Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 PARCHMENT PARTY showed a ton of class winning both juvenile starts with strong figures and B+ OptixGRADES. While he has yet to return to that outcome this season he has held his own coming back against older rivals and finds a subtle change to straight sophomore here. Each race has been more competitive than it may appear on paper and than the results gives credit. They recorded a B- OptixGRADE off the layoff at KEE with a strong GALLOP+ and given a massive upgrade from the 11/9 start making a MOVE in TRAFFIC X_FLOW playing a major role in the outcome they can IMPROVE on here. 

Perhaps not only this horseplayer expected a little more from #5 COME AS YOU ARE as the connections wheel right back in just over a week (11/13) for this spot. The quick turnaround is not new for them and could be a hidden positive keying off the B-/BTL effort with a similar move and conditions on 9/15. 

This race should present value should #2 COPPOLA hold the role of the favorite on race day. It is not that they are not capable, but the intent could be a "prep" returning from a 50-day freshening with the GP meet not far off in the horizon and a stakes win is probably on the radar rather than an allowance win here. #3 RUN CARSON also is capable though has been able to pick up wins with favorable trips under a lower race par than today and does not present the value required with those factors in play. From a pace standpoint they must also deal with #6 JOE SHIESTY another that could get public attention here as the more "obvious" alternative - those three all Q1 Circles. 

Longshot #7 LET MY PEOPLE GO ideally might prefer more ground though on their best day fits at this level and with form this season and in line to compete. Looking at the Plot they can work an off the pace trip with a strong closing kick a Large Square in line with #1 DHABAB and #9 DOUBLE CLUTCH and sure to be overlooked of that set. 

#13 SIENNOIS comes into this race with buried form in the second start off the layoff. They will also avoid some stablemates including King of Gosford, the winner of the Let It Ride Stakes - their most recent start. Form has been consistent including the pair of BTL effort prior to the MSw win in June and finished as part of the BLANKET finish on 7/21 with a less than ideal TACTIC- on the day. 

#7 NASHOBA'S JOY also brings in overall form keying off a BTL effort back on 8/10 as well as in the 11/4 event three weeks ago. Those two efforts were split by an EX - EXCUSE on 9/8 and despite the 8th place outcome recorded B- with the TACTIC- trip at SA under similar conditions to today's race in October. 

#1 JULIE'S MIST had a look at this level just over a week ago with buried form and placed at the level where she can compete. While the outcome left something to be desired, they return here with some upside back under similar conditions and with the stretch out in distance. 

#1 SPEEDEEMAN follows a favorable form cycle pattern to suggest they can return to a top effort here. The connections also looking to make the task easier dropping down from the recent higher OC $40k events to run here for the $25k tag. The race shape and the rail could prove a further positive tracking inside behind the projected pacesetters with first run on the closers.

#8 RAT PORTAGE should hold value with the two recent finishing positions and speed figures impacted by trip, timing and class level. They find a change in this third start of the cycle back where they can and have been competitive in the past picking up checks as well as the win keying off the 6/30 race. 

While #3 FRENCH HORN is logical, the BTL debut from #2 AWESOME BEAT is tough to ignore and given a look here. Despite the place finish three weeks ago they recorded a B OptixGRADE making a MOVE through TRAFFIC with the win/show finishers runners that race forward throughout.