Handicapper Tips & Picks

While it is reasonable to assess #7 EVAN ON EARTH as the "most likely" in this spot, prior efforts under similar MSW conditions suggest class weakness and would require others in this field to remain the same and similar from the FTS. #1 PARTYVICIOUS is intruguing making a belated second start and has shown intent for this meet and similar conditions scratched back on 10/31, off-track/muddy conditions that day. Going back to the debut earlier this year, they were part of the majority of the field that was off SLOG/RUSH and chased behind the eventual open length winner at FG. The barn change is noted and while A. West is looking for initial success on this circuit this year, the barn has sent out live runners this month at HS Indy and perhaps the runner and timing to turn things around. 

#7 GIRL OF MY DREAMS brings in current form in this third start off the layoff and upside wheeling back from an EX - EXCUSE three weeks ago. They were compromised at the GATE unprepared at the start TROUBLES+ taken out of their runstyle and showed run (MOVE NO_PUSH) despite the running line and finishing position to suggest they can IMPROVE. 

#12 DOT is an interesting longshot should they draw into this race. There has been intent to return to the turf and a versatile type. Intent could come into play here wheeling right back in 12-days and following the SLOG under similar conditions here.

#1 MERLOTTI not the most likely but a capable longshot with buried form and numbers that fit on par with a return to a top effort. Thier form coming into this race is buried going back to Hawthorne racing X_BIAS WIDE with TROUBLE on the turf back on 9/8 and less than ideal timing on short rest and with another WIDE NO_PUSH trip on 9/28. Freshened 36-days before returning on 11/1, they turned in a BTL/B- effort with TRAFFIC TROUBLE against the race dynamic playing a role in the outcome. 

Both #6 BIG TROUBLE (B/BTL) and #7 HAY STACK (B-/TRAFFIC TROUBLE) can be upgraded showing up under similar conditions following competitive efforts in their most recent start, the 10/20 common race at KEE. 

#9 PARISH LANE is intruging as a case can be made for upside and improvement number wise off their races to date. That must be the case (and for #3 BOURBON THIEF stepping up to take on winners) to compete here though since the debut win with a less than ideal trip has yet to run a "bad" race given the trips timing and placement that followed. #2 MOONLIGHT GAMBLER returns from the 9/5 common race with PARISH LANE on 9/5 at KYD and also ran in the 10/10 KEE allowance, a race that has been mildly productive, however those runners with success doing so in claiming company. 

#5 BOB'S KID is upgraded from the X_FLOW pacesetting run at this level last month in the 10/25 common race, though will be tested with the two class droppers #1 FARLEY HALL and #2 FREEDOM OF SPEECH runners that should move up naturally with that change. 

Morning line favorite #4 SAQEEL is weaker in that role for this race with the change in class stepping up in race par and pattern of layoff lines, opening up the race for value alternatives. 

#1 TOUCHDOWN BROWN could drift up from the ML given the distance change though a change with the STRETCH out that could be a positive; #7 READY TO POUNCE was claimed for $25k off the win back on 9/25 and given a pass wheeling back in three weeks with the class rise on 9/28 and similar kept protected last month at the extended sprint distance and returns to both the mild two turns and claiming level here to rebound. 

The 5f distance might ideally be too short for #6 BOLT SUPREMACY though there are other factors to upgrade in this race off current and buried form. To their credit they closed out the 2023 season over this course and distance with a BTL effort in the 9th place result and returning this year from the layoff improved race-to-race number wise. In addition, they find a rider change, a race shape that should allow them some early pace (50 SpeedRate) to target with their off the pace runstyle along with that foundation in the third start of the season. 

This is a competitive race and contentious race shape that will force ML favorite #2 WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE to show up as much the best off the 76-day layoff to repeat for a third straight win. 

The race shape all together could prove an alternative looking to get creative and edge to recency: #5 NAIDA should improve in this second start (PREP) off the long layoff. They recorded a solid figure in the juvenile debut and projecting upside off that number could run to a new top here. The 10/25 race was also the layoff return for #1 LADY MARYANN one that had TROUBLE_S and chased evenly (C+) along the inside. They are not always the most consistent in running a top effort and higher speed figure though on her best day has recorded some of the higher numbers in this field, identical to WISHTHEYALLCOULDBE and projects to hold plenty of price compensation to take a stab. 

#6 ANDIAMO RAGAZZA coming into this race with current form and hidden dirt form including a legit EX - EXCUSE in against open company in the Fleet Treat Stakes back in July and rebounded with a B+ winning at the statebred N1X level in their next start.

#6 THATSITTHATSALL is playable at the right number with plenty of races at this level that fit on par number wise and the B under similar N2 conditions from back on 10/2. A top effort and trip is key and where value is required, though should be overlooked in this group and following the recent 7th place outcome. 

#9 WILD QUEENIE presents value in this field and an alternative to #8 HOLIDAY IN JAIL taking a big, big drop with numbers that fit though without an edge in this group as well as #10 BLACKDIAMOND DINNY on short rest coming off a PERFECT trip NO_FINISH BLANKET finish one week ago. WILD QUEENIE finishing in a BLANKET/B- at this level on 10/10 and upgraded from the 10/31 effort making a MOVE X_FLOW could find the right dynamic for their runstyle in today's race shape. 

8-FOXMAN-Drops with first Lasix

6-HOO NIEN-Wakes up with driver switch

5-SULLENBERGER-Just 2nd when dropped to this level

6-LOUS MANDALORIAN-Exits stakes; much tougher tonight

7-RUMBLEINTHEVALLEY-Won the last time she raced at this level

2-SWAN APPEAL-Indy shipper; tough connections

5-ERNIE THE MOOSS-Just missed as the favorite

6-MAZIN BLAZIN-Meets a bit softer crew

1-HEZARENEGADE-Had some trouble in last

4-PLATINUM SHARK-Comes off troubled trip

5-SPARKLING DIVA-In from Hoosier; might be in easier

3-LION VIRGIN-Finishes with good energy

1-TRUFFLE DOG-Just moved a bit too soon in last

7-INTIMIDATION-Just beat most of these

8-CAPTAIN SLEAZE-Good form; just missed

4-AMERICAN FASHION-Drops into a confidence-building spot

8-BROOKVIEW EL ZORRO-Indy shipped been meeting much tougher

1-OMAHA STORM CHASER-Good inside speed can lead throughout

8-JIMMY JACKPOT-Not sure why he’s eligible but…

1-BLAZIN GRACE-Still a maiden but fast and in good form

6-SCORECARD RED-Broke in last but still finished second

3-GALLANT ATTRIBUTE-Great form and better post

4-PETE AND REPEAT-Dominated maidens in local debut

2-R TYLER TOWNE-Inside speed can surprise

1-BET MINE-Last was too tough; right spot tonight

2-A MAJOR OMEN-Came from far back to narrowly miss

9-NUI BA DEN-Made up 15 lengths to win last going away