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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Mon October 14th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Santa Anita Race 1

Post Time 3:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 TIERGARTEN returns with a barn change and the freshening following the DMR series of races and some subtle trips there. She showed progression despite the finishing position and could be the further positive along with U. Rispoli taking over, the win rider from last season looking to repeat today. The race shape is a tricky read and could be contentious something to consider for ML favorite, #2 CAMPAGNE CARNIE as one that can compete on or near the lead. #6 INNER BEAUTY could be the confirmed front runner and dangerous in the scenario they let her go "lone" on the lead. 

Santa Anita Race 2

Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Trainer C. Lewis has a sent out live runners in a limited sample as of late and just coming up short on racing luck (80% ITM) including a pair of place finishes this month. #4 WARRENS FIFI returns from the layoff in her second start making some changes from the debut at DMR where IMPROVE can be projected off the visuals making a MOVE after the SLOG. 

Santa Anita Race 3

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 TOOK CHARGE can run as advertised with his early speed and looking to find separation at the jump to take this field gate-to-wire. While he does find a tougher group stepping up to this allowance level second off the layoff, the connections should hold the projected longer odds. 

K. Kimura picks up the mount on #1 SORRENTO SKY as he makes his second start of the cycle and return to SA. Kimura has had limited starts for this barn recently, however success including an upset win aboard Hang The Moon in the Rodeo Drive (G2) earlier this month. 

#2 MUBTADAA has shown some sprint speed at times though not since returning from the long layoff earlier this year. As a positive they return to this N2 allowance level with overall competitive form and pick up a rider change to suggest some intent. 33 IRIDEO also finds a rider change and needs to find his best form to compete though the connections attempting the change to allowance company from steady diet of stakes races in 2024. 

Santa Anita Race 4

Post Time 4:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 AWESOME TAYLOR turned in a competitive race under similar conditions back in July and should be overlooked off the recent August running line. That running line came with TROUBLE after the SLOG, TROUBLE_S and showed run making a MOVE behind an open length pacesetting winner and recorded C+ OptixGRADE despite the running line and finishing position. 

Santa Anita Race 5

Post Time 5:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 NASHOBA'S JOY reunites with E. Maldonado the rider aboard the B/BTL effort back on 8/10 and capable of rebounding coming off an EX - EXCUSE last month. Trip again will be key here looking for that belated second win given their runstyle though should hold value in this field and with that 9/8 running line/finishing position sitting on top of the pp's.

As noted the earlier with the D'Amato/Kimura combo and showing up with #7 AGATINO as one of two for the barn here and intriguing in this second start off the layoff. The effort last month is one necessary to IMRPOVE on though has the start under their belt and back protected today making a sneaky CLOSE and could show more tactical speed (SHUFFLE) than last out. 

Santa Anita Race 6

Post Time 5:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 RUNNING SUPER showed sneaky run on debut in a productive MSW and competitive (B-) in their second start (TACTIC- MOVE WIDE IMPROVE)  by V. Cerin on that day. The connections stepped up in class showed speed at a higher MCL level stretching out on the turf and should be in the right spot to compete here with intent. 

Santa Anita Race 7

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Keeping with the theme #2 QUEENS COMMAND has some class on her side returning to this circuit. She will cutback to the mild distance and keying off  a solid effort over this course and distance earlier this season behind stepping up to stakes company and heading out of town to race in KY. So far there has only been two runners from the 8/29 KYD race to run back - Stylish Sue (4th place finisher) picking up the win at KEE earlier this month in N2X company.

Speed figures and class hold up with #4 QUEEN OF THE MUD shipping in for her local and two turn debut. Perhaps this one a place for her and given the placement, form and timing she has continued to sprint and allowed the mile test here. 

Santa Anita Race 8

Post Time 6:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 TAB WALKER showed run on debut back in May at CD despite taking KICKBACK and rider NO_PUSH put in a strong CLOSE and visually projected to IMPROVE. While he did step forward number wise in August, he was compromised on dynamic (X_FLOW) and form cycle (COLD) at the time where today should be the day for him to show his best. 

#2 DAY AND AGE also earned a follow from the two just about two weeks ago - they made a positive PRERACE+ appearance on the track and a good place finish making a MOVE X_BIAS and appears some intent wheeling right back today with the added ground. 

#4 CANO FOR THE WIN is preferred of the O'Neill trio. He was upgraded from his debut taking KICKBACK and with the STRETCH projection did just that with a B/BTL show finish on 8/29 making a MOVE X_WIDE and continued to GALLOP+ past the wire.

Worth mentioning the BTL effort on debut from #3 BROTHER TONY and returning to MSW company though catches a tough group once again here and like some others in this field has TURF visuals. 

Santa Anita Race 9

Post Time 7:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The early pace should be honest something that could work against ML Favorite #8 DON'T FIGHT THE FED one that also has some value concerns flattered with a PERFECT trip back on 8/3 at DMR. They earned a B- OptixGRADE the same given to #2 BIG GEORGE one that again wheeled back on 8/31 with another BTL effort and B OptixGRADE with a TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip. #9 TAKES THREE has held his form this season and holds a similar run style with the change in turf course that could benefit him further here.