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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri October 25th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 7:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
3 Double Parked - 7-2 5 I Understand - 3-1 2 Shark Solicitor - 5-2

3-DOUBLE PARKED draws well and has speed to steal this one. 5-I UNDERSTAND wants so pace to chase. Benefits from long Hawthorne stretch. 2-SHARK SOLICITOR comes off an improved effort last out. Every right to improve.

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 7:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Fox Valley Landen - 1-1 3 Great Seats - 5-2 1 Tookadiveoffdipper - 3-1

5-FOX VALLEY LANDEN is the class of the race. The five hold will be a benefit instead of deterrent today. 3-GREAT SEATS has ability but may be in a race for place. 1-TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER has so much back class. Can get into the mix and still going strong at 10.

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 7:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Fox Valley Exploit - 9-2 6 Rona Mae - 5-2 5 Skeeter Machine - 9-2

4-FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT gets class relief after closing with a rush against tougher last week. 6-RONA MAE often closes late but 10 2nds or 3rds this year compared to one win may be best to use underneath. 5-SKEETER MACHINE has speed, and maybe the potential to steal this one.

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 8:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Negotiator - 9-5 4 Beach Cowboy - 5-2 7 Mazin Blazin - 7-1

6-NEGOTIATOR has been sharp this year until a costly break last week. Gets back on track in here. 4-BEACH COWBOY was sharp in recent qualifier. Could be ready off the short rest. 7-MAZIN BLAZIN may be a sleeper at a price. Looks to return to 2023 form.

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Fox Valley Jupiter - 5-1 5 Fox Valley Boxer - 2-1 3 Somegoodsomewhere - 7-1

7-FOX VALLEY JUPITER is one of the more consistent in this field. Showing improve speed in recent starts. 5-FOX VALLEY BOXER was really good two back. Break hurt in last but can get back on track. 3-SOMEGOODSOMEWHERE closed late last out. Two of last three races have been solid.

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 8:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Melton Beach N - 3-2 3 Fox Valley Gemini - 4-1 5 Fox Valley Steeler - 4-1

7-MELTON BEACH has a leg up on these, coming off recent starts against tougher in Indiana. 3-FOX VALLEY GEMINI has so much back class. Still a solid racehorse at 9yo. 5-FOX VALLEY STEELER has been sharp in three of the last four. Can't be dismissed if at a price.

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 9:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Friskie Jolie - 5-2 4 Heidis Image - 2-1 7 Dandy's Mnm - 9-5

6-FRISKIE JOLIE may have needed her last. Every right to improve in second back off the layoff. 4-HEIDIS IMAGE is in from Indiana. May get a good tracking trip. 7-DANDY'S MNM raced well here last week. Every chance to be right there again.

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 9:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Fox Valley Monaco - 7-2 8 Fox Valley Ozzy - 8-1 5 Wowhesarockstar N - 5-2

4-FOX VALLEY MONACO looks to get a perfect tracking trip. Raced well against better in his last. 8-FOX VALLEY OZZY has class but looks for first win of the year. Gets another tough outside draw. 5-WOWHESAROCKSTAR has faced tougher recently. The class relief makes all the difference.

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 10:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Deputy Dawg - 8-5 1 Fox Valley Sidecar - 5-1 8 Ernie The Mooss - 25-1

2-DEPUTY DAWG was game here last week. Should be able to post a similar race again tonight. 1-FOX VALLEY SIDECAR found cover last week but lacked a bit of finish. May improve at a price. 8-ERNIE THE MOOSS likes this race and raced respectably last week from the far outside. Should be picking off horses in the lane tonight.

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri October 25th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 7:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3-DOUBLE PARKED-Maybe meets a bit easier 2-SHARK SOLICITOR-Hoosier shipper just longshot third 5-I UNDERSTAND-Beaten favorite rates highly

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 7:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5-FOX VALLEY LANDEN-Just looks faster than these 3-GREAT SEATS-Might try to wire them 1-TAKEADIVEOFFDIPPER-Game winner over easier

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 7:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4-FOX VALLEY EXPLOIT-Had trouble last couple 6-RONA MAE-3rd and 2nd last 2 opens; driver upgrade 5-SKEETER MACHINE-Been good here in the past; drops

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 8:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
6-NEGOTIATOR-Looks like a standout; catch me 4-BEACH COWBOY-Ready off brief layoff 1-KEY INGREDIANT-Gets post position relief

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5-FOX VALLEY BOXER-Been tough in non-stakes races 2-MONDAYMORNINGMERLE-Been close in most races 1-SCOTE’-Never give up on this team

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 8:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7-MELTON BEACH N-Indy dropper likely tough 3-FOX VALLEY GEMINI-Back “home; can awaken 1-FOX VALLEY JASPER-Check earlier races with Rath driving

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 9:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1-RED CLOVER-Forget last when 2nd tier; chance at big price 7-DANDY’S MNM-Strong finish in meet debut 4-HEIDIS IMAGE-Hoosier shipper rates despite class raise

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 9:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2-FOX VALLEY LEAH-Monster last year; capable in 2024 1-SLEAZY MAMA-Dangerous rail speed 8-ROLLIN COAL-Tries for 4th straight win

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 9:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5-WOWHESAROCKSTAR-Indiana shipper drops to score 4-FOX VALLEY MONACO-Generally good around here 7-FOX VALLEY CAYMAN-Strange fade in last; can bounce back

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 10:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2-DEPUTY DAWG-Needed last but still 2nd this level 5-ASHLEES SILVER GUY-Fits with somewhat easier company 8-ERNIE THE MOOSS-Often in the money
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri October 25th, 2024

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Peter's Simulcast Plays

Keeneland Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Miyagi - 4/1 4 Major Mack - 7/2 11 J J's Ranger - 4/1

Keeneland Race 2

Post Time 12:32 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Executor - 3/1 5 Courageous Clay - 7/2 11 Chapman's Peak - 9/2

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 1:04 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Positano Sunset - 6/5 2 Peak Popularity - 7/2 3 Take a Stand - 3/1

Keeneland Race 4

Post Time 1:36 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Our Shenanigan - 3/1 12 Tempers Fly - 9/2 6 Manage Xpectations - 6/1

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 2:08 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Tifareeh - 5/1 1 My Boy Tony - 8/1 8 Black Iron - 6/1

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 Acknowledge - 5/1 11 Problem Solved - 5/2 5 Voila Magic - 10/1

Keeneland Race 7

Post Time 3:12 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 No Nay Hudson [IRE] - 3/1 1 Judge Davis - 8/1 11 Boat's a Rockin - 4/1

Keeneland Race 8

Post Time 3:44 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 White Sands - 4/1 10 Trust Fund Philly - 3/1 8 Andrea - 6/1

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 4:16 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 Poolside With Slim [IRE] - 5/1 1 Opera Mundi [IRE] - 8/1 12 Simply in Front - 8/1

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 1

Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Need To Breathe 5 Sports Duchess 4 Sorcha Seelster

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 2

Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Mikron 7 Aladdin Du Lac 6 Kyles Art

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 3

Analysis by Peter Galassi
10 Eternally Hanover 2 Andy Over 1 Rowlen

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 4

Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Share This Moment 1 Stonefridge Drama 7 No Money Honey

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 5

Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Southview Aviator 5 Ultra Lady 7 Uncle Morris

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 6

Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Swift Talker 1 Definingthe Moment 9 Make Out With Me

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 7

Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Aragonite 6 Acefortyfour Zeus 7 Kinnder Kenogami

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 8

Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Billie Jean Queen 7 Shetrotsalot 1 Entertain Me

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 9

Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 Mystery Deal 5 Scintillating Tom 10 Southwind Moni

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 10

Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Wickedwoman De Vie 6 McWicked Move 1 Dontmesswithmolly

Woodbine Mohawk Park Race 11

Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 How Much 5 Lee Lou 2 Caviar N Crackers
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri October 25th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Keeneland Race 3

Post Time 1:04 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

In terms of class/figures, #1 POSITANO SUNSET fits as the projected favorite however the change in distance first time around two turns leaves some questions marks as there has not been intent to this point to stretch out. The rail draw should also force their hand and should be part of an early pace that should be contentious. 

The race shape and route distance upgrades #3 TAKE A STAND in this third start of the cycle. She has the benefit of KEE experience including this course and distance going back to 2022 the pair of show finishes recorded consistent figures that fit on par.

Keeneland Race 5

Post Time 2:08 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Two of the runners exiting the Hawthorne Derby deserving of an upgrade show up in this allowance event: #6 TELESCOPIC finished a solid fourth racing WIDE X_BIAS and validated prior form that showed class, progression that should carry here back to KEE; #10 TOUGH LITTLE NUT had a legit EX - EXCUSE racing in TRAFFIC with legitimate TROUBLE+ and holds experience over this course and distance going back to the April race with a rough start (TROUBLE_S, RUSH) and WIDE trip in the 4th place result. 

Keeneland Race 6

Post Time 2:40 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 STEPPE is one of many FTS in this field showing up with a longer work tab and plenty of fitness. They have shown intent to debut at KEE at this extended sprint distance - unable to draw in under similar conditions (along with #4 DISCLAIMER) on Thursday 10/23. 

Keeneland Race 10

Post Time 4:48 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

As noted with the Motion sophomore filly in Race 9, #9 PHANTASMICAL presents upside in her second start and belated return following legit TROUBLE+ in her juvenile debut last summer. In addition to the trip adversity, she caught a strong field that featured a pair of eventual graded stakes winners. This return also features the extended layoff and barn change can almost be treated as a FTS a category the barn is capable with and with M. Franco in town to ride picks up this mount as well. 

Santa Anita Race 3

Post Time 4:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Could be some live FTS especially with #9 MILES FRENCH assigned the ML favorite role. Physically he presents on the turf side and similar can be said for #3 DAY AT THE TRACK. Their works do not necessarily "jump off the page" though keep in mind the surface of today's race in contrast to practice where in many of the drills not much was asked until late when showing speed by design and has plenty of foundation. #1 ONE SMOKIN DUDE also fits the turfy physicality though will be tested from the rail (broke slog inside rival before rushing up on 10/19) and for class at the MSW level. 

In terms of the runners with experience, #8 THE SHILLELAGH should benefit from the debut and positive the added/STRETCH furlong in distance. The surface switch back to TURF is a positive for #2 GIANT LUTHER though the class level still remains a hurdle coming out of MCL events where they fit. 

Santa Anita Race 9

Post Time 7:01 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 RICH OF JOY finds positive changes making their return off the 56-day freshening. Keying off the TURF race back on 8/10 they projected to IMPROVE off the trip/TACTIC- though again compromised with the TACTIC- and class level where DROP to MCL is a logical move today. Improvement will be required to put forth a top effort especially with #10 CERTITUDE in this field one that has consistently recorded some of the higher figures and an obvious player on that while returning to maiden company. 

Woodbine Race 4

Post Time 1:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 HELLO LADIES should hold value while presenting upside with the change in class. Despite the running lines and finishing positions in the races this season they have consistently recorded competitive B- OptixGRADE, a touch short of the "B" often required to put forth a "winning" race though the change in class comes into play here to move up off those recent trips and solid, buried form. 

Woodbine Race 6

Post Time 3:03 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 SHAMATEUR comes into this race on a progressive OptixGRADE pattern and appears to have found the right level for their abilities looking for that belated second career win.

#9 THEFRONTIERSMAN makes their second start in against winners and some positive changes in this spot. As far as that 9/19 start they were racing above condition at the N3 level coming off the maiden win just two weeks earlier. The timing today is noted given the 36-day freshening placed where they fit on N2 conditions. The distance change comes back into play for #2 SPARKLET one that raced around two turns on the turf back on 9/29 though with a legit EX - EXCUSE on the day. 

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Fri October 25th, 2024

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Stakes Spotlight

Keeneland Race 9

Post Time 4:16 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

VALLEY VIEW (G2):

A competitive race with a lot of quality sophomore fillies top to bottom. The depth should see #5 KALISPERA fly under the radar one that has form to fit in today's race with upside returning to a flat mile. She turned in a BTL/B effort in the Pucker Up (G3) following an "every other" improvement pattern. 

B. Walsh has sent out live runners all meet and could hold another with #1 OPERA MUNDI making her local debut. She comes into this graded stakes event with a progressive, steady worktab from Turfway where the barn has stabled and shipped in this meet. 

#3 MEMORIALIZE presents upside and intent with the connections picking this graded stakes race to make her belated return. This marks her first start of the sophomore season and reasonable to project upside and improvement with maturity from her progressive juvenile campaign.