Handicapper Tips & Picks

Number wise there is not much between #5 MALIBU BRAD and #3 KIRILL THE THRILL in this spot where even on class there is not much between the two looking at their complete series of races. #1 ULTIMATE FIGHTER isn’t all that “outside” the box as an alternative though could still be a new face making his third start at this level this season and of the form cycle with early speed to the inside and that could be the key to get the edge and the jump on this field.

#4 FLYING CRICKET could be worth getting creative with finding the much needed class DROP for today’s race though overall requires a career best as on speed figures he is lighter than today’s main rivals. With that said has shown some progress in this cycle and fitness with the connections keeping him at the ONE_TURN and picking up a rider change to A. Santos.

#2 AVERYZ DAY can be given a look off their debut and should hold value for this second start off the running line and finishing position. He gave up a lot of position at the start breaking SLOG and ducking in (TROUBLE_S) from there SAVED ground made inside MOVE and continued to GALLOP+ out along with the 3-5 perfect trip chalk winner. 

M. Boyce looks to continue domination into closing day with a capable pair in this race: #3 FREEDOM LASS finds a lateral change making her debut on this circuit and could secure the right inside stalking trip as stablemate #2 CAT ATTACK should be forward right from the jump though could have company on the lead with #6 MY LADY SLEW in this field – one that does her best when on for lead the lead and even #7 IT’SFIFTYSHADE time with the apprentice aboard could try to make the top for their trip today.

There was a clever idea with #10 SHE’S WANDAFUL last out though taken back with the surface switch and now upgraded again returning to the turf and following an EX – EXCUSE with the TROUBLES+ taking herself out of the race at the start. Baird taking over today catches the eye and could suggest further intent. 

Looking at the Plot, #4 WHOLE LOTTA LUTE should be on the lead at the first call and a threat to take this field gate-to-wire. He has some overall concerns as an individual making his debut late as a 4yo and the layoff lines getting to the races this year though also likely part of the reason they ran for a tag last out and some positive they will run for the higher $18.8k IL-bred allowance tag today tempering the outcome of a claim today.

Sticking with the Plot, a Surface/Distance upgrade can be given to #5 DASH FOR THE CASH. He has yet to run back to the figures from 2023 required to compete here, though has been racing against the higher SB allowance class and his lone claiming start this season was back in August going two turns on the turf.

#1 SHAMEN SEZ showed tactical speed with the maiden win in August though set pedestrian (Slow early/late) fractions on the lead. They took up a stalking trip taking on winners last month though less than ideal TACTIC- and some stretch TROUBLE as the top three (all finishing together at the wire) were able to establish position and get the jump in the final furlong.

#7 QUIERO DINERO has held his own at this level this season and the edge over some of today’s rivals exiting a similar conditions. With that said, he is one that has the SLOG pattern and as a result makes his run from off the pace and finds a softer dynamic early then the Fire/higher 50 SpeedRate that assisted the place finish last month. 

Number wise #3 AUSPICIOUS STYLE fits strongly on figures as a contender though has the layoff as the main question mark returning here, a belated return on closing day. He is tough to ignore though off the prior form and how the runners from this barn have often been bet this season, a shorter number can be projected.

#6 AVIANO returns to this circuit and the turf course for this third start of the cycle and has held his form this year and fits with today’s group/par. The connections find this spot, not only where they can compete though also can remain protected as a further positive.

#1 BANDIT SWANSON turned in a BTL effort back in September and given a look earlier this month off that effort however on the day compromised by the TROUBLE something to give another look back in here and should hold value off the recent running line. That line includes #1 RIVER REDEMPTION as the race winner and one that had a more favorable inside tracking trip and from the rail along with the course profile recording a new top in the process.  

Another common race from 9/29 includes the winner #7 BAKENEKO (one that could find a tougher dynamic here) and #9 STORM’S REFLECTION one that has yet to run the race here this season required to compete though finds a subtle change in the Plot position from Q4 to Q2 and hold the effort from back in August on the CBY turf that would have him competitive here. 

This is a serious race where a case can be made for many as individuals and a lot of intent by the connections in this spot. Looking at the Plot, #8 ELI’S PROMISE could find the right trip as a Q1 Square drawn outside and tracking the very quick #6 CONGRATS ON FIFTY (and even #2 LUNGBERG should they send though one that is a downgrade from the REGRESS in August and BIAS aided win last month) with Centeno looking for first run. Going back to the 8/1 race the TACTIC- played against them as they chose to rate in a WIDE stalking trip and did show a CLOSE and GALLOP+ something tougher to see with the running line and distant 5^th place finish.

Some of the running lines and common races this season with #5 WENT WEST going back to the summer events and looking at the Plot should be running on from midpack as a Large Square (the edge today over quality sophomore, #7 KING ANTHONY) though does open the door for another to get the jump with early position, though capable all the same. #1 MANTA REY also a Square to run on from well off the pace and number wise lighter than some others in this field though did find a similar dynamic (Fire/SpeedRate) in his win back in February at Oaklawn, though a race also with a lower par than today’s event.

#9 DIVINE LEADER has shown legitimate early speed in his career and while those races have yet to come this season, he has those back races and very fast numbers that make them a contender and one to get creative with at the right number. He was dismissed from the 3-1 ML in the common race with their stablemate rival, #4 UNCAPTURED WARRIOR last month and DIVINE LEADER presents the upside of the two here. 

#5 SWIFT AS I AM took a tough beat in both the place finishes earlier this year and looking for that belated second win could land in the right time and place with some buried form off the recent running lines. He started back his form cycle in August a race taken off the turf also looked to be a PREP and upgraded going forward. The connections feeling similar took their shot at KYD though unable to get into the race with TACTIC- and fast race for the level last month showing run in spots to suggest they hold another most forward. The distance change will be the first time in a long time, though capable around two turns going back to their sophomore season out in California.

#10 AMERICAN MAYHEM scratched from the Carey Memorial (G3) and the timing allows them added recovery off a taxing HARD effort with the win in September. A top effort would have been required for that stakes race and similar here in this competitive allowance though does fit on class, speed and ABOVE (Plot) for today’s race shape.

#11 SIVAKO makes a belated return though back to the TURF and under similar conditions from the win in May. Today’s race par is slightly higher requiring a top effort though should be competitive here all the same. The race shape should also assist former stablemate #1 BATTLE SCARS (Q4 Square) one that comes off two straight wins to validate today’s rise back up in class. 

#1 BOAT SONG returns to Hawthorne and looking for their first win this season. He has turn competitive races in tough spots earlier this year at Oaklawn and upside from the September EX – EXCUSE at CBY, a subtle EXCUSE with the timing X_FLOW in the race shape.

BOAT SONG has shown early speed and early speed to win over this course going back to late December 2022 breaking his maiden over this course and 5.5f distance though could require a tracking trip given the L. Rivelli pair: #3 WHERE YA AT VINCE is given a flow upgrade from the DUEL/FTQ as part of the Very Fast (early/late) race shape on 9/19. He also finds a little more time between starts noting the quick one week turnaround from that race. He has the edge on figures and class to stablemate #4 WILLIE BIRD one that will give up recency taking on winners for the first time and a tougher group than the maiden field from back in July.

#8 ATKINS makes the distance change and likely to race from off the pace given the shorter distance and complexion of this field with runners that hold legit early sprint speed. That could work in their favor from pace (Q2/Q4 Square) and hold form from the recent allowance races with figures/Grades on par. 

#4 C’EST MAGNIFIQUE returns fresh for the connections and patiently waiting for a turf event, noting they were entered under similar conditions on 9/26 though scratched with the races taken off the turf.  He is also back under similar conditions from the 8/4 allowance when turning in a “winning” race for the level (B) making a MOVE through TRAFFIC waiting just a bit too long allowing the race winner, Towering Storm first run. They are given a look off that effort and in today’s race all around to come back with another competitive effort and poised to get the win here.

The outside post positions could be a hurdle for both #11 ALL CHOKED UP and #12 MAN ON ATTACK runners that have held their own under similar allowance/par races this season. They both bring in early speed (Q1/3) to this race and going back to closing day last year the turf course did flatter speed playing very fast and perhaps that works to their favor. A similar tracking trip from the inside could fall on #1 SHARP STICK one that is a touch light on class though did make a positive PRERACE+ appearance on 9/26 and physicality to appreciate the move back to the TURF. 

Should #13 SWEET CRYSTAL fail to draw into this event, looking at the Plot that could only further assist #10 LOST SUNSET on the lead and less pace pressure to the first call. LOST SUNSET should be able to get the jump on the other Q1 Runners under an aggressive E. T.  Baird and like she has on other occasions this season look to take this field gate-to-wire. #11 ADIVA could fall into a first run tracking trip and fits at this level, though not one that is the most willing to win, the change in class and weight break can assist. #14 LADY ATLANTIC is also sitting on the AE and while she is unlikely to take part in the early pace she is coming off an EX – EXCUSE last out and kept in mind should she draw in.

#5 MYSTIC STORM does not have the clear EX from her two recent starts though more subtle and presents upside in this current progressive (improving Grades) form cycle pattern. She was very fractious in the GATE on 8/22 and as a result broke SLOG with TROUBLE in running. She wheeled back in two week for the 9/5 race, a race won on the front end by her stablemate SWEET CRYSTAL and raced against the track profile that was tough to make up ground, something to consider for her as well as #12 THINK BLUE racing with the profile that day.

The “Sun” Contention rating is respected and something to assist #8 HEAVENLY HASH in terms of trip. She turned in a BTL effort at this level with the 4^th place finish back on 9/8 and showed run after the WARM UP and DELAY two weeks ago when in for the slightly higher claiming tag.

#3 LUNARCHY is another that has sneaky form coming into his race and strong CLOSE at this claiming level in both of the 9/8 and 9/28 starts. She requires a lot of racing luck and things in her favor making that deep closing (Q4 Square) off the pace run especially with this full field though should present plenty of price compensation to keep in the mix. 

Again if pace makes this race and Surface/Distance Plot prevails #6 EUCLID AVENUE has a legit chance to clear and take this field gate to wire. He will find some class relief and return to the dirt from a less than ideal trip two weeks on the dirt that compromised them on the day and should be able to return to a top effort here only aided if given that  pace advantage.

#8 LAND MARK DEAL could look to take first run on the main closers, the three inside runners #1 IZEONDEC, #2 CANTSTEALMYTHUNDER and #3 MILLARD’S SMILE all legit threats in this race and another any big knocks to discount. LAND MARK DEAL should hold higher odds than that trip given the recent races (upgraded racing X_BIAS 10-days ago) and overlooked the B OptixGRADE when in for the $5k tag at the conditional claiming condition back on 9/1. That effort has him on par with this group and 78 figure sits in line with the recent figures from the main players in here. 

Looking at the Plot, the early pace should be Contentious with the Fire rating and honest early fractions with the 34 SpeedRate to set up a trip from just off the pace. #9 ECHO DREAMER makes a return to Hawthorne where she picked up the maiden win on opening day and will look for a true storybook season with a win on closing day. There is upside for her returning to claiming company as well as in this second start of the cycle coming right back from the 9/30 race when she was very fractious in the GATE and was not checked out prior to the start likely the SLOG as a result.

Part of the early pace includes #2 PEGGY’S WAY one that does not look too appealing as a Large Circle in Q1 (especially compared the Square of #6 ACCLERATING BABE) though part of the “lack of finish” for PEGGY’S WAY is due to the X_FLOW in the recent series of races and even the timing when rushed right back and not fully recovered on 9/26, a sign with the front wraps added that day and something to look for in the paddock. She has shown and every other pattern and would be the time to cycle back to a top and should hold value with that recent running line and finishing position sitting on top of the pp’s even with today’s change in class. 

It is reasonable to assume Rivelli was waiting for #3 RIVZONAROLL to drop back in for the $5k tag, the number he was claimed at back in June and had been racing for a higher tag since. RIVZONAROLL fits at this level and while he came up short in that 10/3 start, the poor start (Gate, TROUBLE_S, RUSH) caught up with him late. With all that intention said, he is best when on the lead and there are others in here that can try to keep him honest (#4 MCVICKER) up front including #10 BREAKING NEWS one that will break from the outside and could assist a tracking trip.

That scenario can assist #5 CHRISTMAS PRESENT looking to deliver once again and can rate returning to a sprint distance. The stalking trip can also assist #7 PINBALLER one that is not as strong as a Circle on the Plot, though has run some credible races this season and arguably “due” for a win – E. T. Baird, his maiden win rider will be taking over today could be a sign of further positive intent.

It is tough to close let alone at the 5f distance which should be the case here though #3 TRICKY MAGICIAN is capable in this spot with price compensation. They picked up a win under similar condition back on 8/16 followed up with an EX on 9/6 and more subtle excuse running at a higher par in the recent 9/20 start. 

#4 FIRECRACKER FIONA showed run on debut following a TROUBLE_S RUSH making a WIDE MOVE and strong GALLOP+ with visuals to suggest she can IMPROVE. The connections tried her at the MSW condition off the debut and not quite to that level she has been freshened 41-days and back to where she can compete from the initial start.