Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 DIVER projected to move up with the DROP which they did their return MCL races this season at TP. The other projection EQUIP/blinkers will be added return and the change to move up in this third start off the layoff. 

#2 CITIZEN recorded their career high speed figure over this KEE course and distance back in October 2023. Yes, that was some time ago, though coming into this race has the start this year on the turf to step up from and monitor visually as they were heavy washed out (WARM) on the day to look for more composed visuals here. 

Trainer J. Ortiz has sent out live runners this meet and could come with another in #10 GAMBLER'S TAIL. This marks their second start off the layoff and route-to-sprint pattern that while was not in their barn at the time though improved with a similar move in the 10/10 place finish effort. As far as the return on 3/7 at OP they should benefit from the race breaking SLOG and despite the running line and finishing position put in a strong CLOSE. 

ML favorite #3 SPEAK EASY is capable here, however will be tested to win and run a top while not coming off a layoff (or debut) as that has been the pattern for their better races to date. #4 DISCREET MISCHIEF could be co-favored and another that is capable with a level of consistency though their consistency does not hold an edge over their rivals top efforts. #6 WICO is perhaps the weakest of those three should they run on the 5day turnaround. 

If WICO does not run that could assist the trips for #2 DEER DISTRICT one that brings in buried and KEE form; #5 HARRODSBURG has some class weakness though tactical speed to have that advantage in this field. 

Reason to play against #1 VALIANT HUMOR as the projected favorite carried by the BIAS (track profile inside favoring) on debut. Their overall visuals to suggest class weakness/DROP and today's par is slightly higher while the purse is double. 

LEXINGTON STAKES (G3) 

This is one of the more competitive grades stakes fields on the road to the Derby even though it should not impact that scene. There are multiple runners with ability and improving types to follow the rest of the season - this race being the spot to dictate where these horses land going forward. 

#2 BRACKET BUSTER showed ability with a BTL on debut and TROUBLE in their second start with things coming to fruition with the 10/9 maiden win over this course and distance. The connections showed confidence off that win to run in the Street Sense (G3) just 18-days later and ultimately closed out their juvenile campaign. The connections again show confidence scratching from an allowance earlier this week to run in this graded stakes event. Number wise the showed improvement with racing and can project improvement from the juvenile season to jump up and compete with this group. Something that would not be a surprise, BRACKET BUSTER is training strongly into this race working locally at KEE and form over this course. 

This is a good time for #8 HYPNUS to show their best and where they fit in this division. There is no rush to the Derby and this still lightly raced type can build off the foundation and class from those contentious graded stakes events, arguably a hidden class edge. 

The lone graded stakes winner, #3 BULLARD will have their belated graded stakes route test  scratched from the Rebel (G2) not quite race ready at the time and has trained forward since.