Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 MO RUM presents a class edge as the new face at this level and based on their races to date should move up naturally in this event. They find a lower race par since taking on winners and from their race this season back on 1/5 over an odd track the route distance, a X_FLOW upgrade.

#8 AIR IT OUT makes their return to Oaklawn and back to the claiming level  in this second start against winners and of the form cycle. They were able to establish a PERFECT trip with the maiden win back in December over the course and distance – based on today’s race shape could fall into another one here. Number wise they fit on par and even hold back number from last spring to jump back up to, those figures above today’s par.

#10 FASTENED is a bit of a stab though another runner that going back to last spring holds figures on par. They have yet to run back to those numbers since the claim and for these connections though perhaps this is that time and place. This season they have been compromised at the break, stumbling/TROUBLE_S back on 12/20 and had TROUBLE in the 1/3 event finishing in a blanket for the deeper minors as the top two finished together on the day.

#5 MORE THAN FIVE also fits logically in this race and off the efforts this season should be right back in the mix. With that said, they project shorter odds and for a horse that also has their own pattern of gate issues and often a late run as a result. 

#2 RIO CHAMA brings in upside and with the course experience at this level from back in the first part of the meet. The race back on 12/13 was the first off a layoff and first at the route distance. In addition they caught a higher par, finds a sneaky DROP here and from that WIDE trip at a time where the connections were also just finding their footing on this circuit and have started to pick up lately.

#1 MCDUDE finds a similar pattern from that common race and experience around two turns under their belt with a lower par today to compete with todays field. Going back to 12/13 they were potentially over the top in their form cycle as a horse that had to work HARD to break their maiden on debut and put forward another game though taxing effort with the WIDE trip chasing the open length pacecsetting winner, Smoken Wicked back at CD in November.

Of the horse with a win over this course and route distance, #5 AUTHENTIC GALLOP could be overlooked making their return following the win back in December in MSW, a slight class and race par edge over #4 LANDING CRAFT and #6 FIRST DIVISION those two stepping up to take on winners today. LANDING CRAFT earned the highest recorded figure with the win three weeks ago and had upside to suggest they were sitting on their best, though might have been carried by the course BIAS/profile. #6 FIRST DIVISION was slightly flow aided making their late run and will stretch out off that race though the distance to run around two turns was the initial plan noting a pair of scratches from races prior to the 1/18 start. 

As far as #10 DERBY DATE their back class makes them a major player and the angle to upgrade last month responding with the place finish on the day. They still must step up from that effort making a WIDE MOVE for place, though still a touch short of a winning one on the day and finds a similar group/par here. Similar consideration all around for #3 DRIFTER one that could benefit from today’s projected race shape though another one that might have to dig back in his career and find those better race in order to win.

#5 SMOKIN HOT has shown progression in each return race this season and could be that peak in this third start back. They were given a flow upgrade back on 12/21 and a look on 1/24 off that race and especially so with the front wrap removal – something to look for today as that could be in play.

#2 DICEY WAGER could be just that and a stab in this race as they must improve number wise to compete with this field, a group that has recorded faster races to date. With that said, this spot back in claiming company is a better fit for their abilities than the allowance back in December, a higher par a much higher purse though tough to fault the connections giving the drop with the statebred eligibility.

#11 HUSKER BUTCH is another though should land at higher odds and a case where they are in the right time and place to compete. This marks the third start of the cycle and using a route last out is a trainer pattern that has moved this horse up in the past - not always a win, though intent and a move forward.