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Wed March 5th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Turfway Race 1
Post Time 4:55 PM CST
#5 NO SHOW could run as advertised with the potential to REGRESS as the return from the win with the step up in class. There are alternatives even with the preferred #3 VINO ROSATO of the two given a similar runstyle (and bigger Q4 Square) of those two with the N3 race earning a B OptixGRADE back in January.
#8 EMERSON'S DREAM also earned a B OptixGRADE at this level back in December a race that is buried and based on the ML could be overlooked in here and a contender with a repeat of that effort. The class change and trip could allow #7 SHE'S ARODEOQUEEN the first run and the right change to move up in this second start of the cycle, WIDE trip on 1/29 and return to G. Ashton, a prior win rider.
Turfway Race 2
Post Time 5:25 PM CST
#1 INDURINGHOPE perhaps is not the "most likely" though the most interesting in this field. This should be the time and place for them to step up - a second start of the season following a higher par and open length pacesetting chalk winner on 2/15 while racing in the rain/WEATHER. They finds the class drop for this race and going back to last Feb showed a sneaky good effort to support a move forward from in this third off the layoff.
Turfway Race 5
Post Time 6:55 PM CST
#8 SCOOT DADDY finds considerable class relief showing up in this spot off their recent races and even going back to December at WO - a N3X level. Their most recent, the 9/22 sprint at WO under similar conditions, race par and with R. Hernandez along for the ride.
Turfway Race 6
Post Time 7:25 PM CST
#2 DAIRAGO is logical coming back under similar conditions from a B/BTL place finish last month; the top two together at the wire. They were upgraded with the circuit switch and lower par from the California turf MSW events. It would appear looking at their running lines a deeper closer though was just a function of dynamic, a horse that was no further than 5L off the leader at any point of call.
Turfway Race 7
Post Time 7:55 PM CST
The early pace could be more contentious than it appears on paper with a higher 40 SpeedRate, something that could present a challenge to the runstyle of #10 SOUND THE CHARGE, the ML favorite and #7 RANSOMWARE, the second choice. That race shape should assist #5 KYGO though at the same time #6 IOYA AGAIN, the longer of the two and coming off a TROUBLE trip playing a role last month still posting a show result.