Handicapper Tips & Picks

#1 VITTORIO takes the biggest drop in his career in class, purse and par and should have zero excuses on that front. While the pace was moderate on 10/18 they were WIDE tracking before losing ground and the race winner, Banishing did rally from off the pace to win by open lengths. 

While #8 SLAM DIEGO is logical to win right back in this spot, #7 YOLO CALLS is worth a stab as an alternative. The poor WEATHER track conditions and poor start (SLOG TROUBLE_S) had them compromised early making a WIDE RUSH X_FLOW before losing ground - reasonable given the Fire/58 SpeedRate that day as well as returning from the layoff. They come back from another 54-day break and ideally would have preferred back on shorter rest though perhaps that had to do with the claim and placement here while encouraging to see R. Bejarano aboard. 

Trainer B. Lynch has sent out live runners this month with 11 starters (3-2-2) hitting a 27% win and positive ROI noted with the class dropping #1 HAUNTED FLAME appearing well intended with the class change (entered 2x for MCL company) returning from the three month break. 

#11 GOLDEN ICE takes the drop today and while they still must step up in the speed figure department, they have some subtle trips and lacking any "red" in the OptixGRID Past 3 Runlines. the early pace could be honest given the complexion of this field, something GOLDEN ICE has yet to see since the CNL debut making a WIDE MOVE into the show finish. J. Torres also named aboard AE #13 REMAINING NAMELESS is worth a mention should they draw into this race finding subtle class relief (lower par) in this event on the turnaround and stretch with numbers on par with an every other pattern upside. 

It is encouraging to see the rise in class for #1 CATCHING HEAT first off the S. Asmussen claim. The DROP was logical following the visuals back in August at SAR and to their credit made a CLOSE into a Slow early and Very Slow late pace last month at KEE earning a B- OptixGRADE. Not shown on the chart or tape was the aggressive WARM_UP ahead of the race and should be fit all things considered in this third start off the layoff. 

Tough to get creative in this spot with the two logical ML favorites #1 SOMBRA DORADA and #5 SHARPER GAL in this spot. If there is a scenario where the two battle on the lead it would still take a lot of racing luck for #2 TEARDROP TIARA, #4 SARISSA  and #9 ELLIOTT MOON to pull off the upset though the "best" closers/Squares sitting from off their Q1 rivals. 

#3 THE PRINCE'S SPUR holds a B OptixGRADE over this CD main track at the 12f marathon distance while in allowance company keying off a race last September. Not all things behind equal as that race was off-the-turf and a lower par than today's race though they showed they can compete at this level and in form from the races this season all a lateral move into today's event. 

#4 WINTER'S LION will make a first start at the 12f distance though has shown some intent to run longer and has recency on his side. He also returns as a flow upgrade (X_FLOW) from the stakes event last month at RP earning a B- OptixGRADE. His form should provide value something of an alternative to #2 GENERAL MATHIS one that would not be any surprise in here though does not hold any strong edge with a slight rise in class for today's event. 

#6 MULTIPLICATION was given an upgrade on 10/27 making their second start and off a subtle trip with two turn foundation first out at IND. She set a solid pace contested last month and appears intent as the connections wheel right back for this race in 25-days. 

The two turn foundation also follows #2 FEARLESS LADY exiting a WIDE trip last month at KEE. She was upgraded from 9/15 sprint debut with a subtle trip from the rail pulling in a strong GALLOP+ and encouraging to with the all around improvement last month though will be required to step up again with today's race potentially a higher par. 

A lot of attention will fall on #1 BOURBON SERENGETI primarily through the connections paired with the drop in class. All around they fit as an individual in the race as a whole project to deal with Fire Contention and could be main hurdle and would open the door for an upset. 

That takes value and creativity something not necessarily present on #7 ROMANTIC DANCER taking a significant step up in class and will get attention from the speed figure players ignoring the other key handicapping factors. Their stablemate #9 BELLA HAZE should present value and holds buried form and figures to compete. Since the MSW win last year they have been placed above their abilities and the drop here a reasonable one to find a competitive level. 

Similar consideration and even intent could follow #6 ZAPPLE in this second start off the layoff and could fall into a favorable (Q2 Square) trip. There has not been much overall progression since the dominant (B+) MSW win and in the juvenile campaign though the placement in stakes allowance company with a variety of class, circuit and distance along with the layoffs must be factored with the overall race record. 

#2 HATTIE BLOOM also find some class relief and one that has some upside from subtle main track trips earlier this year. That along with current form and figures suggests they can transfer their form in this spot. Further upside from the 11/3 trip unable to overcome the outside draw with an X_WIDE trip before losing ground (NO_KEEP) and not asked (NO_PUSH) after. 

#5 TELESCOPIC is cross-entered in the stakes race on Saturday given a look there (full analysis in the Stakes Spotlight) and here depending on which spot they decide to run in. 

#4 THOMAS AQUINAS has changed up their runstyle as of late and could show more tactical speed today looking to sit off projected favorite #7 NAVY SEAL and take first run. THOMAS AQUINAS brings in progressive form in this current form cycle stretching back out from the recent mile races. One of those the 10/18 common race with #6 SEA SINGER one that makes their second start off the layoff and fits based on the form from the summer along with the IMPROVE Projection after the TROUBLE trip back in August at MTH. 

Of the runners with foundation, #9 GATE TO PARADISE is preferred over #1 UPON A STAR and #6 LORD I WONDER in this race with stronger form and figures back in California and upside with the circuit switch for this second start off the layoff, the STRETCH in distance as well as barn change with P. Eurton sending out live runners as of late.

Those runners with experience and recency could hold an edge over others making belated returns or debuts here late in the year/meet though there would not be any shock to see one step up. #2 HERE'SYOURTROUBLE makes a very belated second start and keying off a BTL debut behind quality graded stakes Just FYI runner last summer. She has worked steadily as of late for B. Walsh, a barn that has had a solid year and live runners as of late.

Trainer W. Walden also has had success this season and noting the debut here for #3 CATCHPHRASE. Some of that success has been with FTS sending out 14 this year with two MSW winners and 50% finishing ITM though more than half of that sample SLOG/TROUBLE_S and despite hustling L. Saez aboard will see how they get out of the gate here. The gate issues with FTS is also noted out of the P. Bauer barn as they show up with #8 LADY GO GO though another that can still perform first out with just one winner this year though 46% ITM. They bring in a steady, solid work tab to suggest they are race ready and an honest showing on debut.