Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 7 Night Shadow 6 Timeisonmyside 5 Make Some Noise

4-WHO’ZZZ THIS SKY-Will be extra tough from this better post

5-FOX VALLEY TYREL-Exhibits a huge late move

7-HOLDEN STEADY-Gets a red-hot driver

2-LOULITA-Been I long time since she was in this easy

1-TALK ABOUT VALOR-broken equipment cost him in last
4-ROCKEFELLA LINDY-Interesting that M. Miller chose this one

5-JULERICA-Just beat many of these

1-COOL BLUES MAN-Missed by a half to Julerica

6-KEY INGREDIANT-Was right there with top pair

3-TIME TO RYDE-Consistently right there

1-DÉJÀ VU BABY BOO-Meets her easiest field in a long time

7-BOMBAY PARKWAY-Figures prominently with the drop

10-LOUS MANDALORIAN-Tough post but drop does the trick

6-ZENA LOU-Just finished ahead of top choice

3-YA CAUGHT-broke at start of last two races

1-FOX VALLEY MONACO-Been very good this level

7-SHARK SOLICITOR-Narrowly beat Monaco in last

8-LEGAL LIAR-Better than he showed in last

8-RK’S TONI-Won last despite a midrace break

3-FOX VALLEY TASHA-Just missed as the odds-on favorite

5-LIFEISBUTADREAM-Been knocking at the door

3-HELLO SWEETIE BOY-Returns to Hawthorne and drops

9-REAL COOL COLE-Won at least five of last six

2-FOX VALLEY OZZY-Might share with drop to this level

1-SAILOR SAM-Can play Popeye again

9-FLICKADAWRIST-Didn’t have the best trip in last

8-FOX VALLEY PRESLEY-Guessing gets into the picture late

2-FOX VALLEY CAYMAN-Chased the lone speed in last

3-RJ ROCKS-Needed the race over the track

5-NICKS MONSTER-Faces a bit softer group

4-AUTUMN WINDS-Always a speed threat

6-ALLY BABA-Just second this level

2-HS REMINGTON-Figures if he stays flat

Sophomore #4 PRIME POWER recorded the highest figure by far for their debut finishing second at the FG while chasing recent stakes contestant, Gunmetal. They have kept up their training since given enough foundation and recovery coming in to make this second career start could even see some confidence with the circuit and distance change as well as test against older.

Another pair from the FG with the 4yo second time starters: #6 BAYOU BLITZ also makes the ship holds the route foundation from the debut last month an honest effort behind established runners and dominant off the pace winner, Orizzonte with the Asmussen trained El Maginifco holding place and perhaps present value over fellow second time starting 4yo #2 DARROW showing up for B. Cox– one that was schedule to make their second start under similar conditions here on 1/17 showing intent on that front though still out to show where he fits all around as they had been training with stakes horses last year and this year the workmate to stablemate KY Derby hopeful Admiral Dennis at the FG. 

#2 QUEEN WILHELMINA can be given a look right back and what is reasonable with the class change though made for a fit in the conditional MSW race two weeks ago though compromised as part of the chain reaction of TROUBLE_S and taking KICKBACK behind horses playing a role in the outcome, similar KICKBACK and TROUBLE impacting the outcome for #5 COSMIC CHIC to upgrade  as well. Will also note an EX_EXCUSE with the TROUBLES+ as well for #7 TACTICAL EXPRESS on the day one that spiced up the exotics back on opening day at 89-1.

#8 PALMILLA’S BET also had to deal with KICKBACK- though a bigger hurdle while in against open company just over a week ago. That race should provide fitness wheeling back for the third start this season and move to an outer post something to assist with their runstyle to find the right trip while just a third attempt in statebred MCL company.

#11 MY JULIA finds the class change and while the 6f distance might be shorter than their ideal they can make it work at the right level, the class drop in play here for the second start of the season and showed similar race-to-race improvement last year. That could translate to early speed as well noting they took part in a Very Fast early pace for the route distance closing weekend last season. #10 MO HOPEFUL lacks stick late though also a runner that has been part of Fast or Very Fast early paces in their three sprints and perhaps the timing second start back while remaining at the MCL level looking for every edge given the weight break with the apprentice rider aboard. 

#10 TABLE MONEY brings in current form for this third start of the season and changes with the key class drop and shift to an outer post. They have early speed though not a need the lead type like some of their rivals and that combination can assist to fall into the right trip.

#6 CHOCTAW ZIP brings in upside for this third start of the season. They have held speed figures and should appreciate the DROP in class and subtle change in race dynamic to suit their runstyle from the two races this year.

The change in dynamic and trip should upgrade #9 CHUPAPI MUNYAYO as they make their second start of the season a change from open statebred claiming company with the race lost at the break. That 1/7 common race with rivals #3 YOU VEE CEE can be kept in the mix for the minors once again a consistent type though had a favorable trip last out and still up short at a shorter number. #12 ATTA PARTY fits as a contender from an individual standpoint though from the outside and other pacesetters in the race could be forced early and expend a lot of early to factor in the trip they need to compete and run their race, that group all around can be kept in the minor mix. 

The plan for #1 THIS DAMSEL MAYFLYON 1/19 might have been PREP as to sent for the lead, a change from the prior races and a TACTIC-al change that went against the race shape, as part of a Fire/Contentious early pace. They should benefit from the fitness and overall class drop finding a similar second off pattern and quick turnaround last March with a game place finish.

#8 SIMPLE DREAMS can be upgraded in this second start and IMPROVE from the debut effort and trip on 12/15. They showed early interest making a RUSH to recover from breaking a step SLOG and middle move before flattening out late. The form from that race has held going forward and while there has been a little more time between starts upgrade still follows as well as intent with Santana taking over, a key rider change in this maiden category.

In terms of value it is tough to take a shorter number with #10 TEXAS SEQUOIA as a runner that lacks early speed and pace trip dependent from off the pace. The class drop is key and overall form and figures fit though does come down to trip. The value or lack of is also in play for #5 ADAMANTLY though of the two has shown tactical speed at times and the 12/6 effort was a winning one on the day though had a Fast early pace to MOVE into late. 

#1 WARM DAYS could be treated as a FTS with the tougher class back in December at CD and TROUBLE_S from off the pace where the top three raced forward finishing together at the wire. The changes all around suggest intent and with Bealmear aboard, hitting the board with runners from this barn last season. The race back on 12/1 at CD was a much higher par than the events #6 GEEZ ELOISE exits and while they have recorded figures that fit on the drop and positive change to the one turn distance overall does not have much of an edge as the favorite and perhaps that opens the door at least to look for an alternative on the win end.

Trainer I. Mason sends out a pair in this race with #2 COMMANDER DIXIE and #3 CHAPTER AND VERSE we have seen CHAPTER AND VERSE to assess form and noted as the pair worked heads up back on 12/27 and overall visuals might even give the edge to the FTS as they both land here. COMMANDER DIXIE has the poor stats in this FTS category and jockey to overcome something that should be easily compensated for on the board.

#11 DON’T POST IT has trained consistently and race ready on debut should put forth an honest effort here and another to keep in the mix. 

The connections have been looking for the right spot to return with #5 TRIPOLINA scratched from a few races since the December allowance including the Pippen Stakes. The allowance effort local looked to set her up for the stretch in distance making a WIDE MOVE and CLOSE continued to GALLOP+ out. TRIPOLINA showed class breaking her maiden on debut and pairing up wins with the second start in the Display stakes closing out the juvenile year with black-type, the place finish in the Mazarine, something of a class edge here along with figures on par.

Both of the R. Moquett runners fit on their best day: #2 IN JUST MY HEELS has shown progression with racing and age. She was dominant scoring the allowance last month, though finds the class rise and higher par from that event and might even require a step forward once again to come away with the win. #6 STELLAR LILY showed a similar pattern last year a dominant N1 win in January and just could not quite carry with the rise in class to puck up another win though held her form and figures and off the races this season, third off and the change from the stakes in the first part of the meet should be sitting on a peak effort. The trip and mile 1/16 is still a test for both and pace and trip for STELLAR LILY as the prime hurdle on the win end though left in the mix.

McPeek also with a pair complementary runstyles as #7 MISS HEBRIDES is vulnerable in this race at a shorter number - she has been at her best on or near the lead showing as much last month with the open length win, though assisted with the race shape and track profile, does not look to hold those same advantages here; #8 LET’S DUET had neither advantages in her favor two weeks ago in the Pippen Stakes though stablemate Corningstone winning the race was an okay outcome for the barn. LET’S DUET is pace and trip dependent though in this field should have pace to change and could easily return to a competitive outcome in this field. 

#4 VERY COSMOPOLITIAN was upgraded with the move to statebred company back in December and all around upgraded from the trip. They projected to show some early speed then SLOG trip compromised; and the winner of the race, Caliente Star an open length winner from off the pace was a live FTS on the day and a strong effort from that one, one we have yet to see run back.

With that outcome, #10 PLINKO CHIP made an early WIDE MOVE XFLOW was BTL to hold place on the day and should benefit from the start and again with the outside draw can rate outside horses. To her outside #12 SHE’S A DREAMER turned in one of the higher figures in the field though despite running against open company finds this change a step up in class.

#8 CONFIRMED FORGERY could be overlooked from the group returning from the 1/18 common race. The debut overall might have been a race they needed, worked just a few days earlier and from the rail broke SLOG and slightly ducked in giving up ground at the start. They chased inside well off the pace and while there was pace to run at late making a CLOSE being on the inside passing horses showed interest to move forward from. Some interest landed on #11 CALL SADIE bet down from the 15-1 ML still has to step forward here and colder on the board #9 MISS MACY staying on as the BOS tracked by the winner, Stephanie Starfish, a well-intended FTS. 

Both #7 NASTY HABIT and #8 THIS IS USCAR are cross entered over the weekend and fit this race both included in the selections should they land here as they have a look and fit in both spots. NASTY HABIT is sitting on the AE in the Saturday race and likely to land here included in the selections and the connections pointing to this meet all around even showing some stakes consideration entered and scratched from the Byerly Turk last race week.

#9 WENDELSSOHN wheels back from the Byerly Turk and holding place on the day in a blanket for the minors and while capable with a top effort that would be required again here and lacks projected value with the assigned morning line and creating value on others, others pointed to this race.

#3 TIME FOR TRUTH has shown progression in the races returning from the layoff and yet to return to the higher numbers they are capable of keying off the efforts last season. This could be the time and place perhaps given the RP start in November with this OP meet right around the corner and on the off-track on 12/27 took KICKBACK before moving WIDE on the deeper part of the course. Bejarano taking back over could sit as a further positive, the two pairing up with success last season. 

#6 EASY ACTION also projects to hold IMPROVE coming back for their second start of the meet. They had a subtle trip on 12/13 and even before the gates opened were up against it from the projected race shape and post position – noted as both change here and favorably.

#11 MIYAGI projected to move up on the class DROP last month at TP and perhaps still holds that upside noting the race shape on the day – while the winner Ahmado stayed on as the BOS to win the race was slowing late. #10 GOLD MEMBER also could be given a flow upgrade from 12/20 when racing at the higher MCL level and drops back down and then some for this race, though keying off that December event finds a similar race par.

#4 ENIGMA CODE also showed early foot going back to their debut nearly a year ago over this course and distance and upgraded with the race under their belt and change in post coming back with fitness for the second start of the season.

The early pace is noted as that appears to be required for #5 PHENOMENAL DRAWN the long time made though consistent runner arguably overdue for a win, though needs everything in their favor and based on form and recent outcome projects a shorter number. The same for #7 SAFE BET when it comes to value as they have come up short at shorter odds in the past and multiple times when favored, not certain they will be favored here though is assigned that role on the ML.

The value could be lacking on #1 MULA while certainly could present a move forward in their second start. The drop is made in terms of claiming tag, though overall par a lateral move taking on older runners as just one of two sophomores in this race. 

#6 CONTRARY CHIEFTAIN moves up in this second start of the season/cycle and key change in class. The shift from open $8k to conditional $5k is notable and with the form, class, fitness should be sitting on a peak effort and their runstyle to work out a trip in this field. 

#4 FREE AND HUMBLE comes into this race with current and buried form to compete in this spot. They started off the form cycle with the WIDE trip off the long layoff and less than ideal "intent" with a potential PREP opening day, 12/26 and upgraded with the preferred timing here to 1/4 on the quick turnaround and trip - SAVED TRAFFIC CLOSE GALLOP+. Those factors along with race shape and trip bring them right up to compete and looking at OptixPLOT hold a similar position and Large Square to #5 MS BRIGHTSIDE the assigned ML favorite. 

#6 CATHAL moves up off of the races in this cycle and "trips" coming into this race. They turned in a solid effort in the Hollywood Derby (G1) despite the running line and finishing position - the type of effort to IMPROVE on. They did not appear to have that chance wheeling back in less than 30-days in the Mathis Mile (G2) heavily washed out (WARM) and against the race flow making a late MOVE into a Slow early pace.