Handicapper Tips & Picks

P 4 Wheels On Fire 1 Trosa 2 Jack Panic

P 5 Mood Control 4 Bettorseetheshow 2 Asiago Seelster

T 1 The Green Book 10 Roxie Hart 4 Resolve Indeed

P 8 Sergeant Slaughter 10 Blue Hunt 6 Respect Our Flag

P 10 Sauble Wilson 1 Smokin Hot Dude 4 Jmr Speak Away

T 8 Fast Snap 1 Flanagan Sunshine 5 Modelo Gold

P 2 Funtime Bayama 1 Chain Gang 3 Century Komodo

P 3 Funny Business 5 Dear Abbey 1 Better In Heels

P 5 Write Me A Rose 2 Poseidon Seelster 1 Arbitrage Hanover

P 10 Blazing Cruiser 4 Four By Four 2 Trinidad

P 3 Livinthebeachlife 10 Pacino Hanover 8 Hungry Man

P 10 Batterup Hanover 3 Stone Carver 4 Wind Blown

#4 ENSORCELL carried upside from her first two starts with the stretch out in distance this season, however racing luck had a different plan noting back-to-back excuses from the 12/6 to 1/5 race, efforts with IMPROVE-ment noted and carried to the win on 2/17. She had to battle for the win showing GRIT to prevail and off that effort less than 30-days back to take on winners was not the ideal. The trip was not ideal either to upgrade making a RUSH X_FLOW with inside/SAVED TROUBLE playing a role in the (3/16) outcome on the day.

#5 KINZIE QUEEN holds competitive form at this level and from the races in March. Off those efforts the connections perhaps a little ambitious or just doing a favor entering in the Fantasy (G2) a race that had her compromised on class and timing with both of those changes a positive here though in terms of value still lacking in that ML role catching a higher par today than the events from 3/1 and 3/16.

The class drop is also a positive for #6 PARADISE CITY from the GP Oaks (G2) and reset here on this circuit in the second start of the current form cycle. She showed progression with the added ground and two distance in the prior races from October at KEE as well as the 1/30 N1 allowance win, a dominant (B+) effort on the day as she takes a slight step up in par and purse for this race.

#7 STIPULATE will be tested with the distance change though a good time after the series of races and recovery from the maiden win last month to come back and find that dimension. She moves outside today though not as far out as the 12/28 race and WIDE trip and with some tactical speed shown in the other three sprints and inside draw for those races including the debut with TROUBLE and a strong GALLOP+ out while recording a career top number, factors to support here. 

#8 AVALON GIRL is legitimate as the favorite in this race. She finds the change in class, a lower race par, one of the older runners in this field while also one of the few non-ARbred horses in the race. She will also race off a slight freshening, timing that has been a pattern in the past and less of a concern as that seems to be who she is and with Bejarano sticking aboard.

Bejarano was aboard stablemate #9 NIP IT IN THE BUD two weeks ago and one that returned with the place finish outcome from the 4/11 common race others return from here. Class is a lateral move for that group that could also move forward from that race shape and showing run in their own way that day including  #5 ROCKIRETTA making a WIDE MOVE into the Fast early and Very Fast late race shape noted as based on the ML projecting to be higher than #6 STEEL SPUN and #7 A VISION OF HOPE, #1 PRESLEYS TURN – and NIP IT IN THE BUD.

While #2 LILLY MAE has shown progression all around with each race, they were slightly flow aided with the Very Fast early pace making the CLOSE on 3/30. They share a common race with #4 WHO LU from back on 2/16 the two running similar on the day and WHO LU coming back from a legitimate EX _ EXCUSE with the TROUBLES+ stumbling and bumped hard coming out of the gate on 3/21 unable to have an honest chance to race that day.  

#6 MIDNIGHT TAXES lacked the improvement and class required for the stakes and allowance races this season. While they have not quite been as sharp this year, their form should hold with the change in here and coming back from a subtle trip compromised with the TROUBLE_S and RUSH while in a might higher par catching open company two week ago.

The timing coming in from a slight break could be key for #7 AMAZING SUCCESS one that picked up a win with a similar par and first off the layoff in January. F. Jara aboard on the day will have the call here looking for a similar outcome in this spot and first off the claim for D. Ward.

McKnight the trainer for AMAZING SUCCESS when they ran as advertised by on 1/17 will be represented here by #10 BLAME J D, one that brings upside freshened following an EX – EXCUSE hopping straight up in the air at the break (TROUBLES+) compromising their chances to compete earlier this month and going back to the 3/8 race turned in an effort that fits with today’s group, par to rebound while potentially overlooked at the same time.

If overlooked and #1 HOLDING PATTERN holding the 8-1 ML they can be upgraded though questionable off an obvious “trip” and solid effort two weeks ago and returning here with C. Torres, second off the claim returning to both the sprint distance and statebred company while back in for the tag as well. 

#4 FEELING BEACHY as the projected favorite returns under similar conditions second start of the season and from an honest effort and show finish, a distance show finish though not holding that against her in here as there does not appear to be any Where’s My Ring in this race. FEELING BEACHY turned in an effort that stacks up well with today’s group and perhaps by default landing in the ML favorite role. She will make her second start against winners and did have the front wraps added last out something to note and check for today though still a positive with first call rider Santana named last out and remains up here.

#1 DEVILETTA takes a step up on this circuit and requires some price compensation with that move. She will be tested back on this circuit though in terms of return timing and intent has shown improvement this year and PRESSED on an honest pace picking up the win last month at HOU while given proper timing after that win to recover as another top effort if not a new top required to win.

#2 WILDWOOD BYE has struggled at this level this season and in the past though from time-to-time has run a big race that could get a share at what is expected a big number. That combination along with some subtle trips this year, gives her a look as does the effort under similar conditions, par and two turn distance over this course from last season, the 2/18 BTL effort significant TROUBLE+ playing a role in the 5^th place outcome.

#8 HEY MISTER was upgraded off the debut showing run making an X-WIDE MOVE after a SLOG, TROUBLE_S and perhaps some over compensation for the second start showing early speed making a RUSH X_FLOW and can be upgraded off the pair of starts, the 34-days and noted rider change with C. Torres taking over, something that should see the odds shorter than the ML and positive change with just limited OP starts together over the recent years, a two horse sample of five starts 1 win and three place finishes, and a near excuse on the other that finished off the board 5th.

The longer odds should stick with #9 UNCLE TATER one of a few wheeling right back, though wheeling right back in this spot unable to run their race from the outside post with the rider tactical and WIDE almost a NO_PUSH coming back with the change in post and rider here to suggest improvement and off the debut, a number that stacks up as contentious and in line with as many in this field.

Arrieta takes over on UNCLE TATER, a positive j/t ROI combination and opens up Cedillo to take over on #6 PERFECT DIAL. One that recorded one of the highest figures in this field with the effort back on 2/1 showing tactical speed from the rail doing their best though enough to hold place and at the time just one of a few sophomores against older. This race follows a similar second off pattern looking to come back to that top effort and a better draw today than the outside making a WIDE MOVE on 3/23.

The pair of Moquett runners are worth a mention and upgrade in this race though #13 CONWAY might have to wait for another day deeper on the AE while #10 SPINTHECAT hits the main body of the field and first start at the statebred level showing run after the SLOG in their debut against open last month, a WIDE trip and late MOVE, a near close, something very tough to see with the unassuming running line and finishing position.