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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed December 18th, 2024

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Emily's Analysis

Turfway Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#4 NILE CANDY makes a belated second start from a productive debut race back in August at IND. They earned a follow off the effort and subtle trip showing run (MOVE) after the SLOG and slight SHUFFLE finishing with interest and GALLOP+ past the wire. The change in class and distance should work in their favor from a physical standpoint as well as intent as they have been entered 3x since the debut all out the route distance 2x with races moved to the main track and with an outside draw in a MSW turf mile event at IND in October. 

Turfway Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson
#1 MAJOR SPARKS wheels back from an EX - EXCUSE two weeks ago under similar conditions looking to IMPROVE all around. Price is key as is trip and should have pace to target given the complexion of the field with#4 KENTUCKY GHOST, #5 ALL WEST and #6 CANDY TYCOON class droppers showing up with a preferred E/EP (Q1) runstyle. At the longer odds #11 PERFECT PAIRING could find the right scenario as well exiting the 12/4 common race in their second start back off the layoff. 

Turfway Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#12 KATIE'S CHECKRIDE should move in this second start back off the layoff in what appeared a PREP off the visuals and placement at the higher allowance conditions off the layoff last month at CD

Turfway Race 7

Post Time 7:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

The early pace should be honest and contention for both #3 FLOODLIGHTS and #4 THUNDERHAWK to put pressure on each other and project to find company with others in this field.  A contentious scenario can assist #2 AMY'S MUSIC one that was entered under similar conditons earlier this month with F. De La Cruz aboard to further intent. 

Turfway Race 8

Post Time 8:25 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 PENNY'S SMILE has shown surface versatility, class and a progressive series of numbers since the debut back in April. That is looking past the compromised TROUBLE trip last month at CD playing a role in the outcome and still ran on GALLOP+ after the wire. 

#4 UNO LE is a longshot that needs a lot in their favor to win this race though should be overlooked and out running their odds is not out of the question. They recorded a strong figure on debut as well as the layoff return in September though worked HARD to do so and compromised when stepped up into graded stakes company soon after and caught poor track conditions in a strangely run November CD race with 38-days reset for this spot.