Handicapper Tips & Picks

With a compact field, might try sneak by with a single and bit of a price in #4 CUPID’S WAR. The 5f distance might not be their ideal, though the same could be said for others in this group to hold against them and them alone. CUPID’S WAR has the local experience for this barn with the first start off the claim in June showing up in MSW company; then opened as the favorite in the July turf sprint and X_FLOW upgrade in both of the route races before finding the sprint distance their home in the maiden races closing out 2024. That FG meet provides the edge on recency exiting the FG meet and current form though it might not appear as such looking on paper. However if looking at OptixPLOT and Past 3 Runlines (FREE every race day at Hawthorne https://hawthorneracecourse.com/handicapper-picks/optixeq-plots/) they were asked to run against much tougher in the 1/17 race and WIDE trip in February followed up with an X_WIDE trip three weeks ago showing an ABOVE Class rating compared to some others in this field.

The ABOVE+/ABOVE designations are tough to ignore on #5 MINIMO if feeling less bold to single in the first race on opening day. MINIMO also holds an edge on recency and potential intent second off where they should hold fitness following a WIDE RUSH in the 3/10 race and represented as the lone Square on Standard (current form) and will note with the Plot there is no Surface/Distance data to Plot given this group as they will also be racing 5f for the first time. 

#1 TEAM TROY brings in recency and current form to Hawthorne off the Turfway series and fitness from those races placed where they can compete. They projected to move up with the class relief, though still caught a higher par on 1/25 at the $30k MCL level, showing rush and X_FLOW upgrade as part of the DUEL; form that translated to the place finish and B- OptixGRADE last month, a figure that fits on par and in line with their stablemate #3 RAMESSES one that shortens up significantly for this race and first time sprinting for this 11^th career start.

Both #5 PLUNDER and #7 BERKUS show up here with some of the higher recorded figures in the field, though will be tested to repeat those numbers on the dirt and at a shorter sprint distance. Something that is not out of the question, they are in very capable high percentage hands though something that will also be reflected on the board.

#2 MY LAST ESCAPADE at double digit odds will be too tough to ignore in here. The class DROP was required from the first two starts in MSW company and moved up with competitive races at the MCL level closing out the Hawthorne season. Distance wise they could find the 5f too short and move up with this race under their belt at the same time has the IMPROVE Projection from the 2/5 Turfway race, a race with two next out winners paired with price compensation. 

The first route race of the meet is a competitive race overall and where pace could make the race. Looking at OptixPLOT, the early pace should be contentious (Sun) and honest (58 SpeedRate) a scenario to assist #4 MYSTIFIER, a solid Q4 Square. MYSTIFIER brings in conditioning from the Oaklawn meet, a competitive race making a WIDE CLOSE back in December and in the following two starts broke VSLOG/SLOG while also compromised racing against a track profile that was “tough to make up ground” according to OptixNOTES.

The Rosin barn will also show up with #3 LINE TO GAIN a barn change and surface switch returning to the dirt and looking to find their top form. They will require that top form to compete here though could find it as they have back numbers that fit on par and the maiden win rider, I. Hernandez back aboard. OptixPLOT has them today all over the Plot with the Standard/current form as a Q4 Circle and Q1 Circle on Surface/Distance as the position to reflect where they had been in the past most of those races prior to the layoff lines in 2023.

Looking at the Plot there is not much to separate #5 BREAKOUT STAR and #7 SLAVA UKRANI to lean towards the higher of the two . Could even give the edge to SLAVA UKRANI, one that ais closer to a more confirmed front runner in addition to holding Hawthorne main track form, something they are proven to handle and could even suggest further intent reuniting with S. Gonzalez. 

#3 STARINA should move up with the return to Hawthorne something that brought success with the dominant/B+  MSW win over this course and distance last June and honest effort back in August entered as an MTO level with the place finish.

Trainer Eduardo Rodriguez could play spoiler with a strong hand sending out #4 VISIONISTA and #6 MO SMOKING in this race and complementary 1-2 as far as runstyles. MO SMOKING has been able to brave on the lead and likely most effect in that role and with an assertive hand. She might not have been able to show the same early foot that paired up the wins here at Hawthorne last season with the much higher SpeedRate in all four of the FG races and finds a lower speed rate today. #4 VISIONISTA looks very live wheeling right back for this second in a week and from the 3/20 start off the 75-day layoff where she was not asked for her best (TACTIC-) and showed run (C+) along with in running TROUBLE – something that does not appear to have been caught in the chart comment. 

#7 ONE PUTT RICHIE has been able to fire fresh and win off the layoff keying off the April win in 2023 as well as a solid figure earned in the April 2024. The barn picked up the lone win last year with Mojica aboard, the only time he was aboard, and recorded their season high speed figure with that August 25^th win to suggest intent here.

Intent could also follow #9 HATCHET CREEK with J. Loveberry aboard one that will make their belated return from the layoff and has won off a long layoff for this barn in the past. HATCHET CREEK can show legitimate early speed and while Sun Contention is noted for this race, the 20 SpeedRate sits on the lower end to not discount a horse to present as a gate-to-wire threat.

Not trying to be a risky girl by not including #10 RISKY BOY based on the projected odds from the double digit ML as well as their form from last season. Especially their form early in the meet; a win first start of the meet (3/23) off the layoff under similar conditions to today’s race. In addition, finding considerable class relief noting a much higher par (87-78) in those two FG races, something alone that could be enough to put a line through those races and still paired up C+ OptixGRADES.

#8 BREAKING NEWS has the horse to beat credentials keying off their 2024 Hawthorne season and consistent speed figures along with early speed. Perhaps the time away and the 5f distance create some hurdles when trying to poke holes at a shorter number. Going back to last March at the 5f distance with the B-/show finish and continued to improve ultimately putting together three straight (almost 4 straight with the photo finish on 6/22) with the 6f distance change. 

#4 WILDWOOD ADIOS looks well placed and solid Plot position as a Quad I Square looking to get the jump on Q4 Square, #6 FLATHEAD FINALE, the morning line favorite. WILDWOOD ADIOS fits not only on race shape/pace (Above) but also for Speed (Above) and just slightly for Class (Average+) in this spot. In terms of class, she ran in a competitive race for a similar level back on 12/4 at Turfway Park and noted 5f distance. They were flattered as the form from that race has held two next out winner, including the race winner Harmonica. Gate issues have been a pattern for her at times making a RUSH from the blocks on debut and very reluctant to load in the 9/12 turf race; her only start here last season based primarily on timing.

As far as #1 CUMBERLAND FALLS she returns with the barn change and to the dirt and throughout her career holds plenty of figures that fit in or above par. Many of those on conventional dirt and arguably her better races on the surface to support that change in footing. With that said, the 5f is a different question mark altogether. She brings in early speed part of the Fast/Very Fast early pace in the two Turfway starts this season, something that could translate here in this group and with the rail draw.

#7 CALLAS also exiting the Turfway meet turned in a B OptixGRADE effort at this level racing in the rain (WEATHER) however did have a PERFECT ground SAVED trip and with those favorable factors settling for place, the top three together at the wire. Ultimately she might prefer added ground with the recent series of route races though her maiden win was a 5f, an off-the-turf $7.5k MCL win at Belterra Park in 2023. 

The trip and distance changes things up for this race and all around factors to upgrade #6 MY LADY SLEW one that has shown early speed and could present a pace advantage. Looking at the Plot, Peter Galassi could be calling her name from the jump though could come down to how much pace pressure as a Circle (weaker finishing ability) late. Some of that Circle is due to placement, running in higher conditioned races last year especially after finding longshot success on the turf. Things change here, perhaps for the positive with the shorter distance as well as some recency and class relief from the two FG races this year.  

#3 MAMBA OUT also brings in early speed and races on her best day that fit on par. She also finds sneaky class relief running at a higher par in the races last summer at FAN/FP as well as the two DED races. She has been given time to reset and regroup and a live look with O. Mojica aboard.

#1 DIXIE PENNY also finds class relief, perhaps more obvious with the recent Oaklawn starts bringing in a level of recency as well. A longer-shot in those races she was given no favors starting off the year with the outside post and moves inside today, something that could assist with trip saving ground and looking for first run.

#4 BE MY BESTIE will also find class relief from the recent two Oaklawn Park starts, races with a higher par and unable to compete on that circuit and race shapes and much higher $33k purse something that should see her move up here. With that said, she is not always the most reliable even when logical and at shorter odds. 

CAPTAIN'S FLAG may provide a little value in a tough race to start the meet. He has run well over this track in the past and drops back to a level where he has been competitive. 2-SHAMAN SEZ is the one to beat if he gets back to his races from last summer. His issue has been poor starts in his last two races. If he gets away clean, he will be tough to catch. 1-TALLAPOOSA drops to the lowest level of his career as he draws the rail. He has just a couple of works toward the return but may be ready to handle five furlongs.

Have to think 7-BERKUS (FR) will be tough as he comes in from New Orleans and takes the class drop for last season's leading trainer. Loveberry returns to ride this meet and fitness shouldn't be an issue for this one. 5-PLUNDER has been running in Kentucky throughout the winter as he comes in off the claim. He just missed in his last as the only concern is if five furlongs will be enough distance for his closing kick. 1-TEAM TROY has tactical speed as he also comes in off the claim. He posted an improved effort in his last and figures to contend throughout in here.

This looks to be a winning spot for 5-BREAKOUT STAR as he comes in fit from recent races in Ohio. Bermudez takes the call as this one has been able to rate closer in recent races. 4-MYSTIFIER drops after facing tougher at Oaklawn in his last three. He takes the blinkers back off today but may still look to get into the race a bit earlier. 7-SLAVA UKRAINI has run his best over this track throughout his career. His best efforts have come when on the front end. Let's see if he is sent away to try to clear from the outside today.

Off the recent consistency, 3-STARINA looks to be sitting in a good spot in here. She was facing open company in New Orleans and holding her own. Loveberry has ridden in the last two and gets the return call in here. Her two starts over this surface have been sharp as she will take a ton of action today. 6-MO SMOKING is another who has been at her best over this track. She showed improved speed in back to back wins here last summer and comes in off a solid second at Fair Grounds in her last. Expect her to stalk and look to pounce in the lane. 5-CURLS NITE OUT merits a look off her maiden score two back in a race that came off the grass. She rated closer in that spot and battled to the wire. If she can stalk Mo Smoking early and get the jump on Starina late, she has a shot to pull off the upset.

A very tough race closes the Early P4 and P5 and is part of the late wagers as more than half this field can win in here. Gave the nod to 3-ONE WAY HOME as the 10 year old still tries hard and has had success over this track and at this distance. He has tactical speed in a race where the other pace is to the outside and Bendezu has ridden him well in the past. Maybe we catch a bit of a price today. 9-HATCHET CREEK is another that has run well at Hawthorne and will provide some value. He's been able to get a couple of works toward his return and should be ready today. 7-ONE PUTT RICHIE is the second Martinez entrant in here as Mojica is back aboard. He won with him last August and should be in a good stalking spot.

No real standout in here as I'll look to the one turning back in distance in 1-CUMBERLAND FALLS. She draws the rail as she comes off the claim. She chased on the drop in her last but I feel the seven furlong sprint effort at Churchill last fall was one of her better performances. Let's see what she shows us in here. 6-FLATHEAD FINALE has tactical speed as she is consistently right there late. She ran well from an outside draw in her last and was able to get a work at Fairmount leading into this race. Expect her to be a factor once again.4-WILDWOOD ADIOS is another that should rate close. She ran well while at a big price at Turfway last December and has worked twice toward this start. Expect her to rate just off the pace in here.

Two horses coming out of the same race at Oaklawn in their last, finding an easier spot in here. Went to the longer price of 1-DIXIE PENNY as she draws the inside and should be looking to clear from the rail. The last time she was in for this price was a win last summer at Fairmount. She should move up if we get some rain as well. 4-BE MY BESTIE was the other in that Oaklawn race as she chased the pace after battling during the loading process. She has run well at Hawthorne and at this distance. The price play could be 10-AWESOME SUNDAY as she will be charging in the lane. She has a win at this distance and worked twice after a start at the end of January in Ohio. Expect her to be flying late.

3-STARINA looks like the best of these. When she fires, she displays a pretty good late move. This is probably the easiest field she has faced since breaking her maiden. She’s had five drills since her last race in the middle of January. Guessing she’s ready for them. 6-MO SMOKING is in better form than most. She’s been racing against Louisiana breds lately and coming from off the pace but she used to display good early speed and she could be tough to catch if they choose to send her to the lead. 1-BEADS completes the route-sprint-route cycle. Expect her to display better early speed with the stretch out. Has a chance to surprise on the lead. 

8-BREAKING NEWS is a versatile runner that can handle different pace scenarios. This consistent runner will probably be laying right off the pace in this field containing many other front runners. He gets last year’s top rider. He races for a barn that does well with layoff runners. 5-ALYANAABI is probably the quickest member of this field. However, he’s had only one published drill since his last race in September. Not sure he’s going to be fit enough but if he does secure an easy early lead, he might be able to keep the rest at bay. 10-RISKY BOY figures to be stalking the early pace and could get up late with an aggressive move. 

3-NADJAMEANSBUSINESS makes her first start against winners. But she is fit, she could be the quickest member of this field, and she gets a sharp rider that will be able to nurse her speed on the front end. 1-CUMBERLAND FALLS has often met better. However, she hasn’t been in the best form and she’s pretty much a route runner, though she has displayed decent speed in the past. However, it might take her too long to reach top speed and this race is so short. 2-ELODINE is another recent graduate. She’s obviously meeting better here but she is in better form than most members of this field.  

8-GO STORMIN GIRL makes her first start for this barn but she’s back at Hawthorne and she has been wildly successful here, scoring 10 0f her 12 victories here. She likes the front end but she’s just as good when coming from off the pace. Should be tough either way. 1-DIXIE PENNY and 4-BE MY BESTIE both figure prominently. Neither is in good form but both ship in from the tough Oaklawn meet where they have been racing regularly.