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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Sat January 11th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 9

Post Time 5:55 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 ACCOMMODATE EVA could return to a top effort in this third start of the cycle and subtle changes. They return from the layoff in stakes company in November not quite to the level and requires a STRETCH out from the sprint stakes race last month. Jockey J. Barbosa takes over and for the S. Ducoing barn this season has shown a positive $1.04 ROI boosted by the 17-1 winner, Dre Me Less earlier this month. 

Gulfstream Park Race 5

Post Time 1:19 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 PRINCESS BETTINA is one of a few in the field with stakes experience over the turf and two-turn distance with form to run back to that fits as a contender. Starting out her career, the form out in California from 2023 fits with speed figures and class and even with subtle trips over the summer (2023) for T. Pletcher. She returned to California returning from the layoff racing X_BIAS in the Lady Shamrock stakes with "trips" that followed leading to an abbreviated 2024 campaign. Freshened and relocated for this year with potential intent in the second start off the layoff and with trainer B. Lynch. They wheel right back for this stakes race after the 12/20 return chasing WIDE (and WARM) in hand/TACTIC- tracking outside horses and NO_PUSH late returning with a rider change here. 

Santa Anita Race 7

Post Time 4:32 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

ML favorite #5 CULLEN J put forward a B effort on 11/15 (5f) though also showed NO_FINISH and stretches out an extra furlong. Based on the others with experience they could take pace pressure; #9 LORD DUNMORE showed early speed (PRESSED) on debut against opening company and after stumbling/TROUBLES+ and RUSH in the October event.#7 HOTHEAD physically appears surface versatile moving to the turf today for a HOT barn/rider. They had TROUBLE on debut and projected to IMPROVE however has not shown progression. 

FTS #10 DAWKINS presents as a turf runner and longer bodied type should benefit from the outside draw. They appeared well-prepared for this debut and the barn is capable with the right runner to pop first out.