Handicapper Tips & Picks

Based on the ML and connections there could be some live, capable FTS in this field looking to get a race on the grass before the break and return to SA. Looking at the group with experience: A case can be made for #1 TWIRLING LIGHT off their races to date that they have yet to be in the right spot to show their best. They showed run in the August debut at the shorter 5f distance following the SLOG chased WIDE X_FLOW. The placement was ambitious in the Juvenile Fillies Turf just 16-days later though with TROUBLE and showing run in spots projected to IMPROVE at the right level (DROP) and the 78 figures fits with today's par. 

Longshot #9 ISNTSHELOVERLY had a look on 10/4 projected to STRETCH out after their sprint (PREP) debut. They required some time though did show improvement with the change in distance last month showing interest making a WIDE MOVE after a TROUBLE_S and stepped up in the speed figure department.

#7 OSCAR JOY will be tested for distance however in a race that could see a "new face" jump up they could check that box. their speed figures have remained consistent and class for this level turning in a B- back on 9/8 with a TROUBLE trip and solid GALLOP+ and pairing that Grade last month in a BTL show outcome.

One of the older horses #2 LOTTERY PICK paired up B- OptixGRADE efforts at this level course and distance over the summer to upgrade here though still requires some price compensation, something to monitor given the connections and presents of F. Prat. 

#3 SIENNOIS returns with I. Ortiz for the second time these two together and perhaps the key for this horse one that runs their race, though to win requires the right timing. #10 SINE QUA NON could be a bit light for this group of established runners, though remains on the radar and a horse to follow. They showed upside on debut a BTL in their second start coming off the long layoff to break their maiden in August and turned in a sneaky good effort making a CLOSE X_FLOW in the Let It Ride stakes last month.

#6 A VOTRE SANTE has shown progression race-to-race and presents upside in this second start off the layoff, a similar pattern to the 7/25 maiden win. 

#3 WINDS OF FREEDOM was vulnerable coming off a PERFECT trip to break their maiden at a short price in the 10/18 allowance though unexpected EX - EXCUSE given a legit stumble and RUSH WIDE impacting their outcome in addition to a negative form cycle on the day though no excuses not to bounce make here. A compromised WINDS OF FREEDOWN likely assisted the winner #5 FAR WESTERN one that recorded a new top and finds a change in draw and race shape to overcome. 

#8 SUPA SPEED looks live wheeling back from a TRAFFIC TROUBLE EX - EXCUSE in the stakes earlier this month, and with the rider change noting F. Prat in town picking up the call. 

A strange race shape for this compact field with the Snowflake Contention paired with the high 84 SpeedRate. That scenario could see #5 SIDE BY SIDE land in the right time, place, post and trip and the main key; price compensation. 

#4 CARSON'S RUN holds a class edge to validate the role as the favorite. That said they will dins a distance change out of the longer distance events something that can find specialists (i.e. Next) and should be at least factored at a shorter number while still "horse to beat" logical. 

The two outside runners have their work cut out for them on trip though appears price compensation: #12 TWIRLING POINT has yet to run that "fast" race and must step up on that front though to their credit has shown progression, versatility and class in their races to date and upside in this second start off the layoff while reuniting with F. Dettori; #13 CATHAL made their local debut a BTL one coming back to break their maiden at SA in June. They have show progression and upside in the second start of the cycle, the pattern in play here.