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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat November 23rd, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:28 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 ADDED MISCHIEF projected to move up on the DROP and going back to the debut last October at KEE and presents upside in this second start back off the layoff with the change in class here. The quick turnaround could be a positive sign as well as remaining in for $50k rather than take a more significant drop. In each start since the debut last year, the numbers have improved and the gate efficiency as well with local experience back in two weeks from a C+/TRAFFIC trip. 

Woodbine Race 1

Post Time 12:10 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 NAPA SPIRIT holds consistent figures that fit on par and returning from a BTL effort under similar conditions three weeks ago provides a slight value alternative as the projected third choice. 

Woodbine Race 2

Post Time 12:45 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 JAMIESTA also projects to hold some required value as a deeper closer (Q4 Square) in this race. The early pace (Fire) should assist their runstyle and finds some class relief wheeling right back in just over a week perhaps intent finding a better level for their abilities. Trip and form for #2 READY FOR A FIGHT is similar to #1 EXHANGE DAY and based on the ML presents clear value comparing the two. 

Woodbine Race 3

Post Time 1:19 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Tough to knock a potential pace advantage #7 SAUCY NAME or the class drop for #3 PRETTY GOOD JOKE in this event as logical type. #4 LILLZ STAR projected to IMPROVE after the 10/12 effort and did just that at this level exiting the 11/2 common race and should be competitive right back under similar conditions. 

Woodbine Race 6

Post Time 2:49 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 GOLDEN TEST has a very live look in this race and appears well-intended on the drop and quick turnaround. They followed a similar form cycle pattern leading into the dominant B+ maiden win back on 9/8 when in for the $25k tag and returns to those conditions here.