Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 STRUMMIN MARY is the lone 4yo in the field and the lone runner in this field with FG experience. Going back to those races last season, they were competitive with subtle trips (no red) worthy of a value look back in this spot. 

#4 GRETNA GREEN is the most interesting in this race with the subtle change in class and slight edge on recency over some of the other second time starters. Going back to the 11/2 debut they stayed on as the BOS X_FLOW with the Very Fast early pace forced from the outside post and upgraded despite the NO_FINISH. The form of the race has held up for those returning including one next out winner. 

#1 BACHELOR PAD makes a lot of sense in this spot, a logical type returning to their preferred sprint distance, Hernandez and a different race dynamic (Snowflake) all assisting in the past and a slight edge on those fronts to the in form #6 LONG POND.

#3 TRUEBELIEVE should be flying under the radar despite the recent show finish on 11/16. On the day they were RUSH to contest the pace taken out of their runstyle slightly, though have used a similar form cycle pattern coming back with the fitness to compete with a top keying off the 6/20 result. Their current form also is progressive and competitive at this level recording a B- OptixGRADE on 11/1. 

Exiting the Mazarine (G3) both #2 SALT (DROP) and #6 AS CATCH CAN move up with a class edge in this race though nothing too clever. Perhaps #4 NEENAH can spice things up and return to a top freshening after running back to back races in the first two starts and has some ability. 

Most of the field returns from the 11/14 common race and making things more interesting with the BLANKET finish at the wire as the race slowing late and many returning from that outcome. That includes #6 ZONING ORDER (no value) listed as the ML and taking nothing away from their competitive effort this is a different dynamic and timing as well as a projected massive odds shift from three weeks ago. The dynamic plays to #1 CINNAMON BITS (prime contender) - a Large Square upgraded in the race has as well as the ABOVE on Speed, Plot and ABOVE+ on Class presenting a edge in this field.

Tough race to have a lot of confidence and overall not much separation top to bottom in this field. #5 PORT RENFREW has the class edge though other concerns with the pattern of excessive layoff lines; #4 OLIVIA'S MELODY has come up short on the win end pairing B- OptixGRADE at the level and could come down from the ML and perhaps that allows drift on #1 HOULIHAN - if ever to clear has the benefit today of second off timing and race at the lower MCL level with some competitive races and a change in post position moving inside from the event three weeks ago. 

#1 HELL BENT finds a positive rider change for the barn in this second start off the claim and competitive races under similar conditions/par from the events this season. The TROUBLE on 11/17 presents further upside along with the return to the route/two-turn distance.