Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 AWOL is the most interesting and lesser exposed in this compact field to open the card. He has the benefit of experience over this course going back to the debut catching an off track (poor track conditions according to OptixNOTES) and the winner (and next out) Star of wonder by open lengths from off the pace. The second start also turned out to be productive back in July and AWOL showed improvement number wise and racing under a higher par in both events finds a significant change outside of the obvious MSW to MCL move. 

A pair of common connections in this spot with Calumet holding the projected favorite #5 TENNESSEE LAMB an obvious type in this field. Calumet also represented by #3 MAGNIFICENT RAGS wheeling right back following an EX - EXCUSE two weeks ago and can step up here likely to sit under the radar. He improved in his second start the 81 figure back in August fits on par and not far off the recent numbers from TENNESSEE LAMB especially when factoring in the added ground.

McPeek also with #7 ELKO COUNTY one that has recorded many figures on par with TENNESSEE LAMB as well and has the benefit of experience with the longer distance events and a subtle excuse with the long campaign back on 9/29 given a reset for this start. 

Both ML favorites #1 APPEAL DENIED and #8 METALLIC MAN hold some knocks in that "value lacking" role and some of that with each other in the race bookending the field with similar runstyles. 
Foley will also be represented by 34 ONCOMING TRAIN one that had a subtle trip with the TACTIC- at this level back in September and the June figure stacks up on par for this race and higher than the recent recorded numbers from stablemate APPEAL DENIED. 

#5 KANT BEAT THE ROCK should rate stalk and pounce and should work out a trip with today's extended sprint distance. He should secure first run on rival #6 READY PURSUIT one that could be along for a minor share late. 

This race is open for a new face upgrading the group of FTS. A lot of the public will default to #3 TALENT SHOW for B. Cox, a familiar and comfortable landing -- however the barn does not strike at a strong a rate with FTS MCL runners. Looking at the sample in 2024 of 15 runners there is just 1 win (5 finishing second) with many at shorter odds and none of the sample runners above odds of  5.5-1. 

Orseno will send out a pair of lightly raced maidens and could be a tell they are live with at least one in this spot. #4 DUEL INCOME appears the most logical with the recent in the money finishes though projected to need a DROP back in September and number wise has not shown much progression. Stablemate #7 INVISIBLE was scheduled to debut at CD on the main track back on 9/25and perhaps just needed the start last month to get a race. The 10/19 turf sprint was tough with the higher race par and tough outside draw that did them no favors with the TROUBLE_S and still turned in a 69 figure, the number identical to the new top from DUEL INCOME last month and could project a move forward from INVISIBLE off that initial start. 

Overall this is an evenly matched group, a scenario that makes it tough to just take the favorite in this case #6 EQUUS the ML favorite assignment. EQUUS steps up in terms of race par and only fits here as a 3yo with the three career wins (often with PERFECT trip) all of those wins out of town for $33k purse and will run for $68k today - another sign of a step up in class.

Catching up on the results of last weekend trainer C. Hartman sent out many live runners with a pair of wins on the 11/10 card and the other runner finishing second in one of those races to their stablemate winner. Noted in this spot with a pair of FTS in #3 MIRACLE ON CENTRAL and #4 MOTEL PATEL something to keep on the radar with the hot trending barn. 

Will update after scratches there are too many AE in this race to handicap as is. 

#5 G ERIK was upgraded with buried MSW form (BTL back on 7/29) the class drop on 10/16 and given a look right back in this spot under similar conditions. His trip was compromised at the break (SLOG TROUBLE_S) and from there made a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW recording a B- OptixGRADE in the show finish.  #6 CAVANEL also took the drop for their second start last month at KEE though caught a tough group and higher race par then today's race. They will also stretch out in distance for the first time and hold some foundation to make that move. 

The higher race par for the CAVANAL event on 10/5 is noted as that par was higher than the pace both #4 DESPERATE PROPOSAL and #9 ITSINMYBLOOD exit against MSW company last month at KEE. 

The class relief does come into play for the second time starting pair of #1 KICKING CLEAR and #10 BALTORO (both with some subtle trips in their respective debut efforts) as they take the drop here however some concern with the change in class paired with the time off since their initial starts back in September.