Handicapper Tips & Picks

#4 IT’LL DO will get a do over after standing in the gate last month forfeiting their race at the start. They return without a published gate move though does hold two published works since the 2/17 race and might have done some gate schooling as well. They can and expect to show early speed and as far as the distance could be a tested though have been placed at the route in the past and follow upgrade back on 1/5 in a Very Fast early and Fast late pace. The rider change could be a further positive with that trip as well as the drop.

#2 HUMOR ME NOW is another with documented gate issues and the pattern of breaking SLOG which should be expected once again. The added ground from the sprint coming back off the layoff is a positive as well as the timing and going back to the 2/7 race was less fancied than their place finishing stablemate Air It Out to present more intent all around today.

#6 EAST FROM WEST could be off form at the same time this could be the time they rebound. They turned in a back on 12/6 fits on par following that a WIDE trip despite the rail draw and a flow upgrade back on 1/8 and given 41-days into the 2/28 race starting the form cycle and now second off and a rider change to Chuan, a live rider for this barn.

A case can be made for both #1 ICE AGAIN and #5 ROYAL COURT wheeling right back from that 2/28 common race. The distance change and first start of the cycle could present a move forward for ICE AGAIN one that to their credit ran a new top with the show finish and around two turns off the bench. ROYAL COURT a recent maiden winner though one with established form, ran on late in a race where the top two raced forward to finish 1-2.

#3 RAZORCAT has shown improvement race-to-race, and the connections take the drop where they can compete without being to desperate with the move second start off this current layoff and following a BOS effort and slight flow upgrade as the 2/14 race was starting to slow late.

Their recorded figure from 2/14 sits in line with the consistent #2 HALFWAY TEMPTED taking closer to a lateral move with today’s race par despite the higher claiming tag. The consistency is respected though could be shorter on the win end and on the board.#8 MAJOR MACK falls into that same category especially at this class level though the 4yo does find a lower par today for the first time since last spring and could be higher of that pair.

Similar value concerns could follow #9 BOLT’S TREASURE a reclaim for Hartman and back at the $50k level. Number wise they fit with today’s par and field on class they lack an edge and similar when looking at the figures for #4 STOKE THE FIRE making their return here off the layoff and dirt return.

#7 STUDENY scratched out of a $30k MCL event last weekend to run here instead and for the higher MCL tag. Like last week making the case, they present upside off the two races to date and the changes with class and distance that should suit this individual – however today find a much tougher spot and while a live longshot case made last week, they are a legitimate longshot here. 

#8 ST. ALBANS RAID returns to the higher MCL level where they showed run in the first two starts as a juvenile and upgraded with the class change returning from the freshening here. The debut likely a prep with the more fancied stablemate and moved up with the trip and rail draw back on 12/20 - a race that has been productive with three next out maiden winners – including Fearless Lady the runner that ran down #2 KERRY’S KISS back on 1/31 – that December race in total with four winners total one place and at the time of this analysis no others from that race have run back.

#3 FROSTED MIRACLE must step up though could be the time and place. She was giving up local experience on debut shipping in from GP and caught a race shape with the top three including their place finishing stablemate running 1-2-3 around the track – FROSTED MIRACLE making up ground and the form from that race has held going forward. The second start could have been too much too quick back on 13-days and following another SLOG from the rail caught a Slow early and late pace without much change in running order impacting their position and outcome from off the pace.

#1 MADDIENLIZZYSHONOR also must pick it up in the speed figure department though upside being lightly raced the foundation around two turns on the dirt with that experience edge over rivals #5 MOON OVER CHOCTAW and #6 MY SHOT and the 2/17 number not far off the recorded figure from that stretch out duo that lack a class edge at the same time.

#4 LOTTERY TICKET can be projected to run their race here on debut. While Brad Cox is capable with these type of debut runners for the West’s this is a slightly different category than where they have had success in the past. 

#1 JUILLIARD brings in current form and likely intent with the change in class and return to the sprint distance. The return to claiming company three weeks ago was a positive change especially coming off a legitimate EX – EXCUSE on Jan 4. Trip will be key from the inside once again though with a clear break, not always a guarantee can show early positional speed to find a trip.

#4 MARKET STREET also projected to move up with the shift to claiming company and despite the outcome did move up all around to give a look back today under similar conditions and first off the claim. They trip was compromised with rider TACTIC- and TRAFFIC back in January and CLOSE for show last month racing in the rain and WEATHER impacted poor track conditions.

#7 EASY ACTION could also present upside returning from that 2/15 common race where the class change dropping in to the claiming level figured the right move, though the timing might have been less than ideal back from a less than ideal trip 13-days earlier and upside from the race dynamic going back to the December sprint.

The class change is also positive for #2 JUST ASK WATTS one that turned in a game effort albeit a PERFECT trip back on 1/24 and should hold fitness from the outside post and route distance last month with intent as Esquivel remains aboard and the addition of blinkers. 

#12 SIR EXTON should land a lot of public support here coming off the recent figure and outcome last month – a winning effort for the level though did have a PERFECT trip all around. Not to say they cannot find another here; they land an outside draw and off a new top figure whereas the prior numbers lack a strong edge over some others in the field should they take even the slightest step back.

#4 VADEN moved up with the class drop last month and back efforts including a race at the route distance in the juvenile series of races. Intent should be in play following that pattern coming into this race second off and another class DROP.

The early pace should be contentious enough to assist the late run for both #8 BIG ANDY MORT and #9 MR. BUTCH. Number wise there is not much between the pair to include both though on class MR. BUTCH lands as a new face, the first time at this MCL level.

#2 BUTCH has a longshot look with class change like some others in here taking on open company though other more the positive changes to move up in this third career start and progressive numbers to suggest they have another move forward. Going back to the debut, physically and visually presented as a horse that looked to require the class DROP and STRETCH out in distance, those condition changes they find today. Also from that first start, they showed run in spots after acting up in the gate a TROUBLES+ and X_WIDE MOVE. The second start was also adventurous another less than ideal start from the rail (perhaps part of the reason for the blinker addition) and in running TROUBLE while making a WIDE MOVE, something tougher to see with the running line and finishing position.

#10 LEGALLY LUCKY presents upside in this spot and third start of the cycle. She was outclassed in the first two starts this season at the higher level allowance condition and brought back down to the claiming level though perhaps not the ideal distance sprinting on 2/18 and upgraded racing X_WIDE against the course profile. The early pace does project to be honest and suit their runstyle.

#2 LIL TOWN SIS finds subtle class relief with the softer race par today showing up on this circuit distance wise could still have some questions around two turns and would need that class edge to carry. The return to the main track could be intent and a turf-to-dirt pattern was used last summer at ELP to result in a win. The trip and pace from the 1/31 race presents an upgrade as well chasing WIDE on the Very Fast/X_FLOW early pace in hand after losing position and as the race was slowing late.

#3 RIGHT TRAPPE does not hold any overall edge in this group though does appear to hold intent picking this spot following a scratch earlier this month and able to get Bowen back aboard. This rider has throughout her career had success two wins and a place for this barn at TDN and even going back to 2023 a win over this course and mile distance for previous connections. 

#1 JUST STEEL put in a credible return three weeks ago given the layoff and sprint distance something that should set them up for the rest of the year and stretch out in distance. That said they not catching an easy group once again, a field of established runners where a top effort is required and trip with the rail and complexion of this field – many front running types and while not a need the lead still brings in naturally early speed.

#8 NASTY HABIT is an honest race horse, and the connections will test them here with the stretch out in distance for the first time. They have that hurdle though otherwise fit on speed figures and class and moving forward with each race for the connections and since returning from the layoff.

#7 RUNAWAY JACK also will be tested with the route distance though as good of a time as any as they bring in progressive form into this third start off the layoff and sneaky efforts this season. The put in a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ at this level on 1/31, a race that could have easily been a PREP after 412-days away and raced X_BIAS three weeks ago.

If looking at more established route runners: #10 UNDERHILL’S TAB and #11 ONTHESTAGE fit that bill – two horses capable on their best day, can pass horses and a potential pace scenario that should suit their runstyle. That said they have come up short under similar N2 allowance conditions in the past when looking for a top contender all around though would not discount keeping in the mix. 

#6 FLASH WEAR has had some excuses at times including the most recent start, the G3 Honeybee adversity at the break and handling timing not ideal while the pacesetters ran 1-2-3 with minimal change in running order. She has the foundation and figures to build from going back to the juvenile season where today’s third off should present a peak effort.

#2 ENSORCELL was finally able to run to her potential with the MSW win and figure last month after the prep sprint series at CD and EX – EXCUSES in the first two route races. That is noted with the effort last a representation of who she is and could even present a move forward with the confidence and foundation taking on winners for the first time.

#4 CALIFORNIA SUNSET can be assessed as the most established and consistent with the allowance races this season at the FG a similar par and competitive numbers as they make the circuit switch and higher purse today. Vazquez takes over and takes off #5 ENCHANTING though that could be by design as the TACTIC- in the SUN Park Oaks were questionable giving up position early and ran on for a clear place behind their first run stablemate winner, Runnin N Gunnin. As far as the longer odds many were inflated with 1-5 Maysam in the field, finishing off the board though wheeling back two weeks later to win the G3 Santa Ysabel at SA. 

#4 GETTING BY showed class against open company on debut at CD and backed that up overcoming the course profile with the dominant maiden win on 1/23. This is a step up and a test against winners and older rivals, though they appear to have some overall ability and come out of the race with the three published work including the a bullet half mile on 2/7 and intent with the connections picking this spot noting they were entered in a similar N1 allowance event on 3/1.

#10 TOUCHDOWN ARKANSAS also returns here to take on winners and with a level of class and confidence going back to the debut, the Rainbow Stakes placement. They returned well-prepared off a strong series of works for the maiden score on 2/23, an effort that could signal a peak effort and from that standpoint will be tested to at the least pair up to compete here on the three week return.

Going back to the 2024 Rainbow Stakes, #8 LANDLORD finishing second, a BLANKET finish at the wire and honest a step up from the MCL debut win and validate the effort with the win coming back against open company over an off track and honest effort returning in December though still could have to improve number wise along with class and at the same time timing with another break and layoff line with gaps in the published work tab with nothing officially recorded in January.

This is a tough ask in terms of putting out the selections with both #13 AL’S ROMEO and #14 CYBERTOWN sitting on the AE and both included should they draw in with competitive races at this level and figures that make them contenders just require some racing luck all around and in terms of form cycle move up that duo even with the similar figures for #7 BRAHMS IMAGE a flow upgrade from the 3/1 race just two weeks ago though had had a tough campaign and would need another top effort here.