Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 EPIC BATTLE has held their form and figures though tougher for them to compete at the higher claiming class of competition. The change should move them up in today’s group and value should hold with the recent running lines and finishing positions even with today’s connections.

The same connections bringing back #6 STORMS HOME off the long layoff. The should get attention as the debut upset winner last season and dropping down to claiming company for the first time and back-to-back bullets training into this race. Going back to the races last season, they might not hold much upside overall though pairing figures outside of the 5/26 race, those numbers fit with today’s par.

#8 KONTEEKEE does not hold any edge in this field as they meet others with changes in class and have been running under similar N2 conditioned races this season. With that said, they bring in current form and form that should hold for the new connections claimed on 2/17 given the 39-day freshening a pair of works this month to keep up fitness and Torres taking over.  Interesting to note that leading rider and top local connections rarely team up here with less than a dozen starts since 2019 and close to half ITM looking for a first paired win.

Torres had been aboard many in this field including #5 GLOBAL LEGEND earlier this month and the returning statebred #4 ZIPPY MARK coming off the bench to race protected here and could be live overall though in a tougher spot. 

#7 KARA brings in sneaky form for the connections the speed figure earned in the Zia Park Oaks fits on par for this level and a sneaky good run two weeks ago over the HOU turf to upgrade on the quick turnaround second off into this spot. Trip will be key here with her runstyle one that lacks early speed and tends to need the race shape in their favor. With that said, they could trip to set close or at the lead with the fitness and class change and if not given the complexion of this field should still have pace to chase.

#4 BUMP IN THE NIGHT has not recorded the higher figures posted from others in this field including #9 YES TO CHAMPAGNE, the most likely winner if she can return to top form, though BUMP IN THE NIGHT is not far off when looking at the races at OP last year. Those figures from March and April of last year recorded in the sophomore season and found her way back to the races this year at TP with progressive form and numbers as the connections ship in and slightly step as what could be a sign of confidence.

While a more reasonable case for #1 EVOCATION and #3 GRACE GIVEN especially when looking at horses to finish ITM; a longshot case was made for #5 MISS ANALYZED two weeks ago as she wheeled back for the second start of the meet and distance change. While that race was not the upset or showing much, she did have TROUBLE_S and NO_PUSH after losing ground. They come right back today perhaps expecting a little more as well with a rider change to L. Quinonez, a rider that has been aboard some longshots over the years with success and could be key with that change and further intent with a front wrap removal. 

#5 SEVEN TAYLORS will get a lot of attention for the connections coming back to Oaklawn though perhaps not as much attention as earlier this month at 1-9 finishing off the board behind their stablemate winner. They will return to run for a MCL tag and has picked up minors though still a touch short on the win end – something that also comes back into play for #9 STOKE THE FIRE with a higher par wheeling right back in less than two weeks and while capable prefer others in this group for the top spot.

Number wise #6 COME TO PAPA has run just as fast and shows intent with the change in class back to MCL company for this second start off the layoff with the three week turnaround and live rider with Arrieta picking up the call for this barn.

#2 FIRST BID being one of the older more established types in this field does not hold much upside overall though in terms of placement is back to the right level to compete. Going back to last season, visually they needed to DROP a drop that is not come until 12/20 and recording a B/”winning” effort on the day. Number wise they have remained consistent this season, below par for the MSW level, though on par for this MCL group. Perhaps the big question is the distance making the change though along with the higher class in the two route races last year had less than ideal trips and layoff lines giving up recency at the time – tough to hold the two turns alone accountable for the result.

In terms of the K. McPeek pair, #1 HARVEST N’HEARTH makes the most sense on paper with the higher figures though has left ground in each race albeit a higher MSW level; while #4 TYLER’S TURN lighter on figures from the debut, showed run in a less than ideal trip from start to finish and the race they exit back on 2/20 has been very productive and could easily carry to move forward in just a second career start. 

#3 LADY DREAMER finds some class relief returning from the freshening and races this season. She has shown run in spots with the layoff return in November at DED a solid place finish X_FLOW and X_FLOW on the other side of the race dynamic back on 1/18. She has tactical speed as well as form under similar conditions over this course from last Spring, the place finish in March a similar par and purse to today’s event.

#4 SELF ISOLATION gives up recency showing up first off the 251-day layoff though will look to counter with early speed and intent in this case with main rider, Santana aboard while finding this spot where they can run for a higher $60k purse and protected at the same time.

#8 DANCE MY WAY sits on the softer side number wise though part of that at least in terms of the races this season, running at the higher N1 allowance condition, over her head against the level of competition. She will look to carry some of that form and coming off a subtle trip earlier this month, showing run in spots on 3/8 to suggest she is in form and while a top effort required could be the time and place – and right number as she is sure to be dismissed off the recent running lines and finishing positions. 

Very tough to dismiss the connections of the entry #1 CAJUN EDDIE and #1A DYNAMIC SUN though runners outside of the live barn lack any strong edge.

#6 SUNRISE DRIVE brings in current form along with the class drop for this third start off the layoff. They were competitive off the bench as well as the race last month finishing out with a strong GALLOP+ after the wire. The conditioning and class changes along with the race shape should assist in this spot and for the 9f distance.

#5 MR. THUNDERSTRUCK could be a little sneaky in here while his current form this season has not been as strong as seasons past and perhaps some of that lacking a break in racing since February. With that said, he has been given some time coming back today with 32-days between starts a work on 3/8 and the connections picking this spot as they had considered running in an open $10k claiming race on 3/15.

#8 GRANADA FLAVOR makes a belated return and upside back under similar conditions from the 1/23 start. That day was a tricky day with the unique track profile, many struggled with their footing out of the gate on the day and GRANADA FLAVOR being one stumbling out then racing against the course profile with kickback and tough to make up ground. Those factors could have played a role in the two month break since and comes back in a spot with what should be an honest early pace to set up their off the pace run.

#3 LUCKY BOSS has shown run in spots this season and could see the time and place they step up and return to a peak effort. The races starting off the season and off the layoff looked required for fitness and for class relief. They had a favorable trip with improvement on 2/8 and wheeling back on 2/28 upgrade making a strong MOVE X_FLOW and suggest some fitness here. Distance wise this 9f could be a stretch and while there are positives today price compensation is necessary. 

#10 CHUN MONEY Projected to move up second off earlier this month and while they did, they also showed weakness compared to their rivals on the day and off the effort takes this class drop. The move is not as concenter with Esquivel back aboard and wheeling back in 3 weeks suggesting they are still fit just looking for the right level to win even if it means a claim at this later portion of the season.

They will meet a common rival in #3 SKELLY ROAD taking a similar path into this race and while favored in that 3/7 event, was not a strong favorite in that role for that race as the public was leaning on the connections and outcome from the races closing out 2024, races at a lower par than what they caught on return three weeks ago and even here still requires a top effort no strong edge in class.

As far as class the edge sits with #9 GUADALAJARA coming back from a very long extended layoff into this race. While there are the clear concerns with that bringing them back off this type of break and change in class suggests the type that must come out race ready and at the time of this analysis the barn looking for that first meet win could be the one to get them there.

#11 CAT STORM ran a “winning” race for the level back on 2/15 to finish as part of the top four together at the wire. With that said, and noted legitimate TROUBLE+ in running still did have the race flow in their favor and perhaps more impactful coming into this race catching a lower par on that day than what is assigned here.  #2 PHENOMENAL DREAM is a confirmed closer and will come running late, the longtime maiden has plenty of efforts that could secure the win here though overall record  and running style requires the right price and racing luck.

Moquett has the pair of FTS and both usable in this spot as a new face. The duo of #7 PULASKI and #5 SPINTHEKAT together from the gate on 3/2 with 4yo SPINTHEKAT the unofficial winner of the drill, though PULASKI inside did not appear asked for their best just enough for gate practice and off the visuals it makes it tougher to give a true heads up comparison off just that one move. 

#9 STELLAR VINO finds a subtle change in class from the races this season and under a pair where they have been competitive throughout to move up in this spot. This marks the third start off the layoff X_FLOW upgrade off the bench at a higher par in Jan and subtle flow upgrade given the rail draw earlier this month and race result with the pacesetting winner and place from off the pace – the top two together and clear at the wire.

#4 PHREDDIE MAC comes back with a slight freshening and to the level where they were competitive and claimed out of back in January. That B/BTL effort making a run from off the pace with a solid early pace and should have an honest pace here given the complexion of this field, many front running type and horses with some distance limitations, PHREDDIE MAC no issues in that category.

#2 GATLINBURG is the wild-card in here. They have form and class that fits at this level on their best day and two Oaklawn starts both off the board finishes though noted MSW company at the time and speed figure wise recorded numbers in both that fit on par. The connections have been looking to bring them back this season with the series of works extending back to December and while it would have been more encouraging to see a race sooner than the 125 days they return from here this spot allows them to race protected – not in for the claiming tag given the prior placement and layoff. 

#4 IN JUST MY HEELS showed ability last season though has really turned a corner with the improvement with racing and maturity in this current form cycle. She has been ultra-consistent with the races since the November IND win and improving figures at OP this season. That including the Trivista effort, a race compromised by both running X_BIAS, X_FLOW while coupled with ground loss/WIDE, in running TROUBLE still making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+.

#2 PEIGNOIR raced forward with the show finish in the Trivista though overall form cycle and timing into that race had other reservations on the day. The connections pointed to run in the Wayward Lass starting off the year at TAM – a BTL effort on the day some potential regression last month for the second start of the form cycle and should rebound to another peak effort today. She hold the class edge over stablemate, #1 BEST SELLER – one that has shown improvement this year albeit some favorable trips after an excuse last June and tough to fault the connections taking a swing here.

Will also note the class rise with #3 MISS HEBRIDES another that has to her credit been solid throughout her career though at the same time benefit form favorable trips - off the recent outcomes and finishing positions could be an underlay when accounting for the class rise.

#5 TRIPOLINA has the class on her side for this level with her biggest test one again the 8.5f distance. She is probably most effective at ONE_TURN though at the same time has found a tougher time with the 6f distance playing a role the outcome a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ in both the 12/22 and 2/24 allowance races. 

#9 CAN’T STOP WILLIS is one of the few 4yo in the field and brings in form from their sophomore season and races this season. This marks the third start, second off pattern and perhaps a front wrap removal while given an upgrade from the WIDE trip against the dynamic and course profile returning from the 3/7 common race – a should hold perhaps the longest odds of the group returning from that event with place finishing flow-aided#10 LEBOMBO and the Asmussen pair #3 LAMBO and #6 AMBITION – LAMBO also one paced late though to their credit stayed on as the BOS through a Fast early and late pace.  

#1 SUPER CRUISE has some hurdles giving up recency and the rail draw while asked for the two turn distance first out. With that said, this horse has some run and physically should have no issues with the route distance based on their frame and on those visuals also appears to have surface versatility. They come into this race with a long series of works and very fit for this race and despite the challenges could still project an honest effort here. Similar could be projected though at the same time shorter odds with the B. Cox trained #7 MONEY GAME capable connections in this category and some intent for this type of race noting a scratch under similar conditions from 3/8.

#8 ALPHA OMEGA could also get a lot of attention for the connections along with the December place finish, a common race with AMBITION – ALPHA OMEGA in that place finish granted at the longer distance they were all out to the wire at a time the barn was sending out live/HOT runners and this now 5yo has the pattern of layoff lines separating each race to date, a fundamental reservation and first start on the dirt as well. 

#4 MASQUEPARADE won this race last year and could come back to repeat with form in this second start of the cycle. Value is still key with this runner overall as the type that does need things in their favor – had that trip last year as well as the longer 19-1 odds to make the longshot case on the day. #9 RED RUN also from this event last year, short on the outcome and on the board at 7-2 though a solid effort given the outside post and forced to contest the pace and could be overlooked this time back around while still holding their form and every other form cycle pattern.

#3 TIME FOR TROUBLE has a solid combination of class and stamina and while a little more could have been expected overall in the General MacArthur they might have needed the race and a useful PREP coming back here with upside from the trip. It is encouraging with Bejarano back aboard, a rider that was up for the dominant allowance win over this course last January and game 2024 Essex (G3) show finish.

#1 DAI VERNON also a proven distance horses and with form this season along with local experience keying off the 12/13 trip – an effort they projected to IMPROVE on and did just that with the January place finish and could be intent given time and freshening returning in this spot with the distance and stakes level. 

#5 LITTLE RAG DOLL could present some upside in this second career start as she had some gaps in the published works leading up to the 2/28 debut and since that race has worked twice this month. She will also pick up a rider change to Vazquez, a rider going back to prior seasons has had success for this barn and on this circuit with a positive ROI – most notable runner the multiple graded stakes winner Mr. Wireless.

#4 POPS REWARD finds some class relief along with the addition of Lasix returning in this spot as well as rider change looking for some intent and improvement all around. While she must improve once again she exits not only the higher level statebred maiden events but also races that have been productive.

#2 ZANZORA a bigger longshot in this spot though another with the change in class racing first time at the statebred level and coming back second off the layoff with the change in class and rider could be the time and place for them to show a top effort – still a stab though longer odds to mention if wanting that chaos inclusion in the finale.

#11 SUNDAE SPRINKLES comes back down to the level where they debuted on 2/28 and noted public support that day while a less than ideal start that did not allow for them to show the early speed they wanted to first out and showed that intent and tactical speed wheeling right back two weeks late at this higher MCL class staying on as the BOS and a repeat effort could make them the horse at the very least to catch on the front end.

#6 TEXAS SEQUOIA returns to MCL company and the sprint distance, conditions where they have been competitive and could be the case the catch the right group time and place. With that said, their overall record (along with #3 HONDURAS PASSION and #7 MELANIE T) can be tougher to trust on the win end, while capable all the same. In terms of MELANIE T she is at the right class level to compete, turned in a competitive place finish over an off track last season, the 4/28 race though perhaps more effective with the longer distance at least capable of showing tactical speed and has shown to be a closer sprinting.