Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of #1 ARRIEVEDERCCI and #4 DISGUISED DEVIL returning from the 4/3 common race with some changes to make sense in here. The rider change could assertive ARRIVEDERCCI just in terms of changing things up from the pair of TROUBLES+/TROUBLE_S though the rail draw still a hurdle with that pattern; #4 DISGUISED DEVIL moving to an outer post with the experience and showing run on debut (SAVED CLOSE GALLOP+) brings upside though V. Esquivel has made tactical errors on live horses this season and cannot be ignored until proven otherwise.

That could open the race for the new faces: #5 KELLY’S GIRL recorded a solid figure with the juvenile debut. That number could present an threat as is, and even improved on with maturity, though despite taking on open, landed a lower purse though the steady, progressive local works are encouraging. #3 KISSES FOR WEEJ returns from a longer layoff (558-days) and some gaps in works that create some reservations.

Trainer C. Block does many things in horses debuting older runners as in the case of 4yo filly #2 TRINITY’S PRIZE is a smaller sample. Though like many things in this game within that six horse sample, 1 win, 1 place and 1 show and just looking at the IL record (Haw/AP) those runners (4 total) in that IL sample. 

As individuals, a case can be made for all, while looking at the Plot, the race as a whole, a pace makes the race or in this case makes the separation. OptixPLOT suggests a contentious early pace with the Fire rating paired with the honest 34 SpeedRate. This can be seen visually with four of the six runners bunched together in Q1 and above the ParLine – this scenario can assist runners from off the pace and upgrade both of the Q4 Squares, #4 COALMINER’S KITTEN and #1 MYSTIC POWER.

COALMINER’S KITTEN returns from the 4/3 common race won by #6 SUPREMELY at the 5f distance, the added furlong along with the race back from the layoff should assist COALMINER’S KITTEN and looking at the OptixNOTES from the Past 3 Runlines, both runners recording the B OptixGRADE that day.

MYSTIC POWER showed GRIT with the win last August at FAN/FP – a race with a similar $16k purse and 6f distance. They showed improvement closing out the year while picking up another win in October. They return to give up recency from the 173-days away, though based on the ML/public projection the price compensation should be there to support along with the other positive handicapping factors. 

Moving on from R2, looking at the Plot a similar race shape is projected with the Fire Contention and even slightly higher 50 SpeedRate.

#1 FINDAWAY should have the edge of the Q1/front running types when looking at Standard (current form) they present strong finishing ability (Square) compared to the other Q1 rivals. Things change slightly where an upgrade can be given to #5 I’M YOUR CAPTAIN moving to a Q1 Square, that change in Plot position/shape. That change can be further supported by the current form cycle, improving OptixGRADES and most recent Projection with the DROP – today with a lower par than the 4/17 (showed run in spots to move up) race one week ago.

Going back to the overall race shape, those two could find each other as a hurdle late and in that scenario move up the runners from off the pace. #4 ANCIENT MAN the strong Q1 Square finding a similar “every other” form cycle pattern and one that arguably would prefer 6f, today’s 5.5f distance might be the better option out of the races so far this season.

#2 CHAMPAGNE MIKE is an in-between type when looking at the Plot as well as the other pieces of the puzzle.  They projected to show more early speed last week, the 4/17 race. The WEATHER conditions noted with the rain and wind and the intention could come back into play here with the timing, blinker addition and rider change. 

The Plot in this case with the RedPlot Fit suggests the lack of any advantage or disadvantage in this race shape. Where pace took center stage in handicapping process for the earlier races, in this case other handicapping factors like class, speed and form can be upgraded. Looking at the Past 3 Runlines each horse had the “green or light green” coded speed figures to suggest they are “fast” enough to win this race with speed figures on par, again no strong standout or separation in that category.

When it comes to class, #2 VALIANT WEST checks that box and upgraded from their races last season recording consistently some of the higher figures in the field and competitive despite lacking the win - those races in a higher par, purse and allowance condition. They also have historically shown progression with racing bringing back that pattern to Hawthorne with the improving races this season and throughout March at FON.

#6 T LAW fits on that class front while lacking recency (current form) returning from the 200-day layoff. They have run off a layoff in the past going back to last season, recording one of their highest numbers of the season in a 6f sprint making a strong CLOSE and competitive B- OptixGRADE for the $25k N2 level, something to upgrade the outcome, the 4^th place finishing position. They lacked the win during 2024 though again looking more at effort than outcome, they recorded a B (winning effort for the level) OptixGRADE under similar $25k N2 conditions with a higher par in June and overall lacking any “red” when at this level throughout the year and consistent figures that fit on par. 

#1 MANAGING MISCHIEF while on a quick turnaround should not take much out of them on 4/19 at Oaklawn Park given the timing from a 47-day break, class condition and trip behind horses taking KICKBACK all factors playing a role in outcome and could be assessed more as a “workout” all things considered. Class being another factor, throughout the Oaklawn meet showed class weakness in the allowance races and move up with the change in class, par and purse with the 3/3 WRD win, conditions all around similar to today and not a win off type effort they can look to repeat here. Trip should be positive for them looking at the Plot, a Fire Contention though lower 13 SpeedRate to track #2 FRANKEL BABY and #4 BEEHIVE with MANAGING MISSION in position for first run on the Q2/Q4 runners.

#3 SALLY’S SURPRISE also finds a quick turnaround coming back from the 4/16 KEE race, a race with a similar par to today’s event and showed a ton on run, a winning/B effort putting in a strong CLOSE after the SLOG (something of a pattern for them) and recording close to a new figure top in the progress. That could be a challenge to repeat on shorter rest and should be noted and compared in this case as the quick turnaround should be taken in context.

In terms of BEEHIVE she fits off overall form, class, figures for this race. Going back to last year that consistency makes her a player though also showed with racing, speed figure improvement, something to suggest they could benefit from the race starting off the season and their best is yet to come. Stablemate #6 DEVIL has ability in their own right though last season was not quite on the speed figure level of BEEHIVE and another that could ultimately find the race a good starting point on conditioning for the season. 

#7 ROMANAYA has a stronger legitimate favorite look (ML second choice when compared to rival #5 CHEVAL B (weak favorite) one that came up short with a PERFECT trip on 4/13 and not a one-off as they also had a PERFECT trip back on 3/9 at the FG. In terms of ROMANAYA, she projected to move up with the STRETCH (and PREP) from the debut back in November and now finds this distance change as a positive. Current form also is progressive and a positive, despite the 3/22 running line and finishing position, she earned a C+ OptixGRADE. While WARM on the day, showed run making a COVER SAVED MOVE and improved speed figures with the higher par in that TP race last month.

 #3 UNKEPT PROMISES has another longshot look coming back for this third start. She might have not quite been race ready mentally and physically on debut very fractious in the GATE and showed some early interest before losing ground (FTQ) in a higher par event on 3/21 at TP. Upgraded off that race, she showed speed figure improvement for the second start despite TRAFFIC and subtle TROUBLE- while also putting in a strong GALLOP+ out to support another move forward along with the distance change.

Keeping with the TP theme, both ROMANAYA and UNKEPT PROMISES hold a class edge over the pair of David Miller fillies #1 COCALINA and #2 DRAMA SPEAKER; two fillies that bring individual upside though in terms of class lack the edge of the other two from the MSW compared to the MCL events,. The December MCL races bring in a similar par and purse to today’s race with the circuit switch. In that case being a lateral move, DRAMA SPEAKER turned in a more competitive race with the number and finishing position on 12/11 making a WIDE MOVE and CLOSE after the TROUBLE_S from the rail, though did have a Fast early pace to run at. She will stretch out today for the first time where the distance experience already siding with COCALINE one that could be given a slight X_FLOW upgrade from the 12/18 start.

This is a great spot for #1 ROCKET HOTSHOT to return to winning ways. They bring in current form from the racing this year and key class DROP exiting the higher conditioned event from 4/6 with plenty of fitness noting the WIDE trip. In terms of race par, they find a key change, a lower par for the first time in a longtime and change in race shape as well. The Sun Contention paired with the higher 58 SpeedRate, suits their runstyle for today’s race shape and historically has had success under similar dynamics. Looking at the Plot, ROCKET HOTSHOT should find pace to chase and first run on #2 DANVILLE with a similar position/shape while finding a lateral change in par coming off the 4/6 win, giving the class edge to ROCKET HOTSHOT in that comparison as well.

Those two with the race designation and contentious Q1 that includes #3 TWO COOKIE RULE, #4 WILDWOOD’S WARRIOR and #7 STINGY on the outside stretching out.

With ROCKET HOTSHOT as a prime contender on pace, class, speed and current form, they provide a strong value alternative to rival and ML favorite, #6 TEMPER TANTRUM one that brings in overall upside from the subtle trip last month at TP (3/12) however lacking an overall edge in today’s race shape looking at the Plot and on current form finding closer to a lateral move from the races this year and since coming back from the layoff last October.

Looking at the Plot, TEMPER TANTRUM lands a similar position and shape to #5 FLYING SAMURAI one that should hold longer odds and one that has required racing to find conditioning coming back this year and third start this month. Rather than record work after work, trainer C. Ryan has given them racing as they should continue to improve with the racing and from the X_FLOW last out (4/13) while given the sprint (4/3) as a PREP and STRETCH with the GALLOP+ noted on the day. 

While the SpeedRate is honest, the Sun Contention pairing should further assist #3 KIKI KRAZY in terms of pace to work out a trip as a Q4 Square. The present upside in their current form cycle supported by the Past 3 Runlines and key OptixGRADE progression (C, C+,B-) moving in a forward direction this year and specifically in this third off portion of the cycle and subtle STRETCH in distance. KIKI KRAZY is looking for their first win on the year and capable to land it today while finding the change in class.

#4 SAMARITA fits off prior form, class and speed figures and while she does not hold a strong pace advantage looking at the Plot, she is not compromised in today’s race shape to knock on that front. She will give up recency coming off the 112-day layoff, the time to recover was likely needed after a solid campaign and game season starting off with the April win at KEE and battling all through the spring and summer season, competitive races each and every time while noting a legitimate EX – EXCUSE from the 7/28 race.

Both #1 RACEDAY ATTIRE and #2 DIAMONDS JOY already securing that first win of the year and should hold their form no real knocks on that front though in terms of RACEDAY ATTIRE they find a massive step up in race par as a downgrade and DIAMONDS JOY off the PERFECT (red keyword) trip to win on 4/6.

A peak effort could be a race out for both #5 LONG TALL WOMAN and #6 LILY’S CREED returning off layoffs in this particular spot and race shape (Plot) while runners to follow this season. Similar for #7 HIGHWOOD (Q3 Circle) one that likely with the conditioning to use going forward while a bigger hurdle to win off the bench in this spot.