Handicapper Tips & Picks

#7 ADDED MISCHIEF projected to move up on the DROP and going back to the debut last October at KEE and presents upside in this second start back off the layoff with the change in class here. The quick turnaround could be a positive sign as well as remaining in for $50k rather than take a more significant drop. In each start since the debut last year, the numbers have improved and the gate efficiency as well with local experience back in two weeks from a C+/TRAFFIC trip. 

#4 NAPA SPIRIT holds consistent figures that fit on par and returning from a BTL effort under similar conditions three weeks ago provides a slight value alternative as the projected third choice. 

#7 JAMIESTA also projects to hold some required value as a deeper closer (Q4 Square) in this race. The early pace (Fire) should assist their runstyle and finds some class relief wheeling right back in just over a week perhaps intent finding a better level for their abilities. Trip and form for #2 READY FOR A FIGHT is similar to #1 EXHANGE DAY and based on the ML presents clear value comparing the two. 

Tough to knock a potential pace advantage #7 SAUCY NAME or the class drop for #3 PRETTY GOOD JOKE in this event as logical type. #4 LILLZ STAR projected to IMPROVE after the 10/12 effort and did just that at this level exiting the 11/2 common race and should be competitive right back under similar conditions. 

#4 GOLDEN TEST has a very live look in this race and appears well-intended on the drop and quick turnaround. They followed a similar form cycle pattern leading into the dominant B+ maiden win back on 9/8 when in for the $25k tag and returns to those conditions here. 

CHILUKKI STAKES (G3):

A strong group of fillies and mares lined for the one turn mile distance where any with their picture taken would not be a surprise. #6 POSITANO SUNSET appears peaked for this race and pointed to this event. She holds class from her 2022 juvenile beginnings breaking her maiden over the CD course and starting off the sophomore season in graded stakes company at GP. That sophomore season closed out pairing wins befor returning from the layoff in April. She has been knocking on the door looking for the first win though competitive all season including races in graded stakes company. this start is her third start of this current form cycle and while she finished second in the two recent starts, the figures on the lower side could see her overlooked here despite those finishing position. Fitness should also have her peaked for this race as the connections stretched her out around two turns for the first time last month and pointed for this one mile, one turn cutback. 

COMMONWEALTH TURF STAKES (G3):

Many of the runners wheel back from the Bryan Station (G3) last month at Keeneland and a slight class edge exiting graded stakes company. #9 EVADE was making his first start around two turns that day and raced RANK like a horse that needed the route experience and some upside as they keep him going long here. A couple more subtle trips including #7 LAGYNOS in part to TACTIC- and notable as they return with a key rider change with F. Prat taking over. The race flow upgrade for #1 MY BOY PRINCE setting the pace before NO_FINISH late and the top two DeVaux trainees finishing together in a photo for the win and taking over late from #8 HERCHEE one that had a PERFECT trip in their show finish. 

#2 TELESCOPIC could again present as a live longshot with buried form, figures and class that fits on par. Outside of the Hawthorne Derby when racing WIDE X_BIAS he has run against older rivals and returns to face straight sophomore company. Following the WIDE trip in Stickney, he returned on very short rest for the 10/19 allowance at KEE and against parked WIDE racing against a course that favored runners inside and today moves to an inside post that should assist with trip. 

The Hawthorne Derby is worth a mention as the winner of that race #4 AK SAR BEN DERBY returns here to show that 9-1 upset win was no fluke. His effort on the day earned a new top figure and while he has been given time to recover he must show up with a similar effort and with the pair of wins sitting on top off the pp's, will find a big share of public attention today. 

#3 DASHMAN also brings in form and class from a BTL effort last out in the JC Derby Invitational (G3) at BAQ. While he has shown improvement returning as a sophomore, the progression has come with the longer distances and noted as they cut back here. 

3-JUSTA HINTA SPICE-Tough with the drop

6-PERLUCKY-Always a threat on the lead

2-GRAB DA MONI-Races right off the lead

4-BEACH COWBOY-Seems much faster than his foes

2-PONDA BEACH-Second Lasix; beware

3-FOX VALLEY PRESLEY-Off since June but chance

1-MARG’S BUDDY-Could post mild upset from the rail

2-JEWELS FOR CHAMP-Speed in last but can fly late

6-PACIFIC ROLL-Finishes with a rush

2-DIALOGUE-They’ll have a tough time beating him

1-DANDY’S FREEDOM-Will be motoring late

5-FOX VALLEY PEPPER-Best puts him right there

5-LOUISE’S LEGACY-Kadabra winner beat the rest of these at least once

6-SUNBURNT SILVERADO-Was favored over top choice in Kadabra but broke

1-FRONTIER MARSHALL-Rail draw helps his chances

5-GOOMSTER-Choice but been breaking a lot lately

6-LOULITA-She’s in the hunt almost every time

1-NEVER MIND-Had 3-race win streak snapped in last

6-CASH MONEY TWENTY-Won 10 of 11

5-BATTLIN BOB-Battled top choice in last couple

2-FOX VALLEY BOXER-Wired the fields in last two

6-FOX VALLEY REEVA-Back from Indy; drops

5-AMY MOOSS-Just second versus this type

3-SOMESTARSANDI-Speed drops with 2^nd Lasix

6-HI HO HEZ SILVER-Nailed “Sailor” late in last

2-SAILOR SAM-Will have to be caught

4-FLICKADAWRIST-Maybe best of the rest

2-TOO INFINITY-Improves with move to inside post

5-HF PATRICK-Was second in last two

4-ENRICO PALLAZZO-The class drop is a big help