« 11/26/2024 11/28/2024 »
Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed November 27th, 2024

Download as PDF

Emily's Analysis

Churchill Downs Race 1

Post Time 12:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 UNCORK IT comes into this race as one of the more experienced though a return to the KY circuit with sneaky form and races around two turns. Their debut back at ELP showed run following a SLOG with most on the GALLOP+ and perhaps overcompensated as part of the Fast early (and late) pace in the second start on the IND turf. Their figure improved back on the dirt in October and upgraded given the TACTIC- trip impacted with TROUBLE and all around start-to-finish adversity racing in the rain (WEATHER) on 11/4. 

Churchill Downs Race 2

Post Time 12:29 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Two of the big class class droppers return off "trips" and taking the drop at the last week of the CD meet look to have intent. The recency sides with #5 UNSTABLE PRINCE back in two weeks after acting fractious in the GATE and TROUBLE_S with a TRAFFIC SHUFFLE in the early stages before making a WIDE CLOSE too late to have an impact in the outcome. #6 TAPSASIONAL returns from a two month break following a TROUBLE+ trip back on 9/27 and could be some intent with the drop for a horse that has going back to the Oaklawn meet exposed racing at a higher level. 

Churchill Downs Race 3

Post Time 12:58 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 BEBEDOURO is the on upswing racing himself back to a top effort after the big figure (REGRESS) maiden win in August. He faced this level in the first start against winner not fully recovered in September and given a freshening before returning against a higher, tougher group 20-days ago to give fitness now placed at the right level. 

Churchill Downs Race 4

Post Time 1:27 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The Fire Contention and higher 67 SpeedRate should allow some pace for #6 CHIQUITA MOSCA to CLOSE (Q4 Square) into. Their form is also a positive, coming back off the TACTIC- trip last out and looking to make impact first off the claim. In addition to pace, they find subtle, sneaky class relief at this restricted claiming level, a drop from the open claiming races and starter allowance events in this current cycle finding a lower par here. 

Churchill Downs Race 5

Post Time 1:57 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 SEQUIN LADY had a big look on 11/18 and ran a "winning" B OptixGRADE effort taking a tough beat at the wire. While she might not be the same number today with the recent effort and place finish sitting on top off the pps it can be taken as an encouraging sign the connection come right back in 18-days and return protected. 

#2 MIRTH 'N MERRIMENT has some buried form that makes them a fit at this level keying off the 2023 races. While a little more could have been shown three weeks ago, that was a first start back off a long 416-day layoff and could follow the intention pattern with the three week turnaround and remaining protected. 

Churchill Downs Race 6

Post Time 2:26 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 EXPRESS CRUISER presents upside in this second start of the cycle and off theclaim wheeling back from the 11/10 start. They were not only giving up recency but caught poor tracking conditions, a SLOG paired with the shorter distance WIDE MOVE still leaving them a lot of work to do. 

Churchill Downs Race 8

Post Time 3:25 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

This is a strong race for the level and a higher par to reflect the level of contention. In terms of early contention the Sun rating is paired with an honest 12 SpeedRate which should impact the dynamic/pace. there are a pair of runners that could surprise to keep on the radar:

#3 YO PUEDO has some versatility in terms of runstyle cutting back to one turn and based on the visuals should appreciate going SHORTER. they would also appreciate the start last month at KEE giving up recency on the day and for a COLD barn keeping that in mind with the result as well as a subtle WIDE SHUFFLE trip as well. 

#2 EASY RED comes into this race as the "least likely" given the speed figures recorded sit below par and in contrast to today's rivals. While they must step up and run "faster" this could be the time for that improved race and showing up with a new top as the numbers to date primarily recorded as a juvenile to project some grow up forward movement with maturity. 

Churchill Downs Race 9

Post Time 3:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 NAY V BELLE showed class to break their maiden on debut though might not have been quite ready for the graded stakes and route test wheeling back in 20-days for their second start. Freshened in April they rebounded with a B place finish at SA and dominant B+ securing the win in May over the CD course and distance of today's race and held their own stepping up in N2 company in June. that race was followed up with a subtle trip over a tricky bullring course for the CT Oaks (G2) and compromised with the rail RUSH in October at KEE. While the number was not as strong two week ago some of that could have been due to the off track and shorter distance no worse for the wear as the connections come right back in 13-days for this spot.