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Hawthorne Race Course

Handicapping Analysis
Wed February 26th, 2025

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Emily's Analysis

Turfway Race 1

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 FREEDOM DREAMS could present the edge of the front runners over #6 LOTTA LISSA one that takes the class drop and should move up naturally with the change though still must step up overall - noted as the projected favorite. If looking for a runner to improve on the class change today's conditions suit #3 LIBERATION DAY one that brings in progressive form and upgraded off the 1/29 trip with the rider change following the TACTIC- and TRAFFIC. 

#9 BAYTOWN SHINKU recorded a B OptixGRADE under similar conditions back on 1/1 and can IMPROVE coming back from the 1/29 effort. #8 CHRISTINA OF MILAN moved up on the change in class recording the B- making a RUSH MOVE and GALLOP+ moving up after a pair of WIDE trips. 


Turfway Race 2

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#10 COTE D'IVOIRE is far from the most likely winner though one that holds form on par to compete with a top effort. That form is buried doing back to last March on this circuit and spent the majority of the rest of the 2024 season against a higher class. Returning to TP and keying off the 1/17 race turned in a competitive B- OptixGRADE effort some subtle adversity with TROUBLE- SHUFFLE before making a WIDE MOVE.

Turfway Race 3

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

With the right trip and race shape #8 LINCOLN HIGHWAY comes into this race well overdue for a win and with buried and progressive form into this race. He recorded a BTL effort in N2 allowance company last May followed up with three EX - EXCUSE trips and returning to this allowance level and this circuit has moved up. 

Turfway Race 4

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#2 OUT N OUT DISGRACE out was overmatched and outrun last month at OP and interesting to show up on this circuit for the connections while remaining protected. A top effort is required though did record figures on the higher side of today's par back at WO and does find a lower par today for the second start of the year. The ownership is the same and the barn change noted as 2025 has been productive for trainer J. Esquivel 

Turfway Race 5

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 HEAR THE QUEEN is a vulnerable favorite in this race a race that does not set up in terms of pace while stepping up to take on winners for the first time. 

#8 POPPY THE PRINCESS find the DROP returning from the WIDE trip last month (could present value and similar form/trip to rival #3 HEARTS UNITED also logical to be clear with the class change) competitive from the 12/26 - a BTL effort making a MOVE through TRAFFIC. #12 RANDO is upgraded from that same 12/26 event requiring a DROP and coming back on 1/31 improved number wise and with the B- OptixGRADE in a similar starter allowance event however with a higher par. 

Turfway Race 6

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#5 ROCKET HOSS has moved forward (Grades & Fig) with each start since beginning the cycle on 1/4 and another move forward should have them in contender status at this level. 

Turfway Race 7

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#7 VODKA N GINGERALE takes the big drop for the thirds start this season and while they present upside from the EX back on 12/28 and a X_FLOW upgrade from the 1/31 start this placement is still a test in against older and as a result finding a higher par - things to consider when it comes to value. 

Turfway Race 8

Analysis by Emily Gullikson

#6 SANT' ANTIMO recorded a B OptixGRADE with the place finish at this level and par back on 1/15 and wheeling back in 17-days for the 2/1 event might not have allowed enough time for full recovery. In addition, the trip did them no favors a subtle TACTIC- (and noted rider change) to IMPROVE off the outcome. 

In terms of runstyle and Plot position, #3 DEVILS GOTTA GO shows up similar (if not stronger Large Square)  to rivals  #4 BROKEN JUSTICE and #10 NOAH'S ARK two of the likely top betting choices.