Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 REGIMENTAL find some changes in terms of class and surface returning from back-to-back BTL efforts. Both races were compromised by the break (TROUBLES+/TROUBLE_S) and WIDE trip making a CLOSE on 8/11 and a WIDE MOVE both X_BIAS and X_FLOW. They have shown early speed and with form/figures on the main track this season that fits on par. Further intent looks in play with D. Cohen taking over a rider that has had success for this barn this season 6 for 21 in the win column with 71% ITM.

#5 GOLDEN BUCK is the new face and with early speed stretching back out around two turns should be a threat to take this field gate-to-wire. He was able to rate off the pace with the place finish last month at Ellis, though was not the plan and forced into that role with the SLOG/TROUBLE_S making up ground afterwards. He had to work HARD on the day for the place finish something to noted though has been given 34-days since to recover. They could be kept honest with #7 MOVE IN SILENCE in this field, drawn outside and with sprint speed stretching out. They are worth a mention as one that could get attention for the connections and some positives as they must run for the tag and take the higher $18.8k option. A. Hernandez has taken over a few horses for these connections and still looking for that first win (0/5) first off the barn change.

#6 PERFORMANCE PLUS had form under the radar popping up the pair of solid figures back in May and June and will look to get on track here. Following the maiden win they shipped to Canterbury, shifted back to the turf and something on the day that required the two month break they return from here.

#2 ICE AXE could be a touch softer on class based on the C+ OptixGRADES under similar N2 conditions. With that said, he appears to be cycling back to a top effort and those numbers fit in line with many in this field. Similar could be said for #3 PRINCE IS MY BOY one that makes his third start against winners and returning with a lateral change from the event three weeks ago with the WIDE trip tracking against the flow, though on an “every other” pattern must show he can pair up top figures something that has been a struggle for him this season. 

#1 ADIVA probably closer to a lateral change in class from a race par standpoint, though a drop and suggests intent with today’s change where she fits these conditions perfectly. She will find some subtle changes as far as surface and distance back on the main track at the 6f distance, a positive keying off the races from earlier this season including the local 5/25 effort, a race running back to that effort stacks up on par as a contender here. #6 HEAVENLY HASH also finds a upgrade in this second start of the cycle, and from the BTL effort here just three weeks ago. She will find a change in post moving to the outside and could be a big change for her to rate outside horses something that was not afforded to her last out or at other times this season including the BLANKET finish back on 6/15.

Trainer J. Campbell brings in a pair for this race leading with the more accomplished #3 SMOOTH JUSTICE as she makes her second start off the claim and quick turnaround back in for a tag after a rough break (TROUBLES+) racing against the profile 10-days ago. This 10x winner, fits this conditions based on the level of the win races this season something of note for stablemate #7 JOCELYN one that will be racing above condition here, though her presence in this race with that of consideration could be a tell on intent for SMOOTH JUSTICE.

Former barnmate #4 STYLE has races that fit on par and could be a positive change returning to this circuit and sprint distance. She requires a lot of racing luck with her off the pace runstyle, though has figures that fit and should sit at longer odds here given the barn change since her time here from earlier in the meet. 

#1 COMMISSIONER OSCAR comes into this race with buried form and could be overlooked off the recent running lines, finishing positions and slightly misleading chart comment “no threat” from 9/12 when making progress (B-) to finish in a BLANKET at the wire. Intent should also be noted there as they were less fancied on the day dismissed from the 7-2 morning line, a shift from their 2-5 chalk stablemate in the race, Victorious Vanda ($40.40) upset winner here on Thursday. Looking at the OptixPLOT, COMMISSIONER OSCAR should find pace to target as a Large Quad IV Square with today’s “Sun” and higher 72 SpeedRate showing more than half of the field above the ParLine. The rider assignment to O. Mojica is also notable, a rider that has not picked up a mount for this barn this season (even further) and has the call here to suggest further positive intent.  

The J. Berndt barn will also be represented by #4 BRIT BLITZ one that made their debut here back in May before popping up in the second start with a strong front running win over the Canterbury Park turf course. They showed that effort was not a one off with the competitive number taking on allowance company in July and will find some class relief in this positive second start of the cycle racing for a tag and subtle 9/19 trip.

In terms of the local group, #3 T LAW has held his form at this level and with the shift to the turf pairing B- OptixGRADES from 8/11 and 9/8 with subtle trips playing a role in the show finish. He should find himself competitive once again and the higher SpeedRate has assisted in the past and could once again here. 

The first of the stakes races goes through #3 OEUVRE one that stands out as a legitimate favorite in this spot. She stands out well ABOVE+ the field on Class and Speed and Above with her Runstyle in today’s race shape – Quad I Square. She will reunite with J. Loveberry, the rider that has been aboard for 10 of her 16 career wins. 

#3 SPICY ITALIAN was flying under the radar returning on 9/8 though given a look on the day with buried form and a look right back off that trip. She was slight hesitant (SLOG) out of the gate with TROUBLE_S that followed and finished with a strong CLOSE into a Very Slow early pace and continued with energy GALLOP+ out past the wire. She is capable of showing early speed and picking up a rider change with E. Morales in town to ride, a rider that has had some success/intent for W. Catalano especially when isolating limited turf starts.

#1 ROAR OF SILENCE will also return from the 9/8 race and given a “rebate” here after losing the returning O. Mojica in the opening furlong. She can take some responsibility acting up in the GATE though should be no worse for the wear keeping up her fitness running the race riderless. She will still be tested in this allowance condition something of a question on the day, though does find a lower par/OFR this time around. Her stablemate #8 SUPRISE ME AGAIN also finds the step up in class, a bigger hike though does now have the experience around two turns under her belt – the route experience unproven for #2 RIETTA here.

#9 LADY MERCEDES had TROUBLE+ earlier this month at KYD - a longshot that only created a further hurdle that might not have mattered on the day. Putting a line though that “start” and handicapping her prior form, she fits in this race won under a similar par back in July at Ellis, though no real strong edge should she take up a heavy, heavy favorite role here. Value should also be considered for #4 ATMIDNIGHT one that also has recorded consistent figures, returns from a win, though a rise in class and still must show two turn form back in this spot and could fall into underlay territory. 

#8 ALLOTROPE removed the front wraps on 9/12 and turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE effort with the WIDE trip despite the finishing position. She appears well-intended in this spot with the class change once again and rider change to R. Slevinsky getting in light for this race taking any advantages looking for the win. She brings in tactical speed and drawn outside some of the other speed in this field including #1 LOST SUNSET and the lone 3x winner, #5 RUNNERS HEAT.

Looking at the Plot, trip should be key for ALLOTROPE as a Quad I Square and getting the jump on #3 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY, one that brings in some question marks in this spot and while capable will be bet and used “defensively” at the least in this race. #7 QUEENIES WAY held some of those similar concerns returning from the layoff last week and while a little more could have been shown on the day the timing right back could be on her side and notable with D. Cohen taking the call.

#4 LUNARCHY finds herself back under conditions to compete with the DROP wheeling right back in here from the 9/19 allowance and holds a B- OptixGRADE back on 9/18 with a similar race par.  The change in class also factors for #6 FREEDOM ATTACK though had the race FLOW in her favor pulling off the upset back on 7/25 and could find things tougher looking at her Plot position/shape compared to others in here and needs a top effort (figure) to compete for a top spot. 

CAREY MEMORIAL HANDICAP (G3): 

#8 STITCHED looks to have some intent in this spot returning from the layoff and with M. Pedroza aboard, the rider named last summer in the Wise Dan (G2) a race they won under F. Prat at 46-1. That win did not appear as an outlier as they held stakes form and off that win turned in a place finish in graded stakes company at KYD in their next start and held their speed figures closing out 2023. The season also return looked to be a good kicking off point in June at WO, though had a subtle trip (TRAFFIC, TROUBLE-) and has been off the 120-days since. His September 13^th work was a key drill – he turned in an awesome breeze doing everything right in the pouring rain including the energy out past the wire; he is race ready.

#3 ANOTHER MYSTERY is the only other graded stakes winner in this field, though that win back in January 2022 at the 12f marathon distance at Sam Houston, a different race than today’s mile. While he has held his form this season and the edge with local experience, his races this season sit on the lower end of speed figure par. His stablemate #10 OUT OF DEDUCTIONS has stepped up in the speed figure department this season and should be the right time and place with the rise in class here. Intent also looks in play as they return fresh in this spot and confidence off the KY form and allowance win back in July. That 7/29 race turned out to be a “key” race with two next out winners (including rival #7 AMERICAN MAYHEM) and every other horse returning held their form, figures and in the money finishes many in competitive allowance events at KYD.

#9 NINEELEVENTURBO returns from KYD and place finish in the Tapit, a $500k stakes race. He has held his form this season and improved off the EX – EXCUSE and BTL back in the Daytona (G3) though questionable if he “peaked” in the stakes last month as another top effort is required here. #1 HE’SPUREGOLD is another consistent type to be respected here. While there are looking for their first graded stakes win, he has held his own under similar conditions and should transfer that form here while needing a top effort and racing luck to win – price compensation required. Similar “value” is required for #4 TUT’S REVENGE one that is likely to receive attention off the connections and pair of wins this season. Since 2020, Maker is just 1 for 8 here at Hawthorne with the lone win in a sprint most in stakes company and granted some intent with runners under 3-1.

#11 EVAN HARLAN is softer on speed figures and class looking at his races under similar par and purse though holds enough form to remain in the mix. He is still work a mention as some intent appears in play for this second start off the layoff and a return to E. Morales after the less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) and BTL effort from EVAN HARLAN with the place finish last month at Colonial Downs. Similar “softer” factors carry to #12 OTAGO though another that is an honest race horse with intent and fitness from a WIDE trip last out at KYD something that could be in store once again with the draw in this full field. 

#5 STRONGER TOGETHER finds a change in class from the open claiming and allowance company races from earlier this season. That change at the least could show intent and similar with a rider change as L. Colon takes over, a rider with a positive $1.04 ROI for this barn going back to 2020 and in part to the runner Hay Moon and 31-1 upset win here back in June.

The change in class also comes into play for #8 COOL QUARTET one that is moving forward in his form cycle and third start this season; and appears the more fancied of the Vanden Berg pair in this race and where C. Emigh lands.

#4 NOT VERY GENTLE finds himself racing above condition in this conditional claiming spot, however, is flattered by today’s race shape with the “Fire” Contention and higher 80 SpeedRate. He along with COOL QUARTET sit completely to the right of the OptixPLOT y-axis as Squares. STRONGER TOGETHER and #3 UNIFIED WEEKEND also finds a similar Plot position/shape to work out a trip and compete in this subtle, extreme race dynamic. 

#8 EVEN THE WIND is a solid contender showing up in this spot. He fits today’s conditions with current form from the higher restricted $20k claiming events pairing B- OptixGRADES and going back to the B+ when clearing the N2 conditions over this course and distance back in July. They could present value even if favored with #2 SENDERO in this field – one that fits in his own right though stepping up off a favorable TACTIC+ win under N2 conditions in his most recent start and looking at the Optix Surface/Distance Plot, EVEN THE WIND shows a much bigger Square representing and comparing their finishing ability.

Some of the public attention will also land on #6 SPACONE given the connections and 2-for-2 race record into this event though will require a “faster” race to compete with some of the more established runners in this field. Trip will also be key looking at the Plot with Quad III position and complexion of this field. Trainer W. Ward has had success here at Hawthorne in the last few years (30% win, 60% ITM) however all of the runners in that 10 horse sample were at the sprint distance and this is the first around two turns, locally.

#10 STORM’S REFLECTION follows EVEN THE WIND out of the 9/12 common race and showed run making a MOVE X_FLOW and could find a favorable dynamic here for his runstyle and post position change.  The rail runner today, #1 CAUGHT OFF GUARD was just that on 9/21 lunging out of the gate (TROUBLES+) compromised early and showed run making a WIDE MOVE into a Fast early/late pace and given an upgrade as they land here on the quick return. #7 BAKENEKO is also worth a mention with current form, though his two wins against softer and had the soft (Very Slow early and late) pace holding place two weeks ago.