Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 REGIMENTAL find some changes in terms of class and surface returning from back-to-back BTL efforts. Both races were compromised by the break (TROUBLES+/TROUBLE_S) and WIDE trip making a CLOSE on 8/11 and a WIDE MOVE both X_BIAS and X_FLOW. They have shown early speed and with form/figures on the main track this season that fits on par. Further intent looks in play with D. Cohen taking over a rider that has had success for this barn this season 6 for 21 in the win column with 71% ITM.

#5 GOLDEN BUCK is the new face and with early speed stretching back out around two turns should be a threat to take this field gate-to-wire. He was able to rate off the pace with the place finish last month at Ellis, though was not the plan and forced into that role with the SLOG/TROUBLE_S making up ground afterwards. He had to work HARD on the day for the place finish something to noted though has been given 34-days since to recover. They could be kept honest with #7 MOVE IN SILENCE in this field, drawn outside and with sprint speed stretching out. They are worth a mention as one that could get attention for the connections and some positives as they must run for the tag and take the higher $18.8k option. A. Hernandez has taken over a few horses for these connections and still looking for that first win (0/5) first off the barn change.

#6 PERFORMANCE PLUS had form under the radar popping up the pair of solid figures back in May and June and will look to get on track here. Following the maiden win they shipped to Canterbury, shifted back to the turf and something on the day that required the two month break they return from here.

#2 ICE AXE could be a touch softer on class based on the C+ OptixGRADES under similar N2 conditions. With that said, he appears to be cycling back to a top effort and those numbers fit in line with many in this field. Similar could be said for #3 PRINCE IS MY BOY one that makes his third start against winners and returning with a lateral change from the event three weeks ago with the WIDE trip tracking against the flow, though on an “every other” pattern must show he can pair up top figures something that has been a struggle for him this season. 

#1 ADIVA probably closer to a lateral change in class from a race par standpoint, though a drop and suggests intent with today’s change where she fits these conditions perfectly. She will find some subtle changes as far as surface and distance back on the main track at the 6f distance, a positive keying off the races from earlier this season including the local 5/25 effort, a race running back to that effort stacks up on par as a contender here. #6 HEAVENLY HASH also finds a upgrade in this second start of the cycle, and from the BTL effort here just three weeks ago. She will find a change in post moving to the outside and could be a big change for her to rate outside horses something that was not afforded to her last out or at other times this season including the BLANKET finish back on 6/15.

Trainer J. Campbell brings in a pair for this race leading with the more accomplished #3 SMOOTH JUSTICE as she makes her second start off the claim and quick turnaround back in for a tag after a rough break (TROUBLES+) racing against the profile 10-days ago. This 10x winner, fits this conditions based on the level of the win races this season something of note for stablemate #7 JOCELYN one that will be racing above condition here, though her presence in this race with that of consideration could be a tell on intent for SMOOTH JUSTICE.

Former barnmate #4 STYLE has races that fit on par and could be a positive change returning to this circuit and sprint distance. She requires a lot of racing luck with her off the pace runstyle, though has figures that fit and should sit at longer odds here given the barn change since her time here from earlier in the meet. 

#1 COMMISSIONER OSCAR comes into this race with buried form and could be overlooked off the recent running lines, finishing positions and slightly misleading chart comment “no threat” from 9/12 when making progress (B-) to finish in a BLANKET at the wire. Intent should also be noted there as they were less fancied on the day dismissed from the 7-2 morning line, a shift from their 2-5 chalk stablemate in the race, Victorious Vanda ($40.40) upset winner here on Thursday. Looking at the OptixPLOT, COMMISSIONER OSCAR should find pace to target as a Large Quad IV Square with today’s “Sun” and higher 72 SpeedRate showing more than half of the field above the ParLine. The rider assignment to O. Mojica is also notable, a rider that has not picked up a mount for this barn this season (even further) and has the call here to suggest further positive intent.  

The J. Berndt barn will also be represented by #4 BRIT BLITZ one that made their debut here back in May before popping up in the second start with a strong front running win over the Canterbury Park turf course. They showed that effort was not a one off with the competitive number taking on allowance company in July and will find some class relief in this positive second start of the cycle racing for a tag and subtle 9/19 trip.

In terms of the local group, #3 T LAW has held his form at this level and with the shift to the turf pairing B- OptixGRADES from 8/11 and 9/8 with subtle trips playing a role in the show finish. He should find himself competitive once again and the higher SpeedRate has assisted in the past and could once again here. 

The first of the stakes races goes through #3 OEUVRE one that stands out as a legitimate favorite in this spot. She stands out well ABOVE+ the field on Class and Speed and Above with her Runstyle in today’s race shape – Quad I Square. She will reunite with J. Loveberry, the rider that has been aboard for 10 of her 16 career wins. 

#3 SPICY ITALIAN was flying under the radar returning on 9/8 though given a look on the day with buried form and a look right back off that trip. She was slight hesitant (SLOG) out of the gate with TROUBLE_S that followed and finished with a strong CLOSE into a Very Slow early pace and continued with energy GALLOP+ out past the wire. She is capable of showing early speed and picking up a rider change with E. Morales in town to ride, a rider that has had some success/intent for W. Catalano especially when isolating limited turf starts.

#1 ROAR OF SILENCE will also return from the 9/8 race and given a “rebate” here after losing the returning O. Mojica in the opening furlong. She can take some responsibility acting up in the GATE though should be no worse for the wear keeping up her fitness running the race riderless. She will still be tested in this allowance condition something of a question on the day, though does find a lower par/OFR this time around. Her stablemate #8 SUPRISE ME AGAIN also finds the step up in class, a bigger hike though does now have the experience around two turns under her belt – the route experience unproven for #2 RIETTA here.

#9 LADY MERCEDES had TROUBLE+ earlier this month at KYD - a longshot that only created a further hurdle that might not have mattered on the day. Putting a line though that “start” and handicapping her prior form, she fits in this race won under a similar par back in July at Ellis, though no real strong edge should she take up a heavy, heavy favorite role here. Value should also be considered for #4 ATMIDNIGHT one that also has recorded consistent figures, returns from a win, though a rise in class and still must show two turn form back in this spot and could fall into underlay territory. 

#8 ALLOTROPE removed the front wraps on 9/12 and turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE effort with the WIDE trip despite the finishing position. She appears well-intended in this spot with the class change once again and rider change to R. Slevinsky getting in light for this race taking any advantages looking for the win. She brings in tactical speed and drawn outside some of the other speed in this field including #1 LOST SUNSET and the lone 3x winner, #5 RUNNERS HEAT.

Looking at the Plot, trip should be key for ALLOTROPE as a Quad I Square and getting the jump on #3 RUN FOR YOUR HONEY, one that brings in some question marks in this spot and while capable will be bet and used “defensively” at the least in this race. #7 QUEENIES WAY held some of those similar concerns returning from the layoff last week and while a little more could have been shown on the day the timing right back could be on her side and notable with D. Cohen taking the call.

#4 LUNARCHY finds herself back under conditions to compete with the DROP wheeling right back in here from the 9/19 allowance and holds a B- OptixGRADE back on 9/18 with a similar race par.  The change in class also factors for #6 FREEDOM ATTACK though had the race FLOW in her favor pulling off the upset back on 7/25 and could find things tougher looking at her Plot position/shape compared to others in here and needs a top effort (figure) to compete for a top spot. 

CAREY MEMORIAL HANDICAP (G3): 

#8 STITCHED looks to have some intent in this spot returning from the layoff and with M. Pedroza aboard, the rider named last summer in the Wise Dan (G2) a race they won under F. Prat at 46-1. That win did not appear as an outlier as they held stakes form and off that win turned in a place finish in graded stakes company at KYD in their next start and held their speed figures closing out 2023. The season also return looked to be a good kicking off point in June at WO, though had a subtle trip (TRAFFIC, TROUBLE-) and has been off the 120-days since. His September 13^th work was a key drill – he turned in an awesome breeze doing everything right in the pouring rain including the energy out past the wire; he is race ready.

#3 ANOTHER MYSTERY is the only other graded stakes winner in this field, though that win back in January 2022 at the 12f marathon distance at Sam Houston, a different race than today’s mile. While he has held his form this season and the edge with local experience, his races this season sit on the lower end of speed figure par. His stablemate #10 OUT OF DEDUCTIONS has stepped up in the speed figure department this season and should be the right time and place with the rise in class here. Intent also looks in play as they return fresh in this spot and confidence off the KY form and allowance win back in July. That 7/29 race turned out to be a “key” race with two next out winners (including rival #7 AMERICAN MAYHEM) and every other horse returning held their form, figures and in the money finishes many in competitive allowance events at KYD.

#9 NINEELEVENTURBO returns from KYD and place finish in the Tapit, a $500k stakes race. He has held his form this season and improved off the EX – EXCUSE and BTL back in the Daytona (G3) though questionable if he “peaked” in the stakes last month as another top effort is required here. #1 HE’SPUREGOLD is another consistent type to be respected here. While there are looking for their first graded stakes win, he has held his own under similar conditions and should transfer that form here while needing a top effort and racing luck to win – price compensation required. Similar “value” is required for #4 TUT’S REVENGE one that is likely to receive attention off the connections and pair of wins this season. Since 2020, Maker is just 1 for 8 here at Hawthorne with the lone win in a sprint most in stakes company and granted some intent with runners under 3-1.

#11 EVAN HARLAN is softer on speed figures and class looking at his races under similar par and purse though holds enough form to remain in the mix. He is still work a mention as some intent appears in play for this second start off the layoff and a return to E. Morales after the less than ideal ride (TACTIC-) and BTL effort from EVAN HARLAN with the place finish last month at Colonial Downs. Similar “softer” factors carry to #12 OTAGO though another that is an honest race horse with intent and fitness from a WIDE trip last out at KYD something that could be in store once again with the draw in this full field. 

#5 STRONGER TOGETHER finds a change in class from the open claiming and allowance company races from earlier this season. That change at the least could show intent and similar with a rider change as L. Colon takes over, a rider with a positive $1.04 ROI for this barn going back to 2020 and in part to the runner Hay Moon and 31-1 upset win here back in June.

The change in class also comes into play for #8 COOL QUARTET one that is moving forward in his form cycle and third start this season; and appears the more fancied of the Vanden Berg pair in this race and where C. Emigh lands.

#4 NOT VERY GENTLE finds himself racing above condition in this conditional claiming spot, however, is flattered by today’s race shape with the “Fire” Contention and higher 80 SpeedRate. He along with COOL QUARTET sit completely to the right of the OptixPLOT y-axis as Squares. STRONGER TOGETHER and #3 UNIFIED WEEKEND also finds a similar Plot position/shape to work out a trip and compete in this subtle, extreme race dynamic. 

#8 EVEN THE WIND is a solid contender showing up in this spot. He fits today’s conditions with current form from the higher restricted $20k claiming events pairing B- OptixGRADES and going back to the B+ when clearing the N2 conditions over this course and distance back in July. They could present value even if favored with #2 SENDERO in this field – one that fits in his own right though stepping up off a favorable TACTIC+ win under N2 conditions in his most recent start and looking at the Optix Surface/Distance Plot, EVEN THE WIND shows a much bigger Square representing and comparing their finishing ability.

Some of the public attention will also land on #6 SPACONE given the connections and 2-for-2 race record into this event though will require a “faster” race to compete with some of the more established runners in this field. Trip will also be key looking at the Plot with Quad III position and complexion of this field. Trainer W. Ward has had success here at Hawthorne in the last few years (30% win, 60% ITM) however all of the runners in that 10 horse sample were at the sprint distance and this is the first around two turns, locally.

#10 STORM’S REFLECTION follows EVEN THE WIND out of the 9/12 common race and showed run making a MOVE X_FLOW and could find a favorable dynamic here for his runstyle and post position change.  The rail runner today, #1 CAUGHT OFF GUARD was just that on 9/21 lunging out of the gate (TROUBLES+) compromised early and showed run making a WIDE MOVE into a Fast early/late pace and given an upgrade as they land here on the quick return. #7 BAKENEKO is also worth a mention with current form, though his two wins against softer and had the soft (Very Slow early and late) pace holding place two weeks ago. 

Fingers crossed that the rain from the hurricane stays South of us as forecasted for this excellent Sunday card. Regardless of conditions, The Carey Memorial will remain on the turf. Hopefully all four races stay on the grass. We open with a dirt route as there is little pace in the lid lifter which could benefit the chances of 5-GOLDEN BUCK today. He was claimed out of his last and rises slightly but was solid in his maiden score and looks to be able to show some speed. Let's see if he can back things down on the front end and kick away late. 3-PRINCE IS MY BOY broke his maiden in a race taken off the grass and most recently ran a solid third at a mile at Prairie. He should be able to rate close in here and could be a factor the entire way.1-REGIMENTAL broke his maiden in the slop here four starts back before running on the grass in his last three. I like the move back to the dirt as he's the other that could rate close from the rail draw.

Have to think that with the class drop and turn back to a dirt sprint that 1-ADIVA should get a perfect trip in here. She gets Cohen in the saddle once again in a race where the pace is to the outside. If she can save ground into the lane she should be able to roll by late. 4-STYLE is another that can close in the stretch as she has been good in recent races. She also faced tougher in her most recent start as the pace was extremely slow. The move to the sprint will also likely benefit her today. 5-GO STORMIN GIRL is as honest as they come as she has had a solid season. She was a game winner in her last and has shown she will dig in when challenged. If pressed early, she could be the one to emerge clear in the end. We will just see how much the other pace wears her down.

Going a little bit on back class here as 4-BRIT BLITZ looks to turn things around off his last couple of starts. He ran well on the grass in Minnesota in June and July as does find a field where he should be able to close ground in the lane. The distance suits and maybe the recent form will allow for a bit of a price. 6-KINGSBURY ATTACK ran an improved race in his last as he chased from the second flight and ran on late. He could build off that performance and threaten at a price in here. 3-T LAW has been knocking on the door for that first win of the year as he comes off back to back solid turf tries. He will also need some pace to chase but should come running late.

Maybe if Purr Sea was in here I would look for an upset but even then I'm not really sure they are beating Oeuvre today. She carries a lot of weight in this race, but the 128 that she carried on May 19 didn't stop her. She is so classy and will likely be in a perfect stalking spot in here. 2-COMMISSIONER GULCH has tactical speed as she ran third to Oeuvre in the Third Chance earlier in the meet. She was a good winner around two turns in her last and will benefit if her stablemate presses the favorite early. That stablemate is 5-RACETOTHEFINISH as she will likely be sent for the top in an effort to steal this race. She's won her last couple and finds the right spot to try stakes company as E.T. gets the call.

This is a really tricky turf event as there isn't a ton of pace in this race. With that in mind, I'll look to 2-RIETTA to possibly try to make the top and steal this one. She sprinted on the grass in her last couple and seemed to take to the turf. The two turns could play to her benefit if she can clear and relax on the lead. 1-ROAR OF SILENCE was sitting on a big effort in her last before losing her rider out of the gate. She's back at this level again and with clear sailing should get a good stalking trip. 4-ATMIDNIGHT comes off the claim as she has been sharp on the turf. The one thing working against her is her running style is she figures to be well back early and trying to close in a race with little early pace.

As much as I wanted to try, I just don't think any others in here are good enough to beat 1-LOST SUNSET. The favorite draws the fence and is the best of the pace. She drops back down after facing allowance runners last out and keeps Emigh aboard. Expect her to clear and coast on the front end. 8-ALLOTROPE should be stalking the pace and may chase the entire way. She does get some class relief as well as she picks up bug Slevinsky for this start. 3-RUN FOR YOUR HONEY shortens up as she switches to the Reavis barn and also gets class relief. This is quite the drop off her recent starts which does leave some questions today.

A good amount of pace in this race as things could set up nicely for 4-NOT VERY GENTLE to rate and run on late. After a good season last year he has been looking to regain his form a bit. He likes this track and the price will be right as well. 9-TWO COOKIE RULE should be in a good stalking spot as he has found the board in his last five starts. He was a game winner in his last as Reyes has been a fine fit in the saddle. 8-COOL QUARTET battled in his last as he was pressed the entire way and held on to finish third. With the class relief in here he figures to take some action.

We close out the day on the grass as we get another field with a good amount of pace. One that should stalk and run on late is 2-SENDERO as he runs back to a similar level of the victory last out. With the inside draw he should be able to save ground and get the jump on the deep closers. 3-NATHANIEL'S HOPE will be showing speed but may have company as well. He does get a little class relief into this spot but will need to shake loose from Euclid Avenue early. 8-EVEN THE WIND will also take action as he gets class relief in here. He has been sharp in his last three and keeps Mojica aboard. Expect a sharp effort at a short price.

1-REGIMENTAL drops and moves back to the main track. He hadn’t shown a lot on the weeds lately but he dominated in a maiden race the last time he ran on dirt. Another thing to consider is that victory was scored on an off track and rain is forecast for today. Recent claimee-5-GOLDEN BUCK stretches out a bit. He finished second in last at Ellis, meeting a group similar to this. Has the look of a contender. 7-MOVE IN SILENCE has been running competitively at Fanduel. Moves to another hot trainer after last and the new barn wins with about 27% of runners debuting for them. Blinkers on can help.

1-ADIVA takes a much needed drop in class while returning to dirt. She’s been taking on better since getting claimed for $7500 at Oaklawn in March and hasn’t been showing enough. But with this drop, she’s likely to be far more competitive. 3-SMOOTH JUSTICE and 5-GO STORMIN GIRL could be fighting it out on the lead. Smooth Justice took on allowance company in her first start after getting claimed for $4k, with an obvious result, but she just might be the quickest member of this field. Go Stormin Girl, fresh off a win, moves up in class. She has plenty of speed but is just as effective when coming from off the pace.

5-CHASENTHEONE could surprise. He seems like the quickest member of this field and appears to have only one rival that will tackle him early. Also like that he has shown an affinity for turf courses that are listed as something other than firm, a strong possibility for today. 4-BRIT BLITZ drops from allowance company. He’s had some decent efforts on turf and seems to fit but his two dirt races were awful so wouldn’t give him a lot of consideration if this race does get moved to dirt. 1-COMMISSIONER OSCAR, stablemate of Brit Blitz, also drops from allowance company but he has been meeting Minnesota breds. He can run well on turf but think he might be better off if this race did get moved to dirt.

3-OEUVRE should live up to expectations despite carrying the high weight of 129 pounds. This mare is nearing $1,000,000 in earnings while she has won 16 of 30 starts. The distance is well within her range. She gets Lasix back since this isn’t a stakes race. She barely won last year’s edition of this race. She’s going to have to run down Racetothefinish, who might be alone on the lead and carries 13 pounds (maybe) less at listed weight of 116 but thinking she can do it. I might have picked 5-RACETOTHEFINISH if this race had been at six furlongs instead of six and a half. She is easily the quickest member of this field and should secure a pretty easy early lead. The 13 pound weight advantage she receives might have been difficult for top pick to overcome at six panels but that extra sixteenth mile can make all the difference. Still wouldn’t be too surprised if she led all the way. Guessing she’ll at least hold on to share. 1-WHITE LIES is coming off her best race of the year, if speed figures are any indication. Not sure she’ll get the quick pace needed to utilize her late move but it would be nice to see her go out with a strong finish.

Wide open race. Going to go with 4-ATMIDNIGHT but she is a slim pick. She’s making her first start after getting claimed. Late runner won two of her last three starts, both against claimers. She hasn’t had much success in allowance company but think those previous allowance fields were tougher than this one. If this race does come off the grass, think 6-LEGALLY LUCKY is the one to beat. She will run if the race stays on turf, she has a nice turf pedigree, but she didn’t show a lot in her lone turf race, as a maiden, in 2022 at Remington, despite going off as favorite. 1-ROAR OF SLIENCE lost her rider at the start of last, racing at this level, so we don’t know how she would have fared but she did win her previous two races. Top jock stays up for the top turf trainer. Deserves serious consideration.

3-RUN FOR YOUR HONEY drops to make her first start for this barn. East Coast shipper turns back in distance and returns to the main track. She has had far more route races than sprints but that shouldn’t make any difference. This barn does well with runners making their first starts for them. The class drop in a big help. 1-LOST SUNSET could be alone on the lead. She was in much too tough in last but she did wire the fields in her previous two starts. She’s likely to be favored to do it again. 8-ALLOTROPE is another dropper. She might be the only one capable of challenging Lost Sunset for the lead. She has been competitive in most races this year and she could be a major player once again.

This is the best race we have had here this year. Ten of the 12 runners in here probably have a legitimate chance to win. But I landed on 9-NINEELEVENTURBO but without a lot of conviction. I like his tactical speed which will allow him to stay in contact with the early leaders without trying for the lead himself. I like that he has shown the ability to handle “off” turf courses which our course will most certainly be. And, I have always been a fan of his barn. 3-ANOTHER MYSTERY will probably be overlooked by most but he’s on his home course, he’s had success in graded stakes company, and his tremendous closing move should benefit from what is likely to be a hotly contested early pace. He might be a bit slower than in years past and this will be the first time this year he races without Lasix but think he’ll still be flying late. 1-HE’SPUREGOLD doesn’t win every race but he’s a highly consistent runner that has made a pretty good living in this kind of stakes race. I appreciate that his regular rider comes in with him. He’ll be tracking the pace, racing within striking distance throughout. 8-STITCHED would have looked like a major player in a race like this last year but this year has been a different story. We’ll see if he wakes up. 

8-COOL QUARTET could be dropping into a winning spot. He didn’t show much in his first two starts after getting claimed by this barn but woke up in last and finished a good third in better company. 5-STRONGER TOGETHER also drops. He finished a couple lengths behind top pick in last after vying for the early lead. If he can relax a bit more early he might finish with something left. 4-NOT VERY GENTLE made an unexpected move to challenge for the lead in midstretch in last but he isn’t that kind of runner. He faded badly. Would expect him to race midpack in this race and save his one move for the stretch run. 

Very nice race for this level. Have to go with 8-EVEN THE WIND. He drops a few levels for this even though he’s been running well at higher levels. 2-SENDERO didn’t show much in his first few starts for the local leading barn but was able to pull it together to score a narrow win going nine furlongs at Colonial in last. He was losing ground late but this race is a sixteenth shorter which might suit him better. 1-CAUGHT OFF GUARD had some good races when they were running him against similar on the lawn at Canterbury. He seems a bit off form but think he could be in a good wake-up spot. 6-SPACONE has had two races, both on grass, and he wired the fields in both. Speed figures suggest he’s slower than many in here but wouldn’t ignore anything this barn ships in here.

Race 6:  1 – 3 – 8  

Pick 4 Ticket:  1,3,8 / 1,9,10 / 3,5,8 / 2,5,10   ($40.50….assumes last race OFF turf)

#1 Lost Sunset (4-5) should wire this field…on paper lone speed. But he’s hardly a cinch here. He tends to give it up late, so needs to break on top. In this field, that should happen. Hard to trust, but likely winner anyway. You’ll know him early.

Race 7:  9 – 10 – 1  

Really nice turf stake….the ground could be soft, so pay attention to how the turf course plays. There are many horses coming in from out of town in this $150k stake, and one of them is my top choice, #9 Nineeleventurbo (3-1) for veteran West Coast trainer Neil Drysdale. He’s in great form and is versatile, just losing to talented Irish Aces at Kentucky Downs last time. Watch out for a “local”, #10 Out of Deductions, at a price. Block has him primed for this, and is capable of a wicked close. Has to step up a touch, but have a feeling that will happen.

Race 8:  5 – 3 – 8  

Don’t feel real confident here….#5 Stronger Together (7-2) is consistent and probably better sitting a bit off the pace. Slightly concerned about the switch to Colon, but he’s improved lately and this is a field he can beat. Main opinion…I’m against the ML-fave, #8 Cool Quartet. On paper, he’s clearly the horse to beat, but I don’t like the drop down to the bottom level. Maybe trainer/owners feels like it’s the end of the meet and time to jump ship. I might be overthinking it here.

Race 9:  2 – 5 - 10 (assume OFF the turf)

Sendero (3-1) has only 1 race on dirt, and it was slop. But his breeding says he’d be okay on wet dirt and if he stays in the race (and it’s taken off the turf), I think he’s a big player. #5 Peggy’s Way comes back quick and should have the lead, could be tough too if on dirt.