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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun November 24th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:27 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 PARCHMENT PARTY showed a ton of class winning both juvenile starts with strong figures and B+ OptixGRADES. While he has yet to return to that outcome this season he has held his own coming back against older rivals and finds a subtle change to straight sophomore here. Each race has been more competitive than it may appear on paper and than the results gives credit. They recorded a B- OptixGRADE off the layoff at KEE with a strong GALLOP+ and given a massive upgrade from the 11/9 start making a MOVE in TRAFFIC X_FLOW playing a major role in the outcome they can IMPROVE on here. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:25 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Perhaps not only this horseplayer expected a little more from #5 COME AS YOU ARE as the connections wheel right back in just over a week (11/13) for this spot. The quick turnaround is not new for them and could be a hidden positive keying off the B-/BTL effort with a similar move and conditions on 9/15. 

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This race should present value should #2 COPPOLA hold the role of the favorite on race day. It is not that they are not capable, but the intent could be a "prep" returning from a 50-day freshening with the GP meet not far off in the horizon and a stakes win is probably on the radar rather than an allowance win here. #3 RUN CARSON also is capable though has been able to pick up wins with favorable trips under a lower race par than today and does not present the value required with those factors in play. From a pace standpoint they must also deal with #6 JOE SHIESTY another that could get public attention here as the more "obvious" alternative - those three all Q1 Circles. 

Longshot #7 LET MY PEOPLE GO ideally might prefer more ground though on their best day fits at this level and with form this season and in line to compete. Looking at the Plot they can work an off the pace trip with a strong closing kick a Large Square in line with #1 DHABAB and #9 DOUBLE CLUTCH and sure to be overlooked of that set. 

Del Mar Race 9

Post Time 6:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#13 SIENNOIS comes into this race with buried form in the second start off the layoff. They will also avoid some stablemates including King of Gosford, the winner of the Let It Ride Stakes - their most recent start. Form has been consistent including the pair of BTL effort prior to the MSw win in June and finished as part of the BLANKET finish on 7/21 with a less than ideal TACTIC- on the day. 

#7 NASHOBA'S JOY also brings in overall form keying off a BTL effort back on 8/10 as well as in the 11/4 event three weeks ago. Those two efforts were split by an EX - EXCUSE on 9/8 and despite the 8th place outcome recorded B- with the TACTIC- trip at SA under similar conditions to today's race in October. 

Woodbine Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 JULIE'S MIST had a look at this level just over a week ago with buried form and placed at the level where she can compete. While the outcome left something to be desired, they return here with some upside back under similar conditions and with the stretch out in distance. 

Woodbine Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#1 SPEEDEEMAN follows a favorable form cycle pattern to suggest they can return to a top effort here. The connections also looking to make the task easier dropping down from the recent higher OC $40k events to run here for the $25k tag. The race shape and the rail could prove a further positive tracking inside behind the projected pacesetters with first run on the closers.

Woodbine Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 RAT PORTAGE should hold value with the two recent finishing positions and speed figures impacted by trip, timing and class level. They find a change in this third start of the cycle back where they can and have been competitive in the past picking up checks as well as the win keying off the 6/30 race. 

Woodbine Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

While #3 FRENCH HORN is logical, the BTL debut from #2 AWESOME BEAT is tough to ignore and given a look here. Despite the place finish three weeks ago they recorded a B OptixGRADE making a MOVE through TRAFFIC with the win/show finishers runners that race forward throughout. 

Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun November 24th, 2024

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Peter's Simulcast Plays

Gulfstream Park Race 1

Post Time 11:20 AM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Lomax 6 I'm Due 5 Maktub

Gulfstream Park Race 2

Post Time 11:49 AM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Miguel's Belle 1 Red Hot Spark 6 Unrelentless

Gulfstream Park Race 3

Post Time 12:18 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Cerchi 2 Reina Mar 6 Bomb Squad

Gulfstream Park Race 4

Post Time 12:47 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
6 Blazing Hot 9 Sweet Lazarus 4 Grand Jefe

Gulfstream Park Race 5

Post Time 1:16 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Lita 7 Spirit of Victory 3 Moonlight Vision

Gulfstream Park Race 6

Post Time 1:46 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Dream Concert 7 Imonra 5 Girvin Girl

Gulfstream Park Race 7

Post Time 2:16 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Cleopatra's Nile 4 Tinta Roja 3 Escape Room

Gulfstream Park Race 8

Post Time 2:46 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
4 Forwardly 1 Whateverwilbewilbe 3 Don't Answer

Gulfstream Park Race 9

Post Time 3:16 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Altazor (ARG) 5 Yamato 2 Boppy O

Gulfstream Park Race 10

Post Time 3:46 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
1 Karaya 3 My Lady James 7 American Starlet

Gulfstream Park Race 11

Post Time 4:16 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
5 Captain Junuh 2 Prince of Danger 8 Midnight Boss

Mountaineer Park Race 1

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Huggin and Lovin - 7/2 8 Liar for Hire - 9/2 6 Kingdom's Spirit - 4/1

Mountaineer Park Race 2

Post Time 6:25 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 J P's Gladys - 6/1 5 Mizzen - 6/1 2 Moon Me Again - 4/1

Mountaineer Park Race 3

Post Time 6:50 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 T N T Nova - 6/5 5 Morning Holiday - 5/1 4 Kays Heavenly Star - 4/1

Mountaineer Park Race 4

Post Time 7:15 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
3 Shes Hot to Trot - 7/2 10 Autism Counts - 4/1 2 Deficit Maja - 9/5

Mountaineer Park Race 5

Post Time 7:40 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
7 Sis Boom Bob - 7/5 4 Cash Customer - 4/1 6 Krusin Rocket - 5/1

Mountaineer Park Race 6

Post Time 8:05 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
2 Thelastsay - 4/1 7 Wanda Susie Doozy - 8/1 5 Sessa Sisu - 8/5

Mountaineer Park Race 7

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
8 Kozem - 7/2 3 Mambo Kitten - 5/1 1 Polyester Bride - 6/1

Mountaineer Park Race 8

Post Time 8:55 PM CST
Analysis by Peter Galassi
9 Good Idea - 6/1 2 Red Maple - 5/1 1 Cape Lookout - 7/2
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun November 24th, 2024

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Jim's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 7:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
2 Illini Treacherous - 2-1 5 Shady Maple Bridgt - 7-1 3 Gershwin - 9-2

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 7:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
6 Thats Cache - 5-2 7 Jimmylai - 3-1 1 Triple Revenge - 5-1

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 7:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Thebeautifulthings - 1-1 6 Wildcat Abby - 8-5 3 Fox Valley Showgal - 5-1

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 8:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Fox Valley Tessa - 3-1 3 Chickabell - 7-2 1 No Words Needed - 9-2

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Mondaymorningmerle - 2-1 5 Captain Dee Tee - 5-1 1 Capt'n Caremal - 5-1

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 8:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
5 Fox Valley Groupie - 3-1 4 Fox Valley Starlet - 5-2 1 A Very Nice Dandy - 9-2

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 9:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Rock It Out - 6-1 7 Sleazy Mama - 7-2 4 Rollin Coal - 9-2

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 9:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Kays In Charge - 2-1 7 What A Legacy - 5-2 5 Lou's My Number - 3-1

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 9:50 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
7 Town Gossip - 5-2 3 Fox Valley Gemini - 2-1 5 Rockin Pulse - 7-2

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 10:10 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
4 Allineeizamiracle - 4-1 1 Genevieve's World - 9-2 8 Absolutely Real - 3-1

Hawthorne Race 11

Post Time 10:30 PM CST
Analysis by Jim Miller
1 Genie Ina Bottle - 7-1 9 She's Magical - 3-1 8 Give Me This Dance - 9-2
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sun November 24th, 2024

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Ron's Picks

Hawthorne Race 1

Post Time 7:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Illini Treacherous - 2-1 1 Gonna Be A Qt - 12-1 8 Wishuwergear - 15-1

2-ILLINI TREACHEROUS-Meets easiest in a long time

1-GONNA B A QT-Debut wasn’t bad; improves with experience

8-WISHYOUWERGEAR-Second Lasix; can surprise

Hawthorne Race 2

Post Time 7:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
7 Jimmylai - 3-1 6 Thats Cache - 5-2 5 Rocknroll Dakota - 9-2

7-JIMMY LAI-Looks faster than the rest

6-THAT’S CACHE-Meets a bit easier

5-ROCKNROLL DAKOTA-Won last off the layoff; can repeat

Hawthorne Race 3

Post Time 7:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Thebeautifulthings - 1-1 6 Wildcat Abby - 8-5 3 Fox Valley Showgal - 5-1

4-THEBEAUTIFULTHINGS-Won 8 of nine; dominant lately

6-WILDCAT ABBY-Been nearly as good as top choice but not quite

3-FOX VALLEY SHOWGIRL-looks like best of the rest

Hawthorne Race 4

Post Time 8:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Fox Valley Tessa - 3-1 7 First Of Her Name - 4-1 4 Dandy's Ms Swifty - 9-2

5-FOX VALLEY TESSA-Won “Peachy” finale off 5-week layoff

7-FIRST OF HER NAME-Might finish fastest of all

4-DANDY’S MS SWIFTY-in the hunt every time

Hawthorne Race 5

Post Time 8:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
3 Kurt Longjohn - 4-1 4 Mondaymorningmerle - 2-1 9 Rufus Dufus - 9-2

3-KURT LONGJOHN-Last gave positive clue

4-MONDAYMORNINMERLE-Been in good form for a couple months

9-RUFUS DUFUS-Has to overcome outside post but 2nd in last two

Hawthorne Race 6

Post Time 8:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 I Love My Captain - 7-2 4 Fox Valley Starlet - 5-2 6 Rk'smack - 6-1

2-I LOVE MY CAPTAIN-Won last from the outside; maybe better here

4-FOX VALLEY STARLET-Dominated in last; can do it again

6-RK’SMACK-Think she will finish fast

Hawthorne Race 7

Post Time 9:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
2 Deja Vu Babyboo - 6-1 6 Divine Art - 5-1 4 Rollin Coal - 9-2

2-DEJA VU BABYBOO-Might be able to lead throughout

6-DIVINE ART-Just beat most here including top choice

4-ROLLIN COAL-Might finish fastest of all

Hawthorne Race 8

Post Time 9:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
5 Lou's My Number - 3-1 1 Kays In Charge - 2-1 2 Dandy's Princess - 10-1

5-LOU’S MY NUMBER-Won Fox Valley Flan finale in last

1-KAYS IN CHARGE-Won 8 of 13; 2nd four times

2-DANDY’S PRINCESS-Gets the trip if top pair duel early

Hawthorne Race 9

Post Time 9:50 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
1 Tookadiveoffdipper - 8-1 3 Fox Valley Gemini - 2-1 5 Rockin Pulse - 7-2

1-TOOKADIVEOFFDIPPER-Worked too hard to get lead from outside in last

3-FOX VALLEY GEMINI-Class can outfinish the field

5-ROCKIN PULSE-Has a win and a second at this level

Hawthorne Race 10

Post Time 10:10 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
4 Allineeizamiracle - 4-1 7 Seaside Streaker - 9-2 8 Absolutely Real - 3-1

4-ALLINEEIZAMIRACLE-Gets leading driver for this trip

7-SEASIDE STREAKER-A threat to lead throughout

8-ABSOLUTELY REAL-Just game in defeat

Hawthorne Race 11

Post Time 10:30 PM CST
Analysis by Ron Uchman
9 She's Magical - 3-1 2 Graceful Gala - 9-2 8 Give Me This Dance - 9-2

9-SHE’S MAGICAL-Was fully in control in her local debut

2-GRACEFUL GALA-Meets a bit easier in her local debut

8-GIVE ME THIS DANCE-Raced well in her 2 local starts at this level