Handicapper Tips & Picks

#6 FLIGHT ON RACE DAY was exposed on class in their first two MSW starts and even when finding the change to MCL company in September caught a higher race par and required the DROP they find here. Overall upside is present off that TRAFFIC TROUBLE trip last out at CD and given the freshening here in the right spot to compete. 

#3 MCGREGOR LAKE turned in a BTL effort first off the claim just over a week ago at DMR. The connections picked them up for $25k at this level on 11/3 and the return is logical on that front. As far as the surface switch they are deserving of another try back on the dirt with the long main track race an EX - EXCUSE in July with legit TROUBLE and IMPROVE visuals. 

The SHORTER distance could be the key for #4 SIR MAXIMUS exiting the longer distance races with fitness all at a higher class, purse and par as further advantages here. #1 BATTLE CRUISER makes a belated return to the races as well as LRC where they made their debut almost one year ago, a race won by their stablemate, Scatify. 

#5 FIFTH STREET ran their career best figure over this LRC course breaking their maiden and perhaps intent with the claim just under one week ago and placement here. Similar figure and effort recorded from #2 JERRY'S SPIRIT with their maiden win off the bench in September and has been freshened with a reset for this spot and projected return to a top effort here. 

The race dynamic is key for #4 ZIMBA WARRIOR in this spot a strong fit as a Large Square on the Plot with form at this level and course to support. Those are the prime concerns for #5 BEE CATCHER returning to the dirt and one that presented as TURF in the select main track starters though positive with the STRETCH PREP from the race just 13-days ago. 

An upset look to #6 TIZ LISSETT one that should be under the radar off the recent finishing positions and for the connections. Overall there is hidden form in each race to date with competitive figures in their first two starts back in August and showing run (WIDE MOVE) in the turf route despite the less than ideal trip (TACTIC-) and placement in MSW company. They returned to MCL company on 10/13 though again compromised TACTIC- WIDE MOVE impacting the 4th place outcome behind even money open length lone winner Wishes to Riches and cam move up from the WIDE trip with the STRETCH out in distance wheeling right back from the 11/23 race in this portion of their form cycle. 

While #4 ULTIMATE HY is preferred on the TURF their race over this course back in 2023 stacks up on par and current form fits today's race and race shape. They return to the main track to run in statebred company. A change from the recent starts this season since returning from the layoff and placement looking to find where they can pick up a win before the end of the year. 

Trainer L. Schultz has a small sample of long layoff runners at OP with a decent record with those starters to favor the returning #10 QUEEN WILHELMINA here. She debuted in MSW company last year and a quick return for a second start and better placement in MCL company though late in the meet made that 5/3 start the last of the season. She returns here with steady works, a live rider that could get more early speed from them here and the outside draw is nothing new.

#11 PRINCIPAL ANITA turned in a BTL effort under similar condition and has buried form to compete in this spot. The pattern of gate issues is the biggest hurdle especially on the win end of things.

#7 KOKOMO STARLET has the edge in recency as well as early speed something that should gather a lot of public attention here. While catching the right field, time and place could happen they have come up short without excuse and must deal with #12 MO HOPEFUL one that coming out of F/VF early paced races has enough legit early speed to keep things honest up front. #4 PALMILLA’S BET also brings in recency in this second start of the cycle and upside off the trip last month at MNR, though still must step up off their races here last season. 

#2 GOT THUNDER has been protected since entering the D. Jacobsen barn and drops in for the claiming tag today though not a concerning type of drop still running for the $30k tag paired with a higher than average $62k purse – similar to many of the races this season to suggest intent. The move off the rail along with buried form since resetting the cycle following the MTH win gives them a look and fair projected odds (drift from the ML) given the recent finishing positions.

#1 DAZZLEMESILVER finds a DROP in this second start off the claim and could see the connections look to send out live runners in their first stand on this circuit. #5 LATE NIGHT RADIO brings in OP experience at the same time has other question marks with the class drop off the long layoff as well trip from off the pace, a trip that could suit #7 I GOT NO MUNNY just as well and on a positive every other pattern has held their own this year since returning from the layoff and finds all around a lateral change here. 

#9 TORNADO ROAD has visually always presented on the weaker/DROP side and that change might have come too late over the summer with the layoff that followed the August start when in for the tag on the main at ELP. Similar intent and change in class should benefit #4 AWOL one that caught some tougher company in the first two KY starts and a WIDE trip off the bench and against the course profile last month at CD. Tough to argue with #7 TIS CHARMING here for a barn that can point and send out live at Oaklawn. This will be their second start off the claim and placed according to their ability to their MCL needs.

#2 GO CATS has form at Oaklawn at the route distance and some sneaky form in those starts. That goes back to the show finish on debut as well as leaving the result up to the judges back in March DQd from the unofficial win. Some intent could be in play with the timing and this meet around the corner given some excuse with the X_WIDE and NO_PUSH last out at DED.

Looking at race par, #8 NEPAL UP finds considerable class relief from the return races this season. They were competitive though overmatched last Oaklawn meet in starter company and held their own last month gaining fitness (again that higher race par/purse) at CD that should translate naturally here.

Last year was a great year for AE runners drawing in and performing at longer odds, that said #13 AMERICAN HERO will require a scratch to run though has back numbers that fit strongly with this group and race par. In terms of current form, the recent figures in their form cycle are not good enough to get it done though to their credit has shown progress and perhaps a timing conditioning factor. 

As far as speed figures #6 PHAROAH’S HEART has recorded some of the higher numbers in this field and a contender on that front, though there are other handicapping factors to consider as the numbers, the pair of local place finishes (along with the connections are likely to impact the post time odds) Since joining the D. Jacobson barn following the Jan. claim she was entered and scratched 3x in the spring and part of the 327 day layoff they returning from here.

#8 BACKYARD MONEY had a strong last season at Oaklawn Park and perhaps that put her “over the top and lacked the necessary recovery while in contentious races in the KY and NYRA circuit. The slight break, return to Oaklawn and N. Juarez could be the key to turn things back around. #5 STORY HOUR has been able to fire off the long layoff in the past and while showing catchall speed sprinting. She win the route N1 back in February with Torress aboard and could be a positive sign with their presence in this race. Value also noted as she was knocking heads with rival #7 ALWAYS ANGELS and should be higher of the two today.

#1 DEALING JUSTICE would not be included if not for price compensation. She holds some competitive efforts over this course under similar conditions. While recent pattern of long layoff lines are noted though this placement is not as concerning with the higher $50k tag, no give away though could open up other conditions this season. 

#4 ONE WAY OR ANOTHER is the sprint speed of the speed and in this race and could prove tough to catch once again. That was the case closing out the meet in April with the class drop and assertive ride under C. Torres the returning rider here. Others could try and contest the pace the type of dynamic to assist #7 KITIARA with a starting trip. They have been able to win on or near the lead this year, however those were different race shapes and class than whey they find here as well as the prior Oaklawn form and runstyle.

#9 SHE’S STORMING has recorded numbers right there with ONE WAY OR ANOTHER going back to the 2023 season. 2024 was rough though to be fair raced into shape in tougher spots starting out the year in the Poinsettia stakes then placed at the right level in February responded with a competitive WIDE trip and less than ideal handling in the April and May starts closing out the year. She can present gate issues though the price compensation should be in play the prime knock on #12 SUMMORYA with her pattern of gate issues, the outside draw and likely shorter odds of the pair. 

#5 GUNOE is a logical type in this field. They showed ability on debut and as projected with the STRETCH in distance stepped forward this season as a 4yo. This marks the third start back from the layoff in this cycle making a WIDE MOVE on 9/19 and given some and a slight excuse fractious in the GATE on 10/20.

#13 KING RUSSELL really has not run a “bad” race at Oaklawn and while the results were not up to the expectations of the connections and the public that creates further motivation this year. Some upside should be present in the second start if this current cycle and noted the front wraps were added for the first time on 11/10, a change to look for in the paddock today.

Looking at the group of sophomores both #1 SIR GREYLIND and #11 GET A JOB present upside as lightly raced types competitive in their select starts, though #7 DAILY GRIND a more seasoned type had the foundation and improvement with the route distances with current form into this race. His two most recent CD starts had some excuses stumbling at the start with the extreme race dynamic in September and a WIDE trip during the barn’s COLD streak last month at CD to step forward from. 

Brad Cox wins a lot of races with first time starters though this is a different category here at Oaklawn Park to consider with #7 ZAGHRUTA assigned the ML favorite role. Since December 2020 the barn has debuted a five 2yo fillies the lone winner sprinting in 2021 in for the $50k tag. As far as debuting on this circuit at the route distance, there are only two juveniles in that sample both geldings that finished off the board. The barn also has #13 TAKE A LOOK on the AE one with debut route experience from HS Indy.

#9 NANA GRACE turned in a winning type effort for her debut back in August. There was intent for the 8.5f distance at Keeneland in October though unable to make that race has rerouted here. #1 ENSORCELL looked the part of a PREP in their September debut and moved up last month with the slight addition of ground and WIDE trip to take another step forward here.

#8 SOMERVILLE is one of two for McPeek and has the route debut experience edge over #3 ENTICING BEAUTY one that to her credit recorded a solid figure from the 11/17 debut, though might have landed in a softer situation. #10 VINO TIEMPO moves off the rail from the debut and showed run in spots especially after the wire with a strong GALLOP+. 

#5 INNOVATOR has consistently recorded some of the higher figures in this field despite maiden status. That is worth noting as they wheel right back, nothing too out of character for DW Lukas in just over a week from the 11/27 maiden race finishing in a photo and as solid effort as much as the win.

S. Asmussen brings in a pair both must prove themselves in this spot. #2 THREE ECHOES has the stakes experience and placing over the summer though has shown a recent pattern of gate issues and flattened out in the number department and if that is the case the others have been able to catch up. That could include #4 PERFECT MAGIC one that started off on the turf before the front running maiden score and improved number on 9/26 over the CD dirt

First time dirt will be in play for #6 KALE’S ANGEL coming in from California and out of a productive stakes event back on BC weekend. The route distance does not appear their ideal and upgraded as they go SHORTER for this event and the outside draw in a compact field with other speed to their inside could assist on a tracking trip. 

Going back to last season in similar starter allowance company the lone start in for the $10k tag upgraded #1 BIG PAPER and ran accordingly first to the wire on March 8^th. The longer distance in the Trail’s End finale in May was a decent CLOSE for 5^th behind their stablemate winner #5 INDIAN GULCH and common rival #8 TRUCULENT – two runners that can easily impact the outcome today as well. Will note the rider swap as De La Cruz lands aboard BIG PAPER and Bejarano switching to INDIAN GULCH.

#2 RIGHT TONE is a longshot to mess around and get creative with. They are another that throughout most of their career have run protected or at a higher level including some sneaky good Oaklawn starts. Holding just the lone start in June at Lone Star creating eligibility for this starter condition. That also allowed the prior connections to come back protected in the 9/22 starter allowance given a complete EX – EXCUSE on the day and rebounded from that race on 10/13 at KEE in a race that has turned out to be productive and carries that torch into this spot for their new connections.

#4 GREATHEART also with Oaklawn form that is less “buried” along with current form into this race and second start of the cycle. They raced competitive in the claiming events last season the connections losing them for $30k at the start of the meet and picked back up over the summer at DMR. Will also give a mention to stablemate #7 CANADIAN PHAROAH another reclaim for the connections and appears some intent freshened for this meet even if they are a race out, the longer odds can be included somewhere in the mix.  

#1 JIM'S HOPE finds class relief and should move up naturally on their current form. The 11th place result 19-days ago was impacted on outcome from TROUBLE getting SHUFFLE in TRAFFIC making a MOVE behind the open length pacesetting winner. The race shape with the Fire Contention and higher 56 SpeedRate plays to their off the pace (Q4 Square) runstyle.