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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Thu January 16th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Fair Grounds Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 WILLIAM'S LEGACY finds a considerable change in class with today's lower par a big shift from the three starts to date. That change is paired with the more obvious stretch out and surface switch, changes that most of the others find as well and neutral. #7 MO DIVA presents upside second off, stretching back out and moving off the rail after taking KICKBACK on 11/29. 

Fair Grounds Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#3 CONFIDENCE GAME has yet to take a big step forward as an older horse, though some of their better races to date back been recorded over this FG main track and fit on par with today's race. They find a softer par for the first time in a long time and wheeling back from the Tenacious Stakes with TROUBLE_S and WIDE trip. They appears no worse for the wear returning with today's timing for a horse that can more often than not require additional time between starts. 

Santa Anita Race 1

Post Time 2:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 MIDNIGHT STRIKE earned a follow from the debut. They showed run after the SLOG making a WIDE MOVE X_FLOW and solid GALLOP+ to present an IMPROVE off the experience. 

Santa Anita Race 4

Post Time 3:30 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Trainer D. Blacker has started off the meet strong with 4 wins in 8 starters and that trend noted with the long layoff (740 days) return for #1 VICTORY MATTERS - on that turned in  BTL effort on debut compromised with the break (SLOG, TROUBLES+) and solid middle MOVE earning a follow. 

Santa Anita Race 9

Post Time 6:00 PM CST
Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#9 J DUTTON had a look on the STRETCH out last month at LRC and perhaps still holds upside from that race and wheeling back under similar conditions with a rider change. With that said, K. Frey jumps aboard #5 MIO BAMBINO one that turned in a BTL effort at the level back on 9/8 at DMR and similar last month pairing a BTL at LRC; however, this will be the first time around two turns and has that to prove. 

Turfway Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

Both #5 TALENT SHOW and #9 BEACH WEDDING will get the bulk of attention for their connections and earned figures/outcome exiting the 12/18 common race - a race with a LOWER par than today's event. 

Value should present in that case and upgrade the two second time starters from the 12/12 common race:  #4 JENUTH figures less "obvious" though also had TROUBLE made a WIDE MOVE and can IMPROVE one that was unable to show their best and should put forward a top effort here; #2 WHITE ROCKS had TROUBLE early and showed run making a WIDE MOVE into the place finish.

Turfway Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#8 STARLIT SOFI is worth a longshot look finding some class relief and number wise should move up naturally with today's group. The overall numbers are not strong though some intent with limited success with J. Felix, today's rider aboard.