Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of class/figures, #1 POSITANO SUNSET fits as the projected favorite however the change in distance first time around two turns leaves some questions marks as there has not been intent to this point to stretch out. The rail draw should also force their hand and should be part of an early pace that should be contentious. 

The race shape and route distance upgrades #3 TAKE A STAND in this third start of the cycle. She has the benefit of KEE experience including this course and distance going back to 2022 the pair of show finishes recorded consistent figures that fit on par.

Two of the runners exiting the Hawthorne Derby deserving of an upgrade show up in this allowance event: #6 TELESCOPIC finished a solid fourth racing WIDE X_BIAS and validated prior form that showed class, progression that should carry here back to KEE; #10 TOUGH LITTLE NUT had a legit EX - EXCUSE racing in TRAFFIC with legitimate TROUBLE+ and holds experience over this course and distance going back to the April race with a rough start (TROUBLE_S, RUSH) and WIDE trip in the 4th place result. 

#8 STEPPE is one of many FTS in this field showing up with a longer work tab and plenty of fitness. They have shown intent to debut at KEE at this extended sprint distance - unable to draw in under similar conditions (along with #4 DISCLAIMER) on Thursday 10/23. 

As noted with the Motion sophomore filly in Race 9, #9 PHANTASMICAL presents upside in her second start and belated return following legit TROUBLE+ in her juvenile debut last summer. In addition to the trip adversity, she caught a strong field that featured a pair of eventual graded stakes winners. This return also features the extended layoff and barn change can almost be treated as a FTS a category the barn is capable with and with M. Franco in town to ride picks up this mount as well. 

Could be some live FTS especially with #9 MILES FRENCH assigned the ML favorite role. Physically he presents on the turf side and similar can be said for #3 DAY AT THE TRACK. Their works do not necessarily "jump off the page" though keep in mind the surface of today's race in contrast to practice where in many of the drills not much was asked until late when showing speed by design and has plenty of foundation. #1 ONE SMOKIN DUDE also fits the turfy physicality though will be tested from the rail (broke slog inside rival before rushing up on 10/19) and for class at the MSW level. 

In terms of the runners with experience, #8 THE SHILLELAGH should benefit from the debut and positive the added/STRETCH furlong in distance. The surface switch back to TURF is a positive for #2 GIANT LUTHER though the class level still remains a hurdle coming out of MCL events where they fit. 

#2 RICH OF JOY finds positive changes making their return off the 56-day freshening. Keying off the TURF race back on 8/10 they projected to IMPROVE off the trip/TACTIC- though again compromised with the TACTIC- and class level where DROP to MCL is a logical move today. Improvement will be required to put forth a top effort especially with #10 CERTITUDE in this field one that has consistently recorded some of the higher figures and an obvious player on that while returning to maiden company. 

#2 HELLO LADIES should hold value while presenting upside with the change in class. Despite the running lines and finishing positions in the races this season they have consistently recorded competitive B- OptixGRADE, a touch short of the "B" often required to put forth a "winning" race though the change in class comes into play here to move up off those recent trips and solid, buried form. 

#6 SHAMATEUR comes into this race on a progressive OptixGRADE pattern and appears to have found the right level for their abilities looking for that belated second career win.

#9 THEFRONTIERSMAN makes their second start in against winners and some positive changes in this spot. As far as that 9/19 start they were racing above condition at the N3 level coming off the maiden win just two weeks earlier. The timing today is noted given the 36-day freshening placed where they fit on N2 conditions. The distance change comes back into play for #2 SPARKLET one that raced around two turns on the turf back on 9/29 though with a legit EX - EXCUSE on the day.