Handicapper Tips & Picks

A tough race to start off the card as most in this field have not shown much to have a lot of confidence in. This case would look toward a "lesser exposed" runner doing something new: #1 ADRIAN finds a significant drop for this second start catching a much tougher group, higher race par/purse last month at KEE and every right to move up naturally at this level; #5 PARISIAN LIGHT also finds some class relief making a belated return to the races and first time in for the claiming tag. 

Tough to see "on paper" though quick glance at OptixPLOT, #2 PRESIDENT Z clear above the ParLine in Quad I, should present a pace advantage on the front end. 

#3 BACKGROUND returns to the level where they recorded a B OptixGRADE back on 9/21 and for a live barn off the 38-day freshening should be well-intended here. #1 WENT WEST also recorded B OptixGRADE at this level for the win last out though catches a tough group once again, the shift to the rail and odds project to be much shorter than the 9-1 just over two weeks ago. 

The class drop is noted on a pair giving the edge to #4 NOTAH over #6 FORT WARREN and based on the ML should be slightly higher of the two on the board. 

#5 W W CRAZY is a legit longshot to win, though upgraded with the distance change and subtle trip around two turns last month at KEE not without a chance to pick up a minor share. 

#1 COALMOON has the established form around two turns from his turf starts and wheeling back from a B OptixGRADE last month though did have the race flow in his favor and could catch a higher par here. 

#3 SOUTH BEND TOM (B-) and #7 SUPER SNOOP (C+) stretch out in their second start and from the 11/1 common race to suggest some intent for CD and even with the distance change back on the quick turnaround before the end of the meet. 

#6 BABY MAX also with a second start and from the 10/18 KEE MSW event that already has produced two next out winners, one in $50k MCL company. 

The class drop moved up #1 DINAHS GIRL last out with the WIDE trip show finish and should be competitive right back with another subtle change in class. The class change is closer to a lateral move for #10 BELLA VITTORIA from the 10/30 IND event, though had some trouble on the day playing a role in the outcome. 

The change in class also comes into play for #3 VINO TOXICA one that could move up in this spot and overlooked (especially compared to the others) given the connections. 

Speed figure wise #5 J J'S RANGER and #3 LEND IT TEWMEY standout off their current form. There is a scenario for the field to "bunch up" and assist longshots #7 REDHILL and #8 MONBA QUAKE to get into the mix. 

#8 WITS AND WAGERS holds buried starter allowance for keying off the BTL effort returning from the 216-day layoff in June and pairing that B- OptixGRADE on 9/26. They present upside in this third start off the layoff and from the 10/23 trip racing WIDE X_FLOW showing a MOVE despite the running line and finishing position. Number wise they recorded a fits that sits on par with this field keying off the 7/22 $50k N2L claiming win to suggest they can compete as a contender on that front. 

Expected favorite #7 BRITERDAYZAHEAD could hold a pace advantage in this race though there is some concern as far as form cycle (3 Red Keywords) wheeling right back in three weeks off a PERFECT trip and HARD effort. 

That could open the door to others in this field: #2 TOP GUN TOMMY projected to REGRESS after the 9/6 DMR win and perhaps played a role last month along with the WIDE trip rebound here back in claiming company; #5 TALLLAHATCHIEBRIDGE recorded a figure on par with this group back on 7/29 and upgraded with the 9/18 WIDE trip and KICKBACK last month at KEE. 

#1 SUMMER SPLASH is another logical type with competitive races at this claiming level and for live connections as they return from the 100-day layoff here; the pattern of layoff lines noted as that often comes with some reservations.

#2 ATLANTIC DANCER finds subtle class relief at this starter condition with a lower race par compared to the two recent events. Today's par is similar to the 8/26 event when earning a B OptixGRADE and consistent numbers with his dirt form on par keying off the 9/25 figure. 

The change in distance is the prime concern for #6 OWN THE FIELD at a shorter number and similar for #8 RAGING one that will also step up in class first off the claim. 

#5 HARLEEZY wheels back from a B place finish under similar conditions though one that has gate issues where trip/pace is key for things to unfold perfectly for the top spot. Common rival #4 CAWKAB with a less than ideal TACTIC- on that day has upside of the two from that event and tactical speed to fit today's race shape.

#9 MUCHO MOJO also has some competitive for to key off of though slightly below on OptixGRADE from recording a B, something needed for the top spot. 

#4 BUSINESS MODEL can IMPROVE wheeling right back from the 11/2 less than ideal trip playing a role in the outcome while to their credit still recording a B- OptixGRADE. 

#1 ROMAN CENTURIAN had a look in their recent start and some subtle trips often self-inflicted with the SLOG pattern. That is noted overall though does find considerable class relief while in form and should hold value here with intent the connections making that key change. #8 ROCCO STRONG also taking the drop looking for the right spot to move up though has shown a decline since the PERFECT win at SAR in August. 

#6 EMBER had a PERFECT trip and just came up short at this level with the place finish last month. Overall they lack any strong edge in this field with many of today's rivals returning with a change in class. Their runstyle also sits in line with #2 NEPAL UP with the much Larger Quad II Square by comparison.