Handicapper Tips & Picks

#2 BYE BYE MILES recorded the co highest figure in this field last month, a number that was recorded in a higher MOC level though with a lower par than today and while number fits on par, the class is a rise. #6 MAX GOT EXCITED recorded the same figure going back to 1/25 – that race in MSW company and show finish that showed some class weakness to suggest this drop should assist and while both capable, the shorter odds are less appealing on horse that have just that one number in the four race sample that makes them a player.

FTS #2 FAIRFIELD BAY has taken awhile to make this debut though has been on the grounds pointed to Oaklawn and intent on that front. The works should have them as race ready as they will be and while the barn does not have the strongest debut win percentage, they are capable, and this spot has the opportunity for a new face.

#4 FLYING PRIVATE is a slightly new face showing up on this circuit second start back from the layoff and returning to the sprint distance for the first time since their debut last May -a competitive MSW event at CD. That race was followed up by a grass race at DMR and then a long layoff. They returned last month from that 202 day break with the front wraps added and upgraded from the dynamic making a RUSH into a Fast early pace and in hand after losing ground. 

Tough to knock #5 MUSEUM QUALITY one that has consistently recorded some of the higher figures in this field and from the effort this season including the race at this level two weeks ago, a contentious higher par event despite the same MCL conditions and overall honest effort given the post, pace and WIDE trip.

Number wise #7 LORD DIAMOND is also consistent number wise and in terms of outcome, though has not run as fast as MUSEUM QUALITY. Despite also taking up the outside post last month, overall had a PERFECT trip. The timing and reclaim suggests intent though appears one that could run true to form enough to leave in underneath but mention others in the selections - another share with a lot to need in their favor for the win, without much upside at this point

Both of the AE present upside with #14 CAT STORM a “winning” race for the level in the same 2/15 event with significant TROUBLE+ and #13 BIG BOURBON RIVER a better chance to draw into this race and to be overlooked from the running lines and finishing positions. Visually they appeared to required the class drop from the $30k MCL events and has moved forward with racing and from the juvenile starts and with the class drop. They caught a higher par two weeks ago and could present a move forward giving up 43-days of recency into that event and now carry conditioning second of the cycle.

#3 GETTY’S REVENGE is a slightly new face coming back after nearly a year from their debut. This 4yo has had those setbacks noted from a belated debut until this belated second start and some gaps in the works in between. That all around often is a sign of a horse that must come out race ready and in terms of class closer to a lateral move if not a slight drop from the competitive higher level statebred MCL event last season. 

#3 AWESOME ANNMARIE picking this spot after scratching from a higher N1 allowance last week where she appeared overmatched. This starter condition is one she has been knocking around at this season pairing figures and show outcome, a touch short of that “winning” effort though does find a slightly lower par – at the same time a slightly lower number on the board.

#9 SUMMER SHOES has the class and speed figures to compete with this group though requires to find those races from the 2022-23. While that was a few seasons ago she has struggled with layoff lines – including the one she returns from here - and trips since and perhaps the confidence builder with the claiming score in January along with the rider change is just what she and the connections needed to see and positive they remain protected here.

#2 ROCK STAR PARKING projected to move up on 1/24 with the class change though has significant TROUBLE+ to create an EX – EXCUSE and still showed a late CLOSE while in hand (NO_PUSH) unable to show their best on the day. With that said and some intent claimed, given time and now protected in a spot they prior to that January claiming race would not be eligible for, they still must find their better races from the past to compete here. 

#3 HEY BOSS comes into this race with current form and their runstyle should suit today’s dynamic with a contentious honest early pace projected. They bring in potential intent with the rider change and for this third start of the cycle  starting off the cycle with the outside post and higher N3 level back in January to move up last month racing X_BIAS – the course profile tough to make up ground.

Part of that early pace should include #4 MO RUM stretching out and wheeling right back for this race and change in class. They have shown some distance limitations while routing in the past though capable under the right conditions and trip for the two turns. Some distance limitations also carry to #5 FEATHERS ROAD one coming into this race with form from the two February starts though does find a higher par today and those factors creating reservations in the role of the expected favorite.

The return to the route distance could benefit #8 J T’S IMAGINATION wheeling right back and compromised with the incident in running last week showing late interest after to run on late. If they return to the 12/20 effort they are a major player in this race. While they did run against the profile in the 1/17 and 2/8 event to present some upside, they would need to turn it around here with no excuses.  Even with a Fast early pace a deep closer like #12 FIGHT’N READY needs a lot in their favor in order to win. With that said, there is price compensation as they should be overlooked and some value lacking on others to make the case for them here and to step up with the change in dynamic. 

#12 LOGICAL MYTH is upgraded all around for this race and should be very live with the changes in play. The class drop being the starting point to move up naturally though off the trips this year also followed with significant TROUBLES+ racing X_FLOW back in January followed up with a strong CLOSE racing X_BIAS last month.

With C. Torres sticking with LOGICAL MYTH, Leparoux takes the reins on #4 GO CATS – one that can be given a look back with the less than ideal post impacting the trip with ground loss (WIDE) and in running TROUBLE still to their credit sticking it out for 4^th last out. The TROUBLE on the day also noted for place finisher #11 KHOZY MY BOY, both horses bringing in current form though a slight rise in class where a top effort is required.

#5 SEVEN FLAT is placed where they can compete and upside in this second start off the claim and cycle stretching back out to their preferred route distance. They will also move off the rail for the first time this meet, something that impacted their runstyle and trip in both starts.

The projected double digits on the ML is enough to given #8 CHAOS REIGNS a mention in this spot as they like LOGICAL MYTH find class relief in the third start of the season and a flow upgrade from both of those starts contested over off tracks. They have early speed and enough to show their presence up front at the same time can past horses something they have not often been asked for at the route distance though capable of. 

#9 MAXIE LADY appears live as she makes her belated return and second career start. There was some interest favored in the PRM debut showing early speed stalked by the eventual winner. She projects to show early speed here and the connections capable in this maiden category on this circuit as well as overall positive ROI with this jockey trainer combination.

#5 BUZZWORTHY finds a lateral change in terms of par from their debut last month at the FG, MSW event that could hold quality while waiting for horses to return form that event and contested over a tricky FG main track during Risen Star day to present some upside all around.

In terms of the local group and where #10 GOOD CALL recorded the highest figure back in January there are the layoff lines and rise in class coming back today from a two month break for the new connections to weigh in terms of value. Both #2 COCKTAIL HUMOR and #4 ANNIE BEE exit a higher level MOC event with the par and against older to present a slight class edge and flow upgrade to COCKTAIL HUMOR whereas ANNIE BEE might have benefit from the race flow to run on for place, now has race day experience. 

#5 WHERE’S MY RING has shown intent to run at Oaklawn noted they were entered under similar conditions to today’s race back on 2/1 with Arrieta named, just a week before the SA sprint and show outcome. They should be fit off that return and intent following with the circuit switch and distance change and could even look for a front wrap removal with that addition last month off the layoff.

#1 PROMISING has some hurdles coming back in this spot lacking recency, finding a surface/distance change as well as requiring a faster race than what she has recorded in the two starts to date. That is notable as she is lightly raced, showed some class with the debut win given a Fast early and Very Fast late pace and off that race was on a quick turnaround fits against winners and stuck with the outside post and WIDE trip over the WO turf. Following those races last year, she had a break in the works and what appeared Oaklawn intent training locally in December and now showing up on race day.

Some of those similar hurdles carry to #7 FEELING BEACHY as she steps up to take on winner though overall has not run a “bad” race and has shown surface versatility where an honest effort can be expected and Santana with the call has experience aboard going back to the turf races closing out 2024.

#3 STANDOUTSENSATION might not necessarily be “better” than rivals #4 MAJESTIC OOPS and # #10 CARARRA though projecting higher odds of the set and overall there is not much between the trio when assessing class and timing for this race. 

#3 MIDNIGHT PRANKS brings in upside and form for this race returning in this spot from the freshening and the pair of January starts. The allowance on Jan 4 was an EX with the trip and placement followed up with a WIDE trip and still needed the class relief from the higher conditional $50k claiming event. With that upside they should find the right level to compete and right trip for their runstyle.

#2 HI YEA also with some upside from their races this season and another with an excuse going back to December looking for the right level. They looked to have found it two weeks ago, though compromised with the trip and track profile, tough to make up ground the pacesetters running 1-2 finishing together at the wire and all around unable to compete on the day while still recording a credible figure.

#7 BEN DIESEL is another with some hidden form off their races this season and freshening back at the sprint distance. Perhaps the race to key off is the one with the 11^th place outcome back on Jan 4 with TROUBLE in running and noted BLANKET finish at the wire with the majority of the field at the wire and rival #6 SAMURAI PRINCE part of the DH for the win. 

It is not an easy task to step up off a maiden win taking on winners for the first time though a pair of quality fillies that could make that transition. #9 PLINKO CHIP has shown improvement number wise with each race and foundation with each start along with versatility as nothing has been handed to her from the WIDE trip on debut and the far outside or rail draw in the starts this season.

#5 SHE’S A DREAMER also overcoming the post positions from a solid figure with the rail draw and SLOG on debut to the outside post with the circuit switch just two weeks later for the 2/2 maiden win, flattered with PLINKO CHIP coming back to win. While they will be required for hold the recorded tip from the maiden score to compete with the established group, she has been given time and one that has been able to pass horses, something that could be key here as the early pace could be contentious especially with #1 FLY LIKE THE WIND along the rail and #7 TIMBAVATI among others with natural early speed.

#12 QUEEN MALLARD showed run last season and encouraging coming back from the layoff in December to record a new top effort. She clearly was well-prepared and off that big effort has been given plenty of time before returning here and has the experience with the outside draw they fall into again, though trip still required all around. 

As contentious as a stakes race gets with each horse a player whether a contender in their own right or in runstyle contributing to the “pace makes the race” scenario. The dynamic looks to shift for the group returning from the King Cotton, a scenario that could make things tougher on the win end for the always honest #1 TEJANO TWIST, the 2023 Whitmore (G3) winner guaranteed to run late though should better suit #2 HAPPY IS A CHOICE as they look for their first graded stakes win.

#8 CLOSETHEGAME SUGAR will get a rematch against HAPPY IS A CHOICE making their belated return from the September CD stakes race closing out 2024 – CLOSETHEGAME SUGAR running some hard races up to that point and not on their A game. This spot is an ambitious placement first start of the year right into graded stakes company though in terms of class and speed figures they fit on par and coming off the layoff has been able to fire fresh and overall show up almost every time training race ready out at the FG shipping in here – the first start on this circuit for trainer A. Rice.

#5 JAXON TRAVELER won this event last year and would be surprised if the 10-1 ML stuck here, despite the field depth not only as the returning winner but also on a four race win streak with a lot of “1’s” sitting on top to entice the public. The pattern coming into this race is different than last year with the recent layoff lines rather than recency and does have that hurdle while capable and while not a needing the lead type though has tactical speed in line with stablemate #4 BOOTH earning a big number with the LONE trip last out (unlikely for that here with #6 GLENGARRY in the field) projected shorter based on the ML of the Asmussen duo stepping up in class today for their graded stakes debut.

The #9 DURANTE of old could be new again with current form and showed a big improvement with the allowance win last month and wheels back here. They have the back numbers to support a repeat figure as class at the same time keying off the dominant G3 Bold Ruler win in the fall of 2023. They bring in an edge on recency with certainly capable types in #3 GIANT MISCHIEF and #7 MILES AHEAD returning from longer layoffs and facing a hard knocking group that require the right price to play. 

There is a scenario especially if #13 BOLT AT MIDMIGHT is unable to draw in off the AE where Santana puts #2 KING RUSSELL in race likely tracking stretch out rail runner #1 CALIFORNIA TIGER and sit the right trip. That pace scenario along with their class and speed figures could come together in the right time and place to land the belated second career win. As far as current form they entered this race in the third start of the cycle and from a place finish last month tracking a Fast early and late pace to build fitness for a top effort today.

The pacesetting winner of that 2/3 race Bedard was represented by Brad Cox/C. Torres the team represented here with #12 ETHAN ENERGY. While they are not always the best gate horse all around an honest race horse and given the class rise coming back for the second start of the year and sneaky eligibility from that win last month to run in this allowance conditions with the ship could signal intent. As noted the gate issues and pattern of breaking SLOG from last year, that followed in the 1/12 Tampa race though quickly and on their own recovered putting themselves in the race before going on to win.

#4 MENA comes back from two honest efforts under similar N1 allowance conditions though does catch a slightly higher par today and slightly flow aided in those two starts with projected shorter odds – things to factor on value not necessarily “pick the winner” handicapping. #6 DANCE SOME MO is a little lighter when it comes to class though recorded a similar figure to the recent numbers of MENA during the early part of the meet.

Overall class and figures are lighter on #8 HARLEEZY one that probably would be better served in a softer spot to pick up a win though with that said returns back under N1 allowance conditions in this second start off the layoff while upgraded from the 2/23 race day where they took a legit stumble coming out of the gate – a pattern for many on that day creating a rare track bias – and tough to hold against them showing run making a MOVE after.