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Thu November 28th, 2024 |
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Emily's Analysis
Woodbine Race 1
#2 BAYTOWN CLEOPATRA makes the circuit switch returning from the 145-day layoff and Lasix could be the reason for that location change. While lacking recency on others, they can be given a flow upgrade from the 7/6 start as part of the Very Fast early pace forced from the outside draw.
#5 GOLDEN SUNSET has the consistent higher figures at this level making their third career start though pairing B- OptixGRADES must show a little more today for that "winning" effort.
#4 SHE'S SO CROATIAN was given an EX - EXCUSE on debut (common 11/2 race with GOLDEN SUNSET) in part to her longer bodied physicality paired with the rail draw. While ideally they could benefit from added/STRETCH ground, the move off the inside is to their benefit and has more to show than the first start.
Woodbine Race 2
Some of the more competitive races for #4 CADFAEL recorded with L. Contreras aboard and over this course at the 6f distance. Both of those changes are subtle as they return quickly from a SLOG TROUBLE_S just over a week ago.
Some subtle changes also follow #7 TOWN'S WARRIOR to suggest intent second off the re-claim for the connections. They prefer to race outside horses, a post position change after setting the pace last out to gain fitness at the longer sprint distance. A rider change is also in play to L. Salles, a rider that has had some success in limited starts for the barn and also could look for a front wraps removal here as well.
#5 ENCHANT ME fits as an individual in this spot as a contender though will have pace/trip as their prime hurdle with the cutback in distance as a closing sprinter. The similar off the pace factors for #8 ORPHAN HALLIE also in play here and one that has sprint a long time going back to late 2022 at this N3 level sill looking to clear and yet to post a B at the level.
Woodbine Race 3
The early pace projects to be honest and while the shorter 5.5f distance does require some tactical speed #5 WET AND WILD could fall right into that trip. They will find some class relief from the recent races and the change less concerning given their recent form (C+) and racing for this $25k tag back in July - the race they were claimed out of and has been racing at the higher OC $40k level since.
Woodbine Race 4
#3 HERETHEREEVERYWHERE is on the upswing of an "every other" pattern and while they have the race FLOW back on 10/19 still recorded a B OptixGRADE and a higher figures as BOS back on 9/7. The rider change is also noted pairing up five times this month with all (unofficially) finishing in the money a positive $1.36 ROI that would be a touch higher noting the win DQ of Whiskey Ice as the favorite back on 11/22.
#10 REALLOVEISLUCKY is sneaky in here wheeling right back for a second start on the two week turnaround. They debuted at a higher MCL par and race and also race as the only filly in the field that day and could suggest "giving" them that start and intent for this spot against straight sophomore fillies. #1 MARYLAND SPIRIT brings in a subtle class edge with the drop though has shown SLOG in both starts this year and noted back with the rail draw today.
Woodbine Race 5
#8 PEAK EARNINGS could be sneaky live in here making their local debut and second start since the barn change. Fitness should hold coming off a WIDE trip last month at PID in a similar type event that has held form. Further intent with A. Adams aboard a rider that has had success in limited starts together this season.
#6 MAGIC TOKEN ran a big BTL effort at this level on 11/3, a less than ideal TACTIC- forced to MOVE through inside/SAVED TRAFFIC and CLOSE into a Slow early (very slow late) pace - noted also for #1 JIMMY'S AFFAIR the place finisher from that common race.
Woodbine Race 6
#3 GO GIFFEN reset their form cycle on 11/16 off a 43-day break and in higher allowance company back around two turns. They will cutback off that race and based on prior form cycle patterns improved with racing to suggest a move forward here.
The live jockey trainer combination noted earlier on the card return here with #9 CYMBAL COURT. They bring in some upside on a forward speed figures pattern off the races this season and finds a new distance change with this longer sprint, most of their career going shorter.
#4 MRS. C makes since as they picked up a win, a FLOW aided win, at this level back on 10/12. Prior to that, they were a long time career maiden type catching the right field and trip with the maiden win in September.
Woodbine Race 7
#3 VERY GIZMO will require a return to a top effort (and some value to play) in this competitive group where a case can be made for the majority of the field. VERY GIZMO has held their form this year though exposed on class DROP at the stakes level and since returning this year in protected allowance company. The class DROP could suggest intent placed where they can pick up a win late in the season keying off the dominant B+ $25k MCL maiden win last summer.
#7 HAY HAY PAULA another to keep on the radar and could sneak away on the board following the recent running line and finishing position. Looking past that race just 12-days ago given the trip and route distance they return to a familiar 6.5f sprint and the $25k claiming level where they have recorded competitive B- efforts this season with figures on par.
#1 WICKED MEMORY also fits off their form this season and looked spotted properly for this level on 10/24 coming off a BTL 5th place run in N1X allowance company back in September. They have a pattern of SLOG which can be overall problematic and translate to trip and required value something that may or may not be there given the connections.
Woodbine Race 8
#1 FORESTER HUMOR returns to restricted claiming company and keying off a competitive B- effort with TRAFFIC TROUBLE along with the far outside post back on 10/18 to compete here. They are part of the eligible group with at least three career wins which includes #4 SOUPER RIVER sharing in a similar runstyle (Q2 Square) with buried and current form to compete today.
#7 GRAND ALLIANCE will make a restricted claiming debut and on their best day fits as a contender here. Trip will be key as well as readiness given the 167-day return in this spot, the lone layoff returnee in this field.
#10 EXECUTIVE SEARCH finds the change in class and consistent form though closer to a lateral move off the recent races and likely to get public attention for the connections and the "safer" option feel.