Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 ARTIE'S DEAL is upgrade from the 11/29 trip breaking SLOG making a MOVE X_FLOW and all around visuals to suggest they can IMPROVE back under the similar conditions they find here.

#1 EYE DEE KAY shares a similar runstyle to #5 WARRIOR RICHARD in today's race shape and should offer value of the two as a logical contenders. EYE DEE KAY brings in buried form keying off the BTL effort with Torres aboard back in September for this second start of the cycle. 

#4 MALIBU RAIN should be sitting on a peak and new top effort making their second start back off thelong layoff and key STRETCH out in distance off the sprint PREP just 13-days ago. 

#7 ALL GREEN LIGHTS has show early speed and sneaky good races going back to their debut just over a year ago. That carried into the second start earning and IMPROVE though unable to land in the right spot and timing and looking to fire fresh for the connections with rider change as C. Torres takes over.

Respect to #8 TIME ANDBEYOND returning back this circuit at the MCL level. They have turned in competitive races and figures that fit with each start to compete with today’s field and should translate once again. The prime knock being a short price is the pattern of gate issues, that tendency to SLOG. Arguably TIME ANDBEYOND should be the favorite and is given preference over #6 GREAT BARRIER listed as ML favorite one that can run for a share once again though look to others for the top spot. Would also include #1 PEARCY ROAD on value underneath as well a runner with numbers, class and similar runstyle to GREAT BARRIER at projected higher odds. 

In terms of experience, #7 CAVANAL has shown progression race to race though often their own biggest hurdle. They missed the break on debut, caught a tougher group at KEE then in November was very fractious in the GATE acting up significantly and was not checked out prior to the start. They also find the change back to a sprint and perhaps the front wraps off here as they were added last month with the off track and something to monitor in the paddock. The barn will also sent out first time starter #12 TO TOO TWENTYTWO the barn does not have the strongest win numbers in this category with two runners in a 17 horse sample putting forward winning races 35% itm so not out of it and would look for board visuals clues.

Trainer Tim Dixon has a pair of runners, and both debuted in a common race on 11/14. #4 PEA EYE went off shorter odds than #3 LITTLE RANDY on the day and PEA EYE presents some upside of the two with LITTLE RANDY running the same race in their second start. KICKBACK was a major factor for PEA EYE on debut and showed run late moving outside horses with interest in a race shape with minimal change in running order. Trip could look for a change here working from the gate right after the first start perhaps to show more early speed and rider change to R. Eramia.

#10 MORE POWER could be live here on debut for the connections and off a steady series of longer works should hold plenty of fitness.  The barn has a small sample of runners to look at though a deeper analysis for this category shows the debut runners consistently posting speed figures that fit on par and consistently if not faster than the posted figures from ML favorite, #9 PERFECT DIAL. #2 RUN DEANO RUN also fits based on potential for a barn that has not had a lot of luck on the win end on this circuit though with a smaller sample for this category to take with a grain of salt and has sent out some live runners this meet. 

The #1/#1A entry of PERMAFROST and LEMON DROP SHOT make sense in this race though lack value in that role and the primary knock. PERMAFROST might present the most upside while the did come up short with a PERFECT trip two weeks ago perhaps they were short on the day and have the fitness here; LEMON DROP SHOT took a tough photo beat though the time to have them at nearly 18-1 last time.

#4 STAND PROUD returns from the LEMON DROP SHOT common race and off a layoff on the day, much shorter odds of the two and with a WIDE trip the opposite of their place rival should be fit second off and perhaps even some intent first off the Hewitt claim and quick turnaround. Similar timing and barn change for #3 GUIDED ARROW exiting a different 12/7 claiming race under similar conditions. They showed early speed on the day though the complexion of this field along with the rider change (a live call for this barn) could see an effective tracking trip.

With the race staying intact, the early contention should assist #8 DUAL MONARCHY one that found the distance cut back effective in September with the prior races even those OP starts back in the spring at the route distance. 

Overall this is a competitive race and evenly matched group with the bulk of the field running similar figures and tough to take a shorter number. The relative even speed figures can shift the handicapping focus to pace, not often the prime factor in maiden events though there is enough established form in this case. The Fire contention is present as many in this field have shown early speed, and to be fair upgraded Fast early speed though paired with a lack of finish, something that could assist #6 MATT’S LUCK one that showed a late kick on debut and given time since the October DEL MSW event compromised with a stumble (TROUBLE_S) and WIDE trip.

#8 FIRST BID could also take advantage of trip and the key change in class. Going back to their races last year in the first part of the meet, they required a DROP from those MSW events and all around numbers on this main track stack up on par. Those numbers are similar to MATT’S LUCK as well as #7 MUSEUM QUALITY will be tested to run those races for their newer connections and first off the 180 day layoff and one that has some early speed in line with ML favorite #4 ZAPPING STRIKE, one that could find a significant odds shift from the MCL event last month at CD and in an outcome that saw the pacesetters running 1-2-3 around the track. 

#2 ZEN DREAMS is worth a look at double digit odds. They turned in a winning effort with the place finish their second start, a quick turnaround and with the two turn distance over the CBY turf. They remained around two turns though found a tougher MSW par in October at KEE, a race with form that has held up (including a common rival called Geez Eloise 11/13 CD) and lands in much lower race par today.

#1 ST. ALBANS RAID wheels back under similar conditions and could have required the start noting they made a RUSH into a DUEL from the outside, a race shape that assisted the stalking winner, Boutwell Time, their stablemate 7-2 winner.

McPeek has a pair in this race with a case to be made for both. #7 TAKE CHARGE MILADY returns for a belated second start some upside off the trip and group first out around two turns back in July at ELP over and off-track. #5 ANONIMA has the edge in recency, though the race strength is still questionable with #8 FEARLESS LADY from that 11/21 conditional MSW event as both require another move forward and on numbers in line with TAKE CHARGE MILADY’s effort recorded five months ago.

In terms of FTS #3 LONG TALL SALLY the barn has struggled in this category often at shorter odds extending back to 2020 at OP just a pair of winners both 3yo MSW types and based on that sample along with the ML shorter odds can be expected. 

#11 SCRUPULOUS has some positive factors coming into this race to fit as a value contender. They follow an every other pattern in their form cycle, a slightly softer race par from the recent KY events including the show finish back in October at KEE. They will shift to the outside here though with their runstyle should find a stalking trip off the projected pacesetters #8 SHE’S NOT A JOKE and #9 VALHALLA VIXEN two runners that could hold for minor shares (#5 FLY LIKE THE WIND AR bred has early speed); SCRUPULOUS drawn on their outside with tactical speed should be tracking and avoid significant ground loss.

#2 YES TO CHAMPAGNE is listed as the morning line favorite though unlikely to be a heavy favorite if that assigned role does hold. Their effort on 11/9 is the race to key off of under similar N2 conditions as today’s race and notable legitimate EX with the trip in the starter allowance on 11/27. #1 BELLE CHERIE could wind up favored for the connections and change in class. On her best day has recorded some of the higher figures in this field granted those numbers on the turf though her better dirt numbers also fit here on par.

#3 BELLA HAZE could be overlooked in this field with upside off her recent races and conditioning for this third start of the cycle with subtle trips and placed back in claiming company, the right level/par for her abilities and has often been overmatched at times including her local effort off the layoff in April at the higher allowance condition. 

#7 LEMON MUFFIN scratched out of a similar event last weekend where she made sense and similar in this spot. She has the benefit of local experience and fitness in this second start off the layoff returning from a competitive place finish (B) from the far outside post behind first run winner, Chilled last month at CD.

#1 STANDOUTSENSATION has recorded similar numbers and the barn showing confidence with the class drop following the place finish as the BOS last month at CD and should look for a similar trip from the rail though could find company in that role given the complexion of this field. #3 SENSIBLE CHOICE is lighter on class and speed figures though in terms of runstyle and consistency might be enough to pick up horses late for a minor share at longer odds. 

#8 OWN THE FIELD owns the ML favorite role and logical in that assignment. The connections make the change to run back in conditional claiming company with the return to Oaklawn, a course where they turned in competitive races last season in all three starts including the tough photo beat in the 4/21 claiming race.

#6 CAWKAB earned a follow and upgrade off the trip and ride on 10/30 with similar conditions on 11/20 however the front wraps reapplied on the day created some pause and perhaps a sign of things to come as they were not as effective and would look for that change here in the paddock.

Tom Amoss has the pair of runners in this field and with #4 SUTHERLAND stretching out in distance should be one of many to keep the early pace honest. Stablemate #2 MIGHTY MESSAGE has some early speed in their own right though prefers a target to stalk, the key in both of their career wins especially the PERFECT SETUP score at this course and distance back in April.

#9 HAPPY STRIKE might not be quite on the level of their older, and more established rivals though their runstyle fits today’s race shape and could be one to get creative with to keep in the mix at longer odds.

This is a competitive allowance with many quality, solid race horses that know how to win. #10 RUN CLASSIC picks this spot for the connections scratching from the Ring The Bell stakes opening weekend where they had a strong look and likely overlooked in that race off buried form that should still translate here. 

The race shape could impact the outcome and early honest pace that should assist proven deep closer, #7 TEJANO TWIST the assigned ML favorite. #6 BOURBON HEIST should be much longer odds of the two, holds a similar runstyle and closing kick, the two nearly identical on the Plot (and with #3 BANISHING) for today’s race creating a value opportunity. BOURBON HEIST also brings in upside with their races this season upgraded with the number and CLOSE X_FLOW back in October at KEE and what appeared to be a PREP just three weeks ago at the FG. The connections of both TEJANO TWIST and BOURBON HEIST enter pacesetters with #4 RYVIT and #9 EDGE TO EDGE early speed types keeping things honest should be part of that first flight.

**The scratches upgrades #4 RYVIT 

Garcia has sent out some live runners and #1 MORE THAN FIVE looks to have intent behind them in this second start off the layoff, subtle trip last month with the cutback in distance and slight change in class with form and a competitive race over this course and distance going back to March 10^th that effort at the higher $30k N2 condition.

Their runstyle could find the required tracking trip from the rail, a similar runstyle though will need a different type of trip for #9 INDEPENDENT PAUL in this second start off the layoff though should be fit with the recent series of published local works all days apart during December.

#8 DANCE MAN also follows the live connections pattern and races for a similar claiming tag from the event they were claimed out of at DMR in November though lands in a lower par here. The shorter odds being the main knock in race with others that also fit and should get attention from those noted connections and the November race with two next out winners showing on the standard past performances.  

#6 THANKS FRANK is upgraded in a second off pattern with local form and sneaky trips on this circuit from last season that fit competitively. Class wise they lack an edge though could make up for it with intent for live connections something that could follow #5 CORREDOR one that will step up to take on winners though off a GRIT effort breaking their maiden through adversity last month at RP.

#11 REWIRE brings in current form and hidden local form and figures to fit with today’s group. They must work a trip from the outside, something they were unable to do back on 11/1 at CD though finds a change in timing with added recovery and more time between starts. 

Garcia has sent out some live runners and #1 MORE THAN FIVE looks to have intent behind them in this second start off the layoff, subtle trip last month with the cutback in distance and slight change in class with form and a competitive race over this course and distance going back to March 10^th that effort at the higher $30k N2 condition.

Their runstyle could find the required tracking trip from the rail, a similar runstyle though will need a different type of trip for #9 INDEPENDENT PAUL in this second start off the layoff though should be fit with the recent series of published local works all days apart during December.

#8 DANCE MAN also follows the live connections pattern and races for a similar claiming tag from the event they were claimed out of at DMR in November though lands in a lower par here. The shorter odds being the main knock in race with others that also fit and should get attention from those noted connections and the November race with two next out winners showing on the standard past performances.  

#6 THANKS FRANK is upgraded in a second off pattern with local form and sneaky trips on this circuit from last season that fit competitively. Class wise they lack an edge though could make up for it with intent for live connections something that could follow #5 CORREDOR one that will step up to take on winners though off a GRIT effort breaking their maiden through adversity last month at RP.

#11 REWIRE brings in current form and hidden local form and figures to fit with today’s group. They must work a trip from the outside, something they were unable to do back on 11/1 at CD though finds a change in timing with added recovery and more time between starts.