Handicapper Tips & Picks

Returning from the long layoff is the hurdle #1 PENS STREET in the role as the favorite, though otherwise a solid fit as an individual. She will return for a claiming tag since claimed last summer and has been protected since and the $35k tag for today’s event higher than the $25k she was claimed at and while there is less concern in that case it could create another class hurdle.

The long layoff also comes into play for #5 SUNNY ISLE BEACH though one that has been able to run well off the layoff in the past and this $35k claiming level is one she is familiar with pairing wins under similar conditions and par last spring.

#8 TEMPLAR RED requires a top effort though reason to project that effort here third start off the layoff and upside off the current cycle of races along with speed figures that fit on par. She returned off the layoff in January with a big effort to stay on for place as the BOS through an X_FLOW pace and a HARD effort all things considered. To their credit they improved number wise though buried in outcome for the higher level allowance just two weeks ago along with a subtle TRAFFIC trip and could follow intent back to claiming company along with Juarez back along for the ride. 

#6 BLOW TORCH is a bit of a stab though a case can be made they have had an “excuse” in each race this season from post position to trips to racing against the course profile or flow and under a higher condition and par to today’s event as well. Things could come together today given the class change as well as intent with that move for the connections.

#9 COST BASIS should be live here following an every other pattern of improving races, the return to the sprint as a flow upgrade staying on through a Very Fast (early and late) pace two weeks ago. COST BASIS holds a pair of wins over this course and 6f distance under a similar conditional claiming level events in prior seasons.

#12 DERBY DATE feels like the safe option in this group given current for and finishing positions along with the connections. They returned in a competitive place finish behind the win streaking Raymond back in January and followed that up with a competitive race last month, a race that had trip adversity in the 4^th place result from the TROUBLE_S to TRAFFIC in running. The lack of value is less exciting to put on top though a similar lack of value carry in this case for both #3 WORTH LOOKING and #5 DR. SOULFIRE two runners also logical and capable – no real big knocks other than the projected odds. 

#4 OUR KEEPSAKE comes back off the freshening for this belated second start of the meet and seasonal debut. She brought in upside off the CD allowance sprints with progressive form and that carried into the December race despite the outcome posted an improved number while adversity with the TROUBLE_S and making an X_WIDE MOVE.

#1 DAISY DUKE fits this condition after racing for the higher $75k tag two weeks ago. Her overall form class and speed figures fit right back today though will have the timing as a test with the quick turnaround back in two weeks for this race and with a change in post position after pairing top speed figures this season that could require a third top.

There are some value concerns with #7 COPPER EM as well as she returns to this circuit and catching a higher par for the first time since her juvenile season when racing at the higher allowance and stakes levels. #6 ITZEL could drift from the assigned 3-1 ML a number that appears on the shorter side of fair odds for her in this spot on the current form. With that said, she presents upside from the recent dirt races though still requires to show a top effort on the surface to present a contender where the value becomes a requirement. 

#12 FLAT STORMIN has the edge in this field on class making their first start at this $25.5k level and consistent figures this season to move up naturally with that change. She will also move to an outer post and after some traffic trips that could assist as well.

#3 LAST GASP brings in upside return off the layoff and from the races this season. They caught a higher par with the 12/27 race and the far outside post contesting a Very Fast early pace while also heavily washed out (WARM) on the day. That race was followed up with the January event and move from one post extreme to the other with the rail and stumbled (TROUBLE_S) making a RUSH into a Fast early pace and in hand after losing ground. She returns today with the freshening, two published works and the weight break with Romero aboard to offset carrying a higher weight as a 4yo in this field.

#4 GRIZMO has the colder connections as a liability and overall still must improve. With that said she has shown progression with each start and moved up at this level last month and comes back under similar conditions with a different draw. In that same line of thinking #13 LINE RUNNER is on the AE though can be upgraded should they draw in. They projected to move up with the class drop two weeks ago and could still have that move in her given the trip adversity from start to finish with in running TROUBLE that played a role in the outcome.  The timing might not be as ideal wheeling right back off a tough trip. 

#3 MISS ANALYZED had a look returning off the layoff to this level just over a week ago though reservations while giving up recency and the COLD connections and rider that only increased returning with the front wraps on. With that noted and the quick turnaround, some intent could be in play stretching back out to the familiar route distance and especially with that noted equipment change. She will require a lot of racing luck to overcome the current trend though not out of possibility and with price compensation.

#2 SENSIBLE CHOICE has been a consistent type earning checks though looking for the win, this type of DROP appears key to find the right level to do just that. She comes into this race giving up some recency though not a big concern given the timing and trips in the past and while retaining Chuan, the rider that has been aboard since the claim and the two races this season for the connections.

#9 GRACE GIVEN does not hold any strong edge though current form and figures sit in line with rival #8 EVOCATION with GRACE GIVEN the higher odds of the two coming back from the 2/3 common race – a shift when favored on the day. GRACE GIVEN projected to show early speed though breaking SLOG and checking in TROUBLE into the first turn was unable to establish that position and run their race as a result. Claimed and right back off the trip as well as Arrieta the place rider from the pair of starts back in Kentucky could present another positive.  

The three inside runners all bring early speed and a challenge to overcome with one another in this field. #4 HERE COMES BRAYLON could hear their name called with first run tracking that set and falling into a figures run trip back under similar conditions from the 2/15 common race in their second start of the form cycle.

#6 CREW DRAGON following a similar race-to-race pattern with a similar tracking run style coming in second off the layoff and third Oaklawn start. The long race last season was a higher N3 claiming event and place finish on the day that would translate to a competitive outcome here. The placement suggests intent placed where they can compete on this circuit without a drastic change that could see a claim.

#5 LEAGUE OF LEGENDS requires a lot of pace to target and run at and a lot in their favorite to run though in form this season with the competitive race and “winning” type B effort with the place finish when given the race flow, the Fast early pace to CLOSE into.

#9 HAILSTORM is preferred over stablemate #1 LEND IT TEWMEY coming back off a win with a rise in class. In terms of class HAILSTORM has that edge of the pair, though less of an edge in this group overall and while capable and can be left in the mix, the ML is borderline fair odds while requiring a top effort here and faster race all around than the prior Oaklawn starts and speed figures to win. 

#7 HEAVENVILLE can be upgraded as they make their second start back of the season and X_FLOW upgrade from the 2/24 start. They showed progression with each race during the juvenile campaign and similar could be projected here. With that in mind and their runstyle can sit in line with others in this field showing early speed and the pace should be honest as that early pace can include the two stretch out sprinters, #2 FARLEY HALL and #5 HYMN.

HYMN recorded the co-high figure posted in this field for their debut, the right ride (TACTIC+) while still GREEN to step up with the experience though still a hurdle to take on winners and stretch out at the same time, things to consider as the projected betting favorite. His works since the debut are positive and some confidence with this placement to expect another honest effort.

Their debut figure tied with the debut number posted from #6 HANDSOME PANTS from last September another with the right ride and since that race has yet to duplicate that number. Today’s group should allow their best change with improving figures in this third start of the cycle, foundation with the route distance and the ability to pass horses.

#1 BERMUDA BLITZ has shown improvement with each race this season though assisted with the race flow and SAVED trip with the outcome in the 2/24 event and the TROUBLE was not significant to impact the race result. The lack of value also looks to follow #8 PASSION RULES one that has shown some gate issues from the first two starts and showing up in this spot if the right class test to see where they fit though a class test all the same when considering as a horseplayer. 

#6 CELENTANO will make their dirt debut though brings in tactical speed and local works on the main and should be race ready off the series and placement all around. Jara has picked up live mounts for this barn and better outcomes when utilizing horses early speed. And their presence in this race could see a trip with confirmed front running #10 GOLD MEMBER and CLOUD WITHOUT REIN both on the outside and could see others show front running speed as well.

Overall there is not much between #1 REWIRE and #5 AIR IT OUT in this race and both from the 2/7 common race back in this spot. The timing changes for both in different positive ways with REWIRE now second start of the cycle whereas AIR IT OUT can tend to follow an “every other” pattern and a little more time between starts. Both horses can be included in the selections though wanted to make space to mention, #2 NATORADE.

The layoff lines are a reservation for #2 NATORADE not only returning from the 242 day break but also in the published works, gaps in the series as they show up here. The connections had entered back in December and forced to be patient and while there are those current form and fitness concerns overall this is a horse that fits and competitive and the number should remain in the double digits to counter the reservations.

Another layoff longshot runner #4 MADMARTIGAN is too curious in this spot to not mention. They hold form and figures over this course close to par from the juvenile series and subtle “trips” last meet.  A fast early pace, something that could be assisted by the Timothy Martin trained uncoupled pair #3 STATLER #8 LOUD BOY assists MADMARTIGAN with their closing run. 

#8 DISARM lacks recency as they return for the 2025 debut from a 167-day layoff though the strong edge in class and speed figures that is tough to dismiss. The connections had success coming off the layoff in May at CD though not their strongest figure one below par though had a bar shoe on at the time and something to note and check for today.

Trainer B/ Mott does not send many runners to Oaklawn Park though when they have it has been often for this local ownership group and with a soli success rate since 2018 with 16% winner and 67 % ITM with a couple of those wins with longer layoff runners as the case with #5 BENDOOG showing up here for the first start of the season. Despite giving up recency overall form figures, class and consistency fit on par with the lone out of the money stateside finish in the G2 CT Classic last summer in part to rider TACTIC-.

#4 CATCHING FREEDOM also brings a level of class and while he was a vulnerable favorite coming back from the layoff in the Mineshaft (G3) he could be tough to take off that effort needing to show more even while expecting to be short. With that said and perhaps the positive is looking at OptixPLOT he does not have a strong pace advantage though does have a Plot position change that is interesting moving into Quad I for the first time in his career and to show more tactical speed could be on display. The rider change to Arrieta could have them drift from a shorter 4-1 ML and the change could signal intent, a rider that is not often used by Cox though in that sample holds a positive ROI (with 31% win and 56% ITM since December 2018). 

ML favorite #13 ALOHA BABY requires some racing luck to draw in and in running with the outside post and off the pace runstyle while certainly capable making the return to MCL company and one of the few older runners in this group.

The change in class coming back from the 2/17 event also follows #5 AUNT DIXIE one that turned in a competitive figure on debut when in for the $50k tag against open company back in November at CD and showing early speed with their hand forced given the outside draw in the two starts this season.

The change in class could also suite #10 MY SWEET ANGEL one with self-inflicted gate issues in both races though showing progression with each start number wise and the foundation and drop should be the right move for them. The class change also should benefit #6 HOLLY SPRINGS off the visuals from their first two starts and could look for the front wrap removal as a potential sign – jockey Amin Castillo looking for their first win this season at the time of this analysis picking up the mount.

#12 A VISION OF HOPE should be as race ready as ever for connections that can pop with a FTS on this circuit at the level and around this time of the year. They do not send out many runners in this category overall and can often make it count when they do.

Jane Elliot picks up the call on A VISION OF HOPE was aboard #1 PRESLEYS TURN for their layoff return two weeks ago. A solid effort give the time off and had back efforts to support all around and even in this case with a slight rise in claiming tag from that event. The class rise also noted for #8 SENDING in COLD hands stayed on for place through a Very Fast early and late pace to give credit all around. Will also noted from that 2/28 common race #4 SUNDAE SPRINKLES one that had a lot of early backing from the public opening up as the favorite from a 15-1 ML and seemed to want to show early speed something that we could see wheeling right back in here.