedRate of 50 or higher three other times one of those his N1 allowance win off the layoff in 2022, the other the win last June (CD) and the other the show finish on 3/1 at Oaklawn. 

As far as the runners with experience: #4 ACQUITTED projected to IMPROVE off the WIDE trip in her debut and perhaps too quick with the timing for the second start though showed interest past the wire, GALLOP+ to suggest she has more to show than the outcome. #7 KITTY MARREN was compromised X_FLOW showing a MOVE after the TROUBLE_S in a race dynamic that had the top two racing forwardly placed, finishing together at the wire. 

In the FTS category: #2 YAANI appears like she is training live for her debut and would not be surprised to see an honest showing first out. The barn sent one other debut runner on the turf in the past year, using OptixJOCKEYTRAINERGRID that runner with a BTL effort that does not show in the "win" column. In addition, K. Kimura has been a live rider in a limited sample for this barn showing a positive ROI/intent. 

#3 WHIMSICAL HEIR finds class relief at the same time returns to SA where she has run well in the past and looking to return to that form exiting the pair of WIDE trips this cycle at DMR. #4 SOLID TUNE returns under similar N3 conditions though upside off the  8/1 TROUBLE trip projecting to IMPROVE and back under similar course and distance from the B- show finish back in June. 

#4 MISTY MUPPET used a similar pattern breaking her maiden in the second start taking the class drop and similar timing. She comes into this race with that same intent, positive form cycle pattern and class drop where she fits on par from the higher par races closing out 2023 and from the August starter allowance. 

#4 MONGOLIAN GOLD perhaps not the "most likely" winner though projects to run a competitive in this spot and with today's group. They hold established main track form and at SA going back to the BTL debut in December. Outside of the race last out (WARM, SLOG and added front wraps on 9/1) they have raced at higher level protected and even against winner putting in a strong GALLOP+ over this SA mile distance back in January. 

As noted earlier on the card with S. Callaghan sending out a FTS on the turf, that BTL debut runner #8 FIGHT BACK shows up in this spot. His record could get dismissed given the 5th outcome ignoring those FTS visuals along with pairing TACTIC- trips over the summer at DMR and returns with a rider change (A. Fresu) today. Despite the result, he has continued to show up and race consistent B- OptixGRADE in each start with competitive figures that stack up with today's par. 

#1 FLEET BROTATO also caught the eye late last year pairing up BTL effort before the layoff. He returned three weeks ago off the 279-day break in at the MCL level, which does have some class question marks though should benefit from the start and TROUBLE in running playing a role in the outcome. 

In terms of the B. Galvin runners, #11 DANZING FOREST paired B- OptixGRADE while recorded higher figures, however those in shorter sprints that will be tested here stretching out and after losing ground; #10 WHAT'S THE BUZZ has the route experience some upside from the EX on 7/28 and X_FLOW on 8/24 recording the same B- OptixGRADE as FIGHT BACK despite the finishing position. 

#7 KNOWING finds an upgrade with the change in class and surface for this third start. The connections appeared intended for the turf when he debuted back in August and turned in a competitive B- after a tough (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) break. They could find a more subtle upgrade racing NO_COVER on a solid pace again at the higher condition/par three weeks ago to move up naturally here. 

Two runners with OptixNOTES Projection upgrades:

#11 REDNECK REBEL made the class change on 8/31 and off the visuals expects to IMPROVE; #3 LOADED JUSTICE also with the class change in their most recent start showed another forward move on numbers and should benefit from the STRETCH out in distance here.