Handicapper Tips & Picks

#3 IDIOSYNCRASIES is logical as the favorite. They have consistently recorded the highest speed figures in this field and bring in tactical speed (to keep 8yo #2 ULTIMATE FIGHTER honest) with the ability to finish and pass horses something key for today’s race shape and shorter sprint distance. The pair of Morey runners came up short on the Thursday card, though a different pattern for that pair both returning from layoffs whereas #5 DYNO WAR brings in recency from Turfway Park keying off the $5k MCL level efforts for them. IDIOSYNCRASIES was much more competitive earning a B OptixGRADE on 2/12 compared to the C/ C+ OptixGRADES at the level for DYNO WAR coming into this race and lacking an edge off those races compared to the others in this field.

Sophomore #6 GONNA PICK DOMINIC brings in similar figures though not always as consistent. They should benefit returning to the one turn distance and change in class, likely bigger factors than the surface switch to dirt last month at Oaklawn. Prior to that, they held a class edge and competitive efforts at GP with a STRONG race for the level back in January and TROUBLE trip in February.

Fellow sophomore, #1 RUMBLING also brings in a subtle change in class showing up for a sophomore debut and grow up potential from the sophomore season. In the debut and the Futurity, they were often second tier to a stablemate and stands alone as the lone M. Boyce runner, the first starter for the barn this season.

Looking at the Plot, #4 GRAY MIKE as a Q4 Square has the potential to pick up horses late if consider vertical play. 

#3 CLASSIC TIRAMISU could sneak away on the board while holding upside and sneaky form into this race. She put in a strong CLOSE (after a SLOG) in the juvenile debut, the 12/26 race with some public support (8-1 ML, bet 5.87-1) in a full field. Following that effort the connections stepped up caught a next out and future graded stakes winner, Verity (Beaumont – G2) and visually CLASSIC TIRAMISU suggested STRETCH off those visuals as well as DROP while racing in the snow/WEATHER on 1/23. The following two starts might not look like much “on paper” though given a X_FLOW upgrade in both and in different ways from off the pace in February and part of a Fast early pace last month.

#5 CODE OF CONDUCT is the lone 4yo filly in the field and could present the maturity edge along with experience from a game B OptixGRADE debut effort last month. The race at FON, a sprint a $10k purse suggesting a slight step up with the stretch out here though confidence with the change after the debut run and in strong hands with O. Mojica aboard – a rare assignment for the barn with just three starts together all in 2023.

#2 REIMAGINE has the benefit of local Hawthorne experience going back to the races starting out last year as a juvenile. She moved forward race-to-race and at the time suggested STRETCH from the sprints and while in tougher at the FG did move up with the added ground, racing and age to transfer here.

The circuit and class change could be taken closer to a lateral move for #6 HEVEL coming out of the 3/28 $50k MCL TP event behind a dominant open length pacesetting winner and if the case still requires a move forward and could get attention from the public of basic handicapping angles.

#4 CHEVAL B also making a belated Hawthorne return starting out her career late in the season, the 9/4 turf sprint. She has exclusively raced on the turf, scratched when the races came off the grass back in January, though figure with the circuit switch to give a try on the main while if nothing else to keep fitness into the turf season starting up in a few weeks. Their stablemate, #1 GOUVERNATRICE has the main track experience from their December FG debut, a race scheduled for TURF and physically suited to grass. She might not have the same class to transfer as their stablemate and faster numbers required to compete though the 3/30 effort in light rain was credible making a strong CLOSE and GALLOP+ after a SLOG at the shorter 5.5f distance. 

#6 RAGNOW holds the highest recorded figure on the dirt at the route distance doing back to the 12/19 race – a race just their second career start and still a juvenile to suggest they can repeat that effort. This should be as good a time to do so not in the second start off the claim and on this circuit stretching out from a WIDE trip at the shorter than their ideal going the 5f opening weekend.

They will meet some common rivals from the 3/27 MCL event where #2 BERKUS was favored likely on connections alone with the change in surface/distance, not quite handing the dirt or the shorter in running and while there are concerns back on the dirt paired with the inside draw the added ground is to their benefit. #5 WESTEROS has recorded figures that make them a main player from back in California, however, they have struggled since and no real excuses along the way where a massive turnaround is required and could be short for the connections and the public latching to the rider change as J. Loveberry moves from BERKUS to WESTEROS.

#4 MY LAST ESCAPADE from the 3/27 common race should also move forward with the added ground and second off with more competitive races at this similar MCL level, surface and distance from last season. With that said they also require a new top speed figure to match on the win end as a contender – and similar can be said for #3 BLACK RUSSIAN lighter on figures as a top contender.

Both #1 STORM BACK and #7 HOLDEN MICHAEL bring some upside into this race and exiting a common race back on 12/19 at TP. That race has held form and noted extreme SPACED race shape on the day. HOLDEN MICHAEL being one of the runners to move forward with a new top speed figure recorded on 2/14 and could see similar step up from STORM BACK one that was chasing the Very Fast early pace before losing ground and NO_PUSH late. 

The early pace here looks to be highly contentious early with those main players bookending the field as #1 CRYSTAL SNOW and #7 ANNIE’S HOPE are at their best on the lead and drawn where they can be forced to take that trip. #5 MISS SAIPAN also up in that first flight with legitimate early speed in her own right coming off the layoff and first start as a 4yo and at this $5k N2 level.

In that scenario, the race could fall apart late and set up for a horse from off-the-pace and not necessarily the “best” horse in the field but the right setup. #6 FOREVER BLESSED closed ground to break their maiden at the 5.5f distance at HS Indy and made up ground in the two sprints last year at Hawthorne tougher to see with the finishing positions though also un those races catching a much higher race par than today’s event. #4 SEQUAYA also can pop and find the right trip with speed figures from the prior Hawthorne seasons on par. She is a 9yo and needs that top coming off the layoff though perhaps getting in light with the barn change and setup trip is the belated key for her.

Both #2 BABA’S GAL and #3 THE LAST THRILL are lighter number wise though in that pace scenario outlined are not without an upset chance in playing for chaos. 

The race shape coded with the Sun Contention and higher 72 SpeedRate (OptixPLOT free every Hawthorne race day) suggests a set up from off the pace. That is still recognizing and respecting the Large Q1 Square for #3 GITA’S LAD one that still has the chance to take this field gate-to-wire though tougher form those trying to run with them early – likely #1 U S HONOUR NAP, #2 WHERE’S THE DAY GO and #4 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR to get caught in the mosh of the early pace.

From off the pace #6 FLYING SAMURAI can be upgraded on trip and in this second start off the layoff with the positive STRETCH out and PREP from the 4/3 race where she should be fit with a strong GALLOP+ and take off some of the winter coat (PRERACE-) as noted on the day.

#7 LAND MARK DEAL has often dealt with bad racing luck and no exception on 3/30 with a legitimate EX – EXCUSE less than ideal TACTIC- and TROUBLE impacting their trip – a rider change was projected and given with F. Reyes taking over here, a rider that paired up place finishes back in December at MNR.

#5 PLAIN OR PEANUT falls into that middle category on trip as they an show early speed perhaps their ideal trip though also effective from off the pace. For that to play out today effectively a lot of the decisions come down to jockey A. Bendezu and to factor on value for the horseplayer. 

While #4 MY LADY SLEW made a lot of sense opening week with their early speed, the race shape and the 5f distance, things change here in terms of race shape (downgrade) and value (none) returning as the expected favorite here and willing to take on with those factors in play today. Similar value concerns could follow #6 A REAL HERO with the 5.5f distance as she might prefer 6f though capable and can get there based on the Plot.

From that same Plot position and shape to upgrade both #2 AWESOME SUNDAY and #3 HEAVENLY HASH – horses that are further upgraded making their second start of the season and from the 3/27 common race. AWESOME SUNDAY should move up with the WIDE CLOSE trip and positive albeit slight STRETCH in distance; HEAVENLY HASH likely further under the radar with the finishing position though showed run in spots to earn a C+ OptixGRADE and overall PREP visuals.

As noted the contested early pace for MY LADY SLEW makes things also tougher on the win end as far as pace and trip for #5 DIXIE PENNY and #7 SMILE AT THE STORM those runners Q1/3 Circles. #1 JOLIE RULER is a tougher Plot read for today’s race shape overall and added factors coming off the layoff giving up recency to the others while also given the rail draw, something that could force to use early as that has been in play other times she has drawn the rail. 

Current class and speed figures present the edge #1 BATTLEOFLEXINGTON and #5 RUNWAY CHARLIE in those categories for this race. Looking at the Plot they can work out a trip though no handouts there as they look to contend with each other as well as chase projected pacesetter #5 RUNNINGFORCASH.

If there is a scenario where BATTLEOFLEXINGTON and RUNAWAY CHARLIE are beat, it could be on pace as part of the Fire Contention (moderate SpeedRate) and race shape to assist runners from off the pace.

The Large Q4 Square #2 ONORE could pick up horses and cand while lighter on speed figures, not be much in this group and brings in recency. They wheel back from a very game B effort three weeks ago in the MVR allowance - after losing their footing out of the gate (TROUBLE_S) and rider TACTIC- made TWO_MOVES up into TRAFFIC early and late closing ground on first run winner, those top two together and clear at the wire.

Trainer J. Berndt has the pair in this race where both could ultimately benefit from a start returning from a layoff though not far out of it on their best day. #6 CAUGHT OFF GUARD has been most effective over the grass though also when showing early speed and could get into that Fire Contention. #7 COMMISIONER OSCAR might be a little sneaky with dirt form while class is still a test. They will be tested to step up on the speed figures department though not out of the question returning as a four-year-old some upside from the juvenile and sophomore figures with grow up potential and maturity. 

The Plot is notable here with this field, a unique race shape with the Snowflake Contention (lighter Q1, not many E or EP types) paired with the higher SpeedRate. That scenario took my analysis to look through the past performance and Plot History for the runners in this field to find horses that have experience under today’s potential dynamic.

#10 GOLDEN STORM can be upgraded with today’s race shape, class relief from TP given a lower par here and following a favorable form cycle pattern. She is given a further Flow-upgrade making a WIDE RUSH into a Fast early pace on 3/5 playing a role in the outcome. She also holds sneaky form at Hawthorne from last season; the 4/13 race earned a figure on par while finishing off the board had the rail draw and in a higher level/purse N1 allowance group.

#5 PASTA SALAD RHONDA has been competitive and won under this Snowflake/SpeedRate combo however those more competitive efforts when on the turf. Certainly capable here though assigned favorite and some value concerns in that role when it comes to the win end.

#9 WILD TAPIT has competitive races with this dynamic and those races with speed figures on par. She finds a rider change and subtle change in class with the race par coming back from opening weekend when also uncharacteristically WARM and despite the running line did her best running after the wire with a strong GALLOP+ out.

Longshot #7 JOCELYN broke her maiden under today’s dynamic over this course and distance. Number wise that figure not as strong as others and on the lower end of par, though not impossible and holds fitness second off in what appeared to be a PREP two weeks ago. She might not appears as “strong” on the Plot in comparison to #4 HOT DAME the Q1 Square, though noted race shape and lack of recency while also returning from the layoff for a claiming tag – factors that play a role in the shape/position.