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Mon February 3rd, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Oaklawn Race 1
Post Time 12:35 PM CST
#7 ROYAL LAUGHTER following a
progressive pattern that has seen success second off in prior season to present
live with that similar timing here. She broke her maiden in the second career
start and last season turned in a game effort with a less than ideal start
(SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and with TROUBLE just missed in a tight photo for the win.
The Rosin barn started off cold though picked up the win on Sunday with Boogie
Bode – a second start of the Oaklawn meet pattern as well.
The figure going back to the place
finish last March for ROYAL LAUGHTER sits in line with #4 EVOCATION returning
from the common race on 1/3 – a good effort all things considered might have
been shorter and finds a notable rider change with R. Santana taking over. Pace
and trip will be key and #2 GRACE GIVEN should show early speed though joined
by #3 BLUE EMBER another live runner stretching back out second off with upside
from those changes though one that requires a top effort in this group.
Distance still remains a question
for #1 CRYSTAL SYMPHONY though upgraded from the BTL effort back on 12/15 and
from the 1/3 event put forth an honest effort with the WIDE trip and perhaps
some intent and even show a little more early speed wheeling right back and
with a rider change along with the rail draw as M. Garcia takes over.
Oaklawn Race 2
Post Time 1:03 PM CST
The ML is the main knock on #2 ROYAL COURT one that has
throughout their career recorded the highest figures in the field and has that
edge in this race. With that said they have come up short in the 15 starts to
date often at shorter numbers, a tougher to trust on the win end and can create
opportunities outside the box while more than capable of remaining true to form
and picking up a minor share.
By contrast, a longshot case can be made for #3 C J’S BOOMBA
one that has been patiently waiting as they have been entered twice this meet
under similar maiden conditions. This is the second start of the season,
finding class relief from the competitive event for the level on 12/29 and
return to the route distance, the distance intent from the first two starts.
(Some intent could also have been in play going back to their second career
start sent off co-favored in October at HS Indy a race with a rough break,
subtle trip and the two month break that followed with intent for this meet.)
#9 GOLDEN LIGHT takes on some older rivals for this second
start. They caught a solid group for the level making their debut last month, -
a tough spot going the two turn distance first out and the only FTS starter in
the field on the day. #10 LOVE IN LIGHTS debuted on the same day, 12/14 though in
a sprint against older as now a 4yo and going to get the attention of the two
while on numbers does not hold the edge and there should be plenty of price
compensation for GOLDEN LIGHT.
If looking for a horse from 12/14 #1 I GOT A GUY like ROYAL
COURT a long time maiden though has recorded numbers right in line with that
rival and has the local experience and should be sitting on a peak effort third
off (12/14 race was caught WIDE coming off the layoff sneaky close on 1/18).
Oaklawn Race 3
Post Time 1:32 PM CST
#1 DR. STORM looks to hold intent
claimed back in September while on a progressive pattern and from the BTL place
finish on the day. The connections likely forced to be more patient than they
wanted to be returning three months later for the December race though a race
where they have the fitness, ran for the higher tag and met some of today’s
rivals #4 COWBOY CODE and #5 BOLT’S TRESURE on that day noting DR. STORM was
bet down to 9-2 from a 15-1 ML.
The winner (and show finisher) of
that 12/21 race trained by S. Asmussen, a barn that shows up here with #6 TIS
CHARMING first off the claim. TIS CHARMING does not hold a class edge compared
to COWBOY CODE and BOLT’S TREASURE though shares similar speed figures and in
terms of stamina TIS CHARMING could have that edge and notable claim with two
other Asmussen trainees in the race and they dipped in for this runner.
Common rival from opening day #3
AWOL takes a slight rise claimed from the 12/22 race, a race with a similar par
to today’s event and no reason why they should not hold their form here, a best
with some racing luck is needed to get the win though if there is the contested
pace and lack of stamina from the others AWOL working their way into the
number.
#2 FULL VICTORY is the lone
sophomore in the field though holds some upside especially with the races under
their belt and class drop. The debut in November appeared a prep showing early
speed at CD at the 7f distance and mentally unprepared on 12/7 the first start
at Oaklawn in opening week, reluctant to load and less than ideal trip playing
a role in the outcome and still presents upside and a better placement for
their abilities.
Oaklawn Race 4
Post Time 2:06 PM CST
Tough to get too creative with
runners like #3 PATTERN BET that have recorded higher figures consistently
throughout their career and returning to statebred company and similar
conditions as far as claiming tag from the win last April.
#7 LADY ASTRID was recording
similar figures at CBY from the summer and closing out the year. She is capable
on her best day though does return from the layoff – a top effort required and
shorter numbers for colder connections bring value reservations. #10 SUMMORYA
also projects to be shorter though a consistent type at the claiming level and
has the benefit of a start this season, tough to leave out of the mix.
#4 SHE’S STORMING must return to
her races from back in 2023 to be on the level, though if ever a time and place
this should be it. This marks the third start from the layoff and bringing in
progressive effort and figures from the PREP on opening day along with the WIDE
trip for fitness and showing a late MOVE from off the pace in a race where the
pacesetters dueled throughout to finish in a photo with the top three clear at
the wire.
#9 SHE BE SHEEHAN has been
effective on the lead though still must show she is as effective with sprint
speed as route speed and there are some others in here to keep the early pace
honest including longshot #11 NAVAGATIONALBEACON with the weight break off the
layoff and perhaps more logical though with buried form mixing in #8 PETULA as
they make their second start of the meet and holds competitive efforts at the
sprint distance and statebred claiming level from the races last year.
Oaklawn Race 5
Post Time 2:36 PM CST
This is a tough race with the
projected race shape and route distance those change for #4 FEATHERS ROAD one
that can IMPROVE off the 1/18 trip and perhaps the class and speed will just be
enough to carry with the distance change. They will stretch out around two
turns for the first time in their career – 29 races to date for this 7yo.
Number wise #5 RUNWAY MAGIC is
right there with FEATHERS ROAD and has the two turn experience including races
over this course and distance from prior seasons and perhaps intent with that
change and return to this circuit and notable the connections had been working
at OP though shipped to HOU to work on 1/19 during a time where the track and
training was precarious with the weather conditions.
#10 STAND PROUD is logical with
recency and overall career consistency at the route distance – the distance
change that upgraded them two weeks ago. A place finish running against the
course profile behind the pacesetting winner, Good Like Magic.
It is a bit of a stab though going
to make a longshot case for #6 VANISKY. Coming back off the layoff in September
at HAW he was not quite race ready though this year at Oaklawn he has shown
improvement race-to-race and that form and fitness might just be the right
combination for this group. They find a sneaky change in class from the 1/3
open claiming race, a much higher race par and for today’s par they have plenty
of races in range to compete. An even
bigger stab with #9 GOLD BARON though for similar reasons as this one has raced
into shape this year and has form and fitness and back numbers from 2024 on
their best day that fits on par.
Oaklawn Race 6
Post Time 3:14 PM CST
John Ortiz has a solid pair in
this race: the likely more fancied #5 FLY LIKE THE WIND makes their second
start of the season and second time in for the claiming tag though a class
change from 12/20 when in against older company and should move up and show
early speed with that race under their belt in today’s group. The early speed it noted as they are likely to
be tested in that trip given the complexion of this field with rival #7
TIMBAVATI also making the move from open company to statebred and fit from that
tougher condition along with fitness recording two works since.
#2 SUNNYANDSEVENTY is softer
number wise than their stablemate though still upside returns to the claiming
level, the right level for their abilities to step up in this spot. The race
back in December was likely a PREP and not much intent closing out 2024 taking
a swing in stakes company off a maiden win. Overall form cycle is noted with
those races – an every other type that should be sitting on a peak effort.
They return from the 12/15 common
race with #4 STHENIC one that has a contender look and value that could see them drift up from the assigned
6-1 ML. Going back to December they appeared to need the race and tough to see
as it was just off camera though encountered some late TROUBLE in the stretch
and overall not asked for their best to see step forward from them here.
Oaklawn Race 7
Post Time 3:44 PM CST
#10 AMERICAN BAND is logical as
the horse to beat coming back under similar conditions getting the job done as
the favorite earlier this month against many of today’s rivals. The outside
draw and overall race shape should allow for a similar trip in this group.
From that 1/3 common race #1
SEQUIN LADY was compromised with their trip overall state to finish unable to
show their best on the day. That race with the running line and finishing
position should be overlooked and cycling back to a top effort and subtle
change in race shape could see her return to competitive ways. Will also note
the EX for #7 FEARLESS KRISTIE from that common race perhaps one that is
tougher to make the case for though one that with that note should be showing
more early speed with a clean break to play a role in a contentious pace.
A contentious pace with the
inclusion of #6 AUSTRIAN NAVY one that perhaps needed the start off the layoff though
lacking stick late and a line drifting into a rival while tiring in the
stretch. #4 MAZOKU scratched out of that
1/3 race and another that has some tactical speed while not a need the lead
type and perhaps intent waiting for this spot and reuniting with Bealmear, the
rider aboard last season including a pair of wins.
Oaklawn Race 8
Post Time 4:14 PM CST
#1 BEDARD should be sitting on go
with early speed from the rail. He has been entered a couple of times this
season and perhaps finds favorable timing now as the B. Cox has started to find
their groove this meet. Overall they will be tested stepping up against winners
and from the front running score back in October at KEE – a race where the top
three ran 1-2-3 around the track with minimal change in running order and
softer as far as race strength to consider as the projected favorite.
#6 KING RUSSELL looks have their
best chance here second off the layoff and fitness as a subtle trip and flow
upgrade from 1/4 moving off the inside and in today’s race shape where they do
not need the lead though tactical speed to fit today’s race dynamic.
#8 DAILY GRIND caught the eye with
a BTL effort running X_FLOW on opening day and showed improving making a WIDE
MOVE in the common race last month. The pattern of SLOG for those races created
some hurdles though fitness, progression and one that has shape tactical speed
in the past could also find that in this group and rider change back to R.
Bejarano.
#3 MONEYSHOT also caught the eye
back at Hastings in the BC Derby a BTL effort with a massive middle burst and
from that race and organic change in runstyle might have found this one wants
to settle and make one run as prior to that race had often been forced to the
lead. This is a step up in class from the recent claiming event, though in
terms of par not a huge rise and going back to the March maiden race locally
last year found a similar par and place finish that day.
Oaklawn Race 9
Post Time 4:46 PM CST
#4 SPIN THE BREEZE follows a
favorable second off pattern for the connections. The connections used a
similar pattern last year with the route for fitness and the ship from the FG
turning in an honest place finish and career high figures with the place finish
in March with Vazquez aboard. Class might have got the best of her on the day
and reasonable with the change here and lower par from the OP events last
season.
SPIN THE BREEZE can sit and rate
and should have pace to chase with the complexion of this field that includes
her quick stablemate #10 VALHALLA VIXEN one that could move forward as well in
the second start of the cycle bring in that early speed from the outside and
with the weight break given a rider change. VALHALLA VIXEN should be sitting on
a peak effort though could find a hurdle with race shape as others could
contest the lead.
A contested pace should assist #9
MUSICAL PRAYER though overall runstyle, form, class and figures are in line
with #1 UP ON THE EDGE and #3 UP THE CREEK runners that also share UP-side in
the second start of the season changes in class and race from their first start
this season to step up in this group and potential dynamic – all three playable
UP ON THE EDGE the least obvious higher odds of the trio.