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Fri April 11th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Keeneland Race 1
Post Time 12:00 PM CST
#1 TWIRLING ROSES shows up here where the connections E. Rodriguez/M. Murrill are live as can be at Hawthorne and could have found a spot there though make the KY trip to show intent. This gelding fits the race shape (Plot) and condition, along with form cycle on the upswing of their current "every other" pattern.
#5 LUCKY SHOT was much longer than today's projected odds showing up under similar conditions running a big race (B) in the place finish. Even with a post shift they could find a similar tracking trip with the projected early speed in this field.
Keeneland Race 4
Post Time 1:36 PM CST
#5 PAT'SCHROMECOMPASS has a live longshot look to consider. The races back in August (2023) fit with today's race par on figures and class. That is consistent with the form for this barn since returning from the layoff last October and now second off from the 3/13 WIDE MOVE B- effort.
#3 MUSTANG LADY fits this race shape, speed figures and class with a positive distance change to ONE_TURN. Value still required on the win end with the overall race record, though could drift from the 7-2 ML in this full field where.
Keeneland Race 6
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
#3 MINK STOLE (legendary actress let it be known) drops back into MCL company where she was most competitive during the fall to move up with today's race and that class change. She brings in current form and figures on par as well as preference for the extended sprint distance.
Keeneland Race 10
Post Time 4:48 PM CST
#2 HELM PLACE can be given a slight upgrade with the outside post and race shape with the winner (and next out stakes winner, Final Gambit) winning from off the pace. Common rival from the 2/15 debut, #11 TASK FORCE appears well intended (likely shorter than the assigned ML) for this spot noting they were entered under similar conditions and 9f distance on 4/6 (Sloppy) with Prat named landing here for a second start.
#5 IMPERIAL RULER should be overlooked from the group of sophomore second time starters and with upside from their debut last November. They debuted as the only FTS in the field, late in the meet and perhaps not as "race ready" though given a race all the same. That race with a higher par and time since could see improvement and placement a much lower par than the debut. As far as the recorded speed figure it is not far off others in this field to project a move forward to get on the level.
#4 DIVER (cross entered on Sat) projected to move up with the DROP which they did their return MCL races this season at TP. The other projection EQUIP/blinkers will be added return and the change to move up in this third start off the layoff.