Handicapper Tips & Picks

The pace of this race should impact the results as many return in this spot perhaps with their less than ideal  surface with giving up recency in the case of many. In terms of the early pace, #3 CAT ATTACK should be out in front from the jump, upgraded with the change in circuit/class (DROP)and from the 2/21 trip racing with a WIDE RUSH X_BIAS. With her game best on the lead she should take that approach and if allowed to clear is a main threat though if as projected on the Plot, pace pressure from #2 ARDIS even #5 UNION DOLLY capable to running closer to the pace with the outside post and distance change she could find hurdles.

#4 IZZY’S MONSTER could land the ideal trip in that case coming back from the layoff though back on the Hawthorne main track where she has been effective and under a similar par/purse where she has been competitive as well.

In terms of class and circuit switch, #1 JUNGLE CAT fits all around. They can be further upgraded from the trip back on 3/8 with subtle SAVED TROUBLE- and two of the three runners that came back won their next start. With the noted trip last out and the inside here, that could come into play one that has yet to run on the dirt in their career and mildly protected today for $25k could have the change to show they can run on the dirt or a good race while waiting for a turf race in the coming weeks. 

Of the recent maiden winners, #3 VIA DEL CORSO is preferred to #6 MISSISSIPPI MAN overall and perhaps slightly higher of the two at post time. VIA DEL CORSO has the benefit of local experience, a work to keep up conditioning between races and still on three weeks from the debut to suggest they came out of the race well and even could hold a move forward. They showed versatility with the trip while racing in the rain. MISSISSIPPI MAN was dominant (B+) however flow aided with the Very Slow early and late pace while assisting their CLOSE/finish on the day. The race shape lacked a change in running order and today’s class par/purse is a rise.

In terms of the two M. Boyce runners as both #4 TAKEITAWAY and #5 JOURNEY showed run last year and returning from the layoff with similar works to prepare for this race. TAKEITAWAY given the edge just assessing the Futurity effort closing out 2024 though coming back today and preparation for the first start of the year would not be “against” either.

Number wise the two Boyce IL-bred runners were recording speed figures in their juvenile series not far off or and in line with the two sophomores #1 GOOD TO BE PRINCE and #2 CARAMBASO returning here and from the 4/3 common race, a day with a stretch headwind both with TROUBLE_S and the dominant winner, Spinning Pride from mid-pack to win by open lengths. 

#6 WE MISS ARLINGTON sneaks in as a three time winner with one of the those wins last year, the dominant (B+) $5k N2L not counting towards today’s eligibility. That provides a slight edge as does class finding class relief from a higher par OC event on 4/7 with a trip to upgrade as they return here. They had TROUBLE_S stumbling a few  strides out of the gate making mild contact (TROUBLE-) with a rival in the process of recovery and from there made a MOVE a strong GALLOP+ and overall intent might not have been to them with stablemate winner, Supremely, fancied of the two on the day. That is where first call rider, M. Murrill landed and notable taking over here on WE MISS ARLINGTON.

O. Hernandez lands with the other E. Rodriguez runner, #5 GENERAL ISSUE one that returns under similar conditions from the 3/30 race. They showed run with subtle adversity (SHUFFLE, MOVE, WIDE) behind their former stablemate and today’s rival #3 ALL ABOUT TONITE, the front running LONE winner. GENERAL ISSUE presents upside and a move forward all around, though requires a top effort and trip once again at today’s perhaps shorter than their ideal 5.5f distance.

In terms of ALL ABOUT TONITE there is a scenario where they can get clear on the lead looking at the Standard Plot, however, looks to have company on Surface/Distance another upgrade for WE MISS ARLINGTON as a Q1 Square.

Keeping to the Plot, that position is key to get the jump on prime rivals  #1 ASYMMETRIC one that has above and beyond the back numbers and class that would make them a walkover in this group returning to those efforts where their current form also competitive, however not that massive edge; #2 CITY OF CLOUDS returning from a strong CLOSE in the 3/30 common race and should appreciate the slight addition of ground along with the race under their belt.

#7 EL MUCHO takes the step up in class and the right move coming off a win and overall a progressive type. While this is a rise in class, going back to their earlier days they were given a similar test both on class starting out their career in statebred stakes company and breaking their maiden at the 5.5f distance at Hawthorne in MSW company and holding their own against a tough CD group in the sophomore season. The race that keyed off the 4/3 selection was the BTL effort going back to March 2024 at the $25k N2 level. 

#3 SOUL COAXING is back at Hawthorne and where he fits from prior seasons. The connections return from the layoff though not back with a drop, still running for the higher $25k claiming tag where they have been competitive over the previous season. Their runstyle along with D. Cohen fits today’s shape and drawn well to work that trip with first run. The two inside runners with  #1 MORE THAN DESTINY stretching out and #2 LAVENDER EARL following a NO_PUSH on 4/3 returning from the layoff that day should return to their front running ways; and that pair joined by #6 CONI’S COUP coming off the layoff and with natural early speed their recent wins when given LONE trips.

The trip and runstyle for SOUL COAXING is similar to the preferred run of #4 READTHECLIFFNOTES and #5 CATEGORY TEN though upgraded in the timing of this race and with the draw. The timing and post could force CATEGORY TEN to run with the first flight a scenario that does not impact the trip for SOUL COAXING and would further assist that of READTHECLIFFNOTES (Standard and Surface/Distance Square) to compete. The Plot position and shape is notable for #7 GLOBAL EMPIRE – a position that could be tougher to win with though one that could be key for a share and to include in the vertical play. 

Both of the C. Block runners can be upgraded in this spot: #2 MONDOGETSBUCKETS held strong figures from the sophomore season against a higher par/purse at CD that presented a class/figure edge over the group of experience runners three weeks ago and ran a “winning/B” race noting a compromised TROUBLES+/SLOG making an early WIDE MOVE and picked up by a well-prepared Via Del Corso (running earlier on the card) on debut for L. Rivelli.

#3 TAUNTING presents upside returning as a sophomore and from the two races last season catching a live pair of DiVito runners in Baby Boat on debut and seasoned Royal Bro on the turf and their stablemate Executor closing out 2024. The timing for TAUNTING also notable debuting later in the Hawthorne season and perhaps one that needed more time to develop and could hold that projection here as a sophomore and one that has been consistently training this year and off the two races to date suggesting they have more to show and yet to see their best.   

As far as the other 4yo runners in this field: the change in class can be taken as a lateral move for #4 MELLIFLUOUS showing up on this circuit from their recent MCL races though with that said, and lacking an edge on that front must find more on the win end though a minor not out of the question especially with the return to the one turn distance; #6 BRODY makes a belated return and overall consistent type that might prefer TURF (similar for #5 T C GOLD) though off the two KEE main track races last year those figure stack up with today par. They closed out the 2024 season here at Hawthorne on the turf, earning a B- OptixGRADE despite finishing of the board as they raced WIDE X_BIAS.  

With the first time starters #1 RODAVLAS appears well-prepared off the works; a consistent pattern with the timing and progression of distance showing a mix of speed and stamina. #8 STEELY EYE also with consistency in the 2025 pattern following some works last year. The return series topped with the two gate half mile moves, nothing further recorded in distance and while the barn is capable with FTS overall, here at Hawthorne a smaller sample of 13 with just one winner and one show the winner Fit and Famous a 3yo filly was favored (bet down from 6-1 ML) and something to follow on the board here.

#9 HIGH PROBABILITY is not a true FTS though could almost be taken as such with the belated second start, the barn change and from the debut where they made a mess of the break part of a chain reaction of contact (TROUBLES+) and forced a WIDE RUSH into the duel/FTQ.   

#5 CODE RUNNER has a chance to find the right trip and race shape to win with the higher 43 SpeedRate positioned on Standard as the lone runners not on the left of the y-axis or above the ParLine - a subtle off-the-pace, pace advantage. In addition to race shape/pace, they bring in current form for this second start off the layoff, upgraded from the 4/6 start earning a B- OptixGRADE making a MOVE through TRAFFIC and against the Very Slow early and late race dynamic to present a further upgrade here.

#4 CHAOS REIGNS moves up with the change in circuit, race par and even form, form that might appear “off” when looking at the running lines and finishing positions. That is not necessarily the case, a flow upgrade from each of the three Oaklawn starts (all contested on off-tracks) especially the two most recent starts as part of the Very Fast early pace. As shown on Surface/Distance they present an edge on that front to take the lead and their presence in this race making things tougher on the win end for #1 STRONGER TOGETHER, #2 NILES CHANNEL and even #6 CONTRABANDISTA and #7 JET FLIGHT.

#3 MCMONEY as a four-time winner fits this condition perfectly on timing and returning on this circuit where they fit as a contender. The placement from prior Hawthorne seasons had them played in allowance company (juvenile/sophomore) and last year in the higher claiming level. The combination of class and distance created hurdles on the win end, though kept in races moved to the main track they moved up with the change in race par and moves up with the change in race par from their races this year.  

#7 FAST N HAPPY a Square both on Standard and Surface/Distance and upgraded with the change in class (and rider) making their second start of the meet. They also follow and  “every other” pattern to cycle back to a top figure and effort. In terms of the trip two weeks ago while also running in a higher race par broke in a tangle (SLOG, TROUBLE_S) and chased WIDE all factors playing a role in outcome.

The “every other” pattern is noted for #1 HONOR HIS HALF one that has a strong Plot position though one that was on the upswing of the pattern three weeks ago and returns today with a higher par, something that could create vulnerabilities on the win end.

#5 QUEEN ANNA T could be upgraded from their Plot position for this race noting the recent trips and timing while returning on this circuit. She was able to find the right tracking trip off the layoff in February to clear the N2 condition though following that race given a legitimate EX – EXCUSE with the TACTIC- and in running TROUBLE ultimately NO_PUSH late; that playing a role in the Circle overall. As far as the race three weeks ago (3/30) she might have lost her race restless in the GATE breaking SLOG as a result and never appeared comfortable tracking SAVED behind horses with KICKBACK- impacting her race on the day. She moves just slightly outside in terms of post and back with J. Loveberry to improve on overall trip and outcome.  

#2 LITTLE SASS also could have some excuses built into her Plot position and shape given the trips from last year and placement overall all. She has been able to fire fresh and win for these connections, connections that have sent out live runners this meet – tough to dismiss that trend.

The race shape with the Sun Contention and honest 38 SpeedRate can assist runners from off the pace: #4 LUNARCHY has the edge in recency over the returning #3 FREEDOM ATTACK while looking at the Plot and the two in a similar position and runners that stack up with similar form and figures for today’s class level.