« 09/27/2024 09/29/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat September 28th, 2024

Download as PDF

Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 5:28 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 GHOSTLY NIGHT is playable at the projected 4-1 odds in this spot. She returns from a slight freshening, tends to run well with time between starts and under conditions/par where she has recorded B/figures on par. Her stalking Q2 runstyle should suit today's race dynamic to work a trip - the pace perhaps the knock for #3 TELL ME WHEN factoring as the favorite, the projected shorter odds.

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post Time 5:56 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 WAKE SURF is logical as the favorite finding class relief and back to the main track following a TROUBLE trip earlier this month at KYD. His form over this course and for Dutrow has remained consistent when comparing class/trips with figures on par for this race. 

#3 TAGLIATELLE is the lone 3x winner eligible for this race as a sophomore. He fits on his best day and perhaps a further upgrade from the 8/19 allowance when taken out of their typical stalk-and-pounce runstyle sent to the lead from the rail. 

Churchill Downs Race 10

Post Time 9:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

LUKAS CLASSIC (G2)

#5 DISARM should present value in this field and the right timing/placement to find a graded stakes win as an older horse. He returned off the layoff this year with a win, though also wearing a bar shoe in the two CD starts this season. He held his own at SAR in G1 company and returns to his home back in KY. He will also return to T. Gaffalione, the rider that was aboard for his dominant maiden win back in 2022, and also a rider that has had success for the S. Asmussen barn this meet to suggest further intent with that rider change here. 

Santa Anita Race 7

Post Time 5:37 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 EL ENCINAL is still unproven on this circuit though a longshot to consider as he makes his second local appearance. He made his local debut last month in the Del Mar H. (G2) off a strong series of works and wanted to show more early speed (TACTIC-) though forced to rate. They could take up a front running role in here, a runstyle that is lacking especially with the main contenders looking for pace to target and the "upset" could come from a first run scenario.