Handicapper Tips & Picks

In terms of recorded speed figures and runstyle #1 GOLDEN HORNET has the edge over stablemate #6 GAVEL though in terms of current form GOLDEN HORNET will be tested to return to one of the better efforts. A potential to not only hold the pace advantage over their stablemate but also from the others in the field, could be the path to victory and make things tougher on rival #5 WILDWOOD SICILIAN coming off the layoff as they could forced to duel to compete and provide pace pressure.

#2 TWIRLING ROSES holds early speed as shown on OptixPLOT in Quad I, not quite the same second call speed and would rely on a race shape and the lack of finish GOLDEN HORNET (Circle) showed three weeks ago to track and run them down late. A similar scenario would be required for #3 EYE DEE KAY on the win end, one that fits like TWIRLING ROSES at this level recording a recent B OptixGRADE under a similar par on the year. 

The pace of this race gives the upper hand, or upper Q1 Square to #2 WINGING WAYS over #3 HURTS SO BAD as far as the early pace. The live barn sending out WINGING WAYS is noted where the lack of recency is in play from the 185-day layoff; whereas HURTS SO BAD does have the advantage on that front and conditioning PRESSED from the rail on an honest pace earlier this month. That was the first start back from the 121-days off and front wraps added that day fir the first time could signal reservations and a change for intent here.

The return to ONE_TURN is a positive change for #6 TRY TRY AGAIN as they come back from the layoff, 273-days into this race and seasonal debut. The change in distance on return is paired with the change in class, a drop from the series throughout 2023-2024 though going back to a layoff return race in November (2022) they ran at this condition, distance and similar par off a 92-day break scoring a win with a 78 speed figures.

#4 UNCAPTURED PULSE does not hold a strong pace advantage though in a scenario of an early duel can look for first run. They have the edge in recency for this second start off the layoff and a WIDE trip  at the shorter than their ideal distance on 4/3 and preferred at the 6f. 

The M. Perez pair hold a speed figure edge going back to prior seasons and that could carry to upgrade both #2 MONEY AGENT and #3 BLACK RUSSIAN in this spot. MONEY AGENT visuals (PRERACE-) looked to need the start coming off the layoff two weeks ago and something to look for in the paddock though visually noting a key rider change with O. Mojica aboard; BLACK RUSSIAN has the racing foundation and another rider upgrade with journeyman, L. Colon taking over for this third start back.

#5 BYWORD race a strong figure on debut at KEE that they could easily run back to, and a contender on that front. As far as the KEE start 3 weeks ago, they, like the debut landed an outside post and WIDE trip though unlike the debut caught WEATHER (rain, poor track conditions) and older with a higher par and two of the three older horses finished 1-2 and together at the wire. The change in class for #6 HOLDEN MICHAEL is closer to a lateral move though one that has the route distance experience and conditioning second off, a change from the recent series of race to suggest this could be their time for a peak effort – whether good enough and improved will be asked and answered on the track.

#4 MALIBU FINALE as the benefit of the route experience coming back from the 4/6 race though physically does present on the SPRINTER side and still has the distance question in play today. He could also benefit from keeping his cool prerace, something that was not the case on 4/6 – very worked up WASTED a lot of energy before getting in the gate. Today’s par is slightly higher than the 4/6 common race, a race with show finish #1 RAYFIELD, one that does have the surface/distance experience form last year though again presenting TURF visuals and prior to the race three weeks ago, their higher recorded figures were on the grass at FG. 

#2 MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN might have been a little class exposed taking the rise on 4/17 and moving back down could be the changes she needs. The Plot position today is a further change, moving out from Q3 in the two recent starts to Q 1/2 a position similar to that 8/16 race with a B OptixGRADE recorded in the BLANKET place outcome.

DiZeo stablemate #6 AUTISM COMPASSION finds a lateral change for this second start of the cycle and while they held place on 4/10 recording a B- OptixGRADE, it was a four horse field contested the pace (FTQ, FLOW) with eventual winner, Lady Helena.

#1 TALL GIRL returns with some projected changes from the 3/27 opening week start with the lower par// While Centeno remains aboard, tactically they can be more assertive something that is required for this mare but also from the rail draw and to avoid a similar TROUBLE- trip. Today’s par is nearly identical to the 4/13 claiming event #5 PASTA SALAD RHONDA exits with a dominant/B+ win that day to transfer in this group and the edge over common race #3 HOT DAME in that case.

#4 SILKY WARRIOR holds plenty of races, figures, class that make her a prime contender. With that said, she does not hold a strong pace advantage coming back while looking at the Plot for today’s race and the time off with the 173-day layoff is something new for her – the last time she ran off a similar long layoff (has run off 2-3 month breaks many times) was her second career start, going back to 2021, a turf $75k MCL event on the turf during the sophomore campaign.

The Fire Contention paired with the lower SpeedRate can give off an initial impression to look for off the pace, though runners with tactical speed and finish (Square) can excel as the fractions often can be on the moderate side. #3 MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE can be upgraded in that scenario along with the PREP OptixNOTE Keyword returning from the layoff on 4/6.

#5 MISTER CHARMING also tougher to ignore because he’s charming… and he’s a giant, big Square, a strong late kick compared to the other runners in this field. They also bring in progressive form with the improving OptixGRADE (C+ to B-) for this third start of the season and current form cycle.

The progressive OptixGRADE pattern also follow #6 U S HONOUR NAP from their two starts this season, that edge with a similar race to race pattern over common rivals, #1 WHERE’S THE DAY GO and #4 GITA’S LAD – GITA’S LAD picking up a rider change and could see a TACTIC- change from 4/13 when forced to rate taken out of their runstyle that does prefer to run on the lead. 

#3 STRANGE ARRANGE returns with a Plot upgrade and a massive pace advantage in today’s group. That is noted as a change from the 4/6 race, lacking that pace advantage on the Standard Plot positioned a Circle – something that assisted the “Square” winner on the day, Gavel, a horse trained by L. Rivelli, the barn picking up STRANGE ARRANGE on the day and under similar conditions first start for the barn here.

#4 YO DAWG from that 4/6 common race was assertively ridden and part of the early pace chasing part of the 3-way duel tracked by Gavel. Arguably that tactic, not their ideal runstyle though oven for 5f needing some early position and with O. Mojica taking over and today’s race shape could  land their ideal tracking trip. In that scenario, YO DAWG will require #2 FROSTY VIEW, and #5 WE MISS ARLINGTON to take the role of applying pace pressure to STRANGE ARRANGE something they might not be able to do.

It is unlikely (or might not even by possible at 5.5f) for #6 MAHONEY ROAD, the other Rivelli to contest the pace and while capable on their best day to do so and competitive under these conditions on this circuit, a race might be required and could even see them back on the turf as that becomes an option in the upcoming weeks.

Tough to ignore #7 BALADINE as they threw down and took a tough, tough beat (same, girl) on 4/10 – the most respectable effort stumbling (TROUBL_S) out of the gate and rushing to from the inside to get pipped at the wire by another game race horse, Clyde’s Green Go in a tight photo finish. With that said, BALADINE had the look they had that race effort in them coming off the bench and layoff for the 5f distance on the day and off a similar effort and timing has shown a slight step back and regression to factor here. 

With Loveberry shifting to #10 ELIZA VANCE she could be shorter Rivelli pair and overall preference of the two. She went off favored on debut, physically needed the STRETCH in distance and moved up recorded a number as a juvenile in line from that 8/25 race (against open colts/gelding) in line with those form SPINNING GLORY this year with more upside projected.

In terms of #7 SPINNING GLORY she lacks value in the projected favorite role. In each three starts she has been consistent, though perhaps to a fault, as she has run the same race each time – she has shown speed (NO_FINISH at TP) and recorded the same figure. Today’s race does not offer a change in par and off those races a similar effort could be projected though whether good enough is still tested and does not appear to hold value in that case. To compare value, #1 LA REYNITA from the 4/6 common race ran a similar effort on the day. The same “running the same race each time also carries to #3 SUNSET EXPRESS while also finding a higher par here.

#2 CLEOPATRA SELENE is the lone 4yo in the field. She recorded the highest figures in the field keying off the 10/2023 start and subtle trips on debut as well as the OP race before the layoff in December that fits as a contender. She brings in steady works at KEE where they were likely looking for a race, watching those works as well as her other prior starts the visuals lean more TURF though clearly has been able to run on dirt.

#4 REGAL MAJESTY returns to the dirt for her second start as a sophomore and given a flow-upgrade making a RUSH after a TROUBLE_S into the DUEL and route/8f distance coming off the layoff last month at TP in hand/NO_PUSH after losing ground late.

In terms of the FTS and the T. Tracy pair, #11 HIGH CLASS LADY holds the “faster” on paper works into this race and some intent could be assessed working at HAW last year and back around for this belated debut. O. Mojica takes the call a strong rider with a tricky post in the full field and overall solid j/t combination (18% win, 53% ITM) though a limited sample of FTS – just one in the past few years Irish Coast from last year and tough to take much from that with an EX on the day. O. K Hernandez picks up the call on #5 DIXIE ONE a strong j/t combination especially on ROI with $4.11 boosted with Skalakaho (8-1) winning on Thursday.

#9 ROARING VIXEN makes a belated debut working 10.3 last year at the juvenile June sale. She brings in a long series, some gaps and from the visuals last year, a longer bodied type to raise the question of distance and first start where they might appreciate more ground and surface versatile. 

If allowed to get clear #4 CHIPOTLE PEPPER could find another front end trip and pace advantage, however there are others in here to keep them honest such as #1 END OF INNOCENSE along the rail. #3 FLOATING also has the ability to show early speed and the rider change today after breaking on top and rating back in the 2/16 race and similar rating in traffic last month should see a more assertive hand with De La Cruz back aboard.

#5 SWEET MOTHER MARY will also find a rider change and further changes moving up the rail when it comes to class running for a lower tag and that combination should suggest intent here. Improvement could also be assessed for this third start of the form cycle with progressive numbers into this race and a number on par from back on 1/23 a day where she did have trouble with the stick of another rival hitting them in the face.

#6 CHASING SHADOWS also brings in progressive numbers with the class change third start of this current form cycle and flow upgrade from the 4/11 start. Trip is key for them with their off the pace runstyle despite holding races on par, at the right level to compete and positive rider change with the most recent win rider Bealmear taking back over. Trip with the distance change is noted for both #2 PEPPERS GIRLFRIEND and #7 LEGALLY LUCKY another pair with races on par and capable connections though does come down to trip in this race shape and with the return to one turn. 

#1 REWIRE finds a positive change in par and Plot position coming right back for this race. While those factors move them up in this field, the timing is noted and not taken into those accounts as they will be required to run back to the efforts from this season to compete, races all with 30+ days between starts.

The opposite timing noted for #2 A LA CARTE from the long layoff with just a few published works out of town. Otherwise one that fits off overall speed figures and class and arguably even their “slower” recorded figures to date could still be competitive here. Stablemate #5 HAYAHLOOKATME has the edge on recency and a better fit back in for a claiming ta, though a rise in par from the MCL conditioned win and perhaps even taken as a lateral move from the statebred allowance last month. HAYYALOOKATME brings in early speed to play a role in the first flight, not without holding for the win or a share with that trip, though also keeping REWIRE and #9 BIG GAIN honest up front to potentially assist A LA CARTE for a tracking first run trip.

#7 CRAVENSWORTH makes a belated second start this season and from coming off the layoff was under similar N2 conditions back in Jan. Clearly, needing the race and timing after, they bring in a couple of works and a live rider with T. Back and going back to last season was competitive under a similar par and condition to fit and fit with the recent buried form. 

Overall there are no major knocks on #3 BETTERA though at the same times does not have any strong edge in this group and coming off the FLOW aided place finish could lack value while capable. #2 HIGGINSVILLE wheels right back under similar conditions and honest effort with the show finish and WIDE trip from the outside on 4/12. They should be well-spotted right back under similar condition looking for that second win. They had a look two weeks ago making a belated return to this circuit keying off the maiden races throughout 2024 on numbers and even visuals noting a BTL effort in the 1/1 second career start.

#7 RIVETAGE could also present upside from the races this season and change in class back in for a similar tag to the claim and place finish on 3/1. Off that race, claim, step up in class and less time between starts all likely factors in outcome along with acting up in the gate on 3/28. If there is a time to get back on track this should be it.

Distance has been a concern for them at times and does need things in their favor -  similar distance limitations have been shown at times for #4 TEN DAYSLATER though back numbers and form from the 2023-24 OP seasons that fit and perhaps positive with the timing coming right back given the recent double layoff lines.

Current form for #5 MONEYSHOT has not been as strong in the two recent starts though from December though Feb those efforts with the higher par and subtle trips would fit here and at longer odds could make the case, though does take a bit of faith in the case of a turnaround with the quickness. 

#9 SUPER BRADY moves back to an outside post for the first time since the show finish on 1/26 and perhaps that is the key for them to get back to a top effort and compete. With the change in post they will also pick up a rider change and look to be assertive once again, a tactical change from trying to rate two weeks ago. Today’s shorter sprint distance is also a change that could be to their benefit winning at the 5f distance last September and a winning effort settling for place in the 11/13 RP start at today’s 5.5f distance.  

#6 VULCAN also has back shorter sprint form to key if while looking for a very belated win, the first time for a photo since a front running allowance win here in Jan, Jan 2023. Since them they have held their form at times turned in winning efforts and primarily looking for the right spot and timing with some layoffs along the way. They bring in current form, and form that follows an every other pattern on the upswing of that cycle into this race.

The group returning from the 4/4 common race could land attention here and taking a different path into this race, #7 THE QUEENS JULES could be overlooked one that brings in similar form from the races this season though a little more time between starts into this race, a subtle post change and rider change to see this 10yo regain their competitive ways here. 

Today’s group and race shape brings chaotic elements and in that scenario could reward outside the box thinking where connections will be relied on for the bulk of the public. #9 IT’SFIFTYSHADETIME makes their second start on this circuit along with the third start of this current form cycle to project some improvement. That projection must come through as current form and figures sit below par. With that said, they meet others that must turn things around with the quickness today to compete and has those form cycle positive going for them and subtle change in Plot position and race shape from the 3/30 start to move up on that front as well.

Number wise #8 BABY GUNDIN is on the lower end of par though in terms of form this season fits for this level and lateral change in par from the win back on 3/2. She threw down a big effort that day to win going away, the type of effort to project REGRESS-ion, something that might have along with the timing lacked a role two weeks later with the place finish lacking kick when given the right position and chance late in the lane. That timing noted and with a change returning with the 42-day recovery time for this start and regular rider, Vazquez back aboard.

#6 CLASS CODE can pop with a big number from time to time, showing as much with their most recent win, going back to last September at Hastings. Since them and claimed running on this circuit,, a higher par in the first two starts, a competitive race on 3/16 and while no real excuse two weeks ago might be another every other type and in that case a top effort today could be right there in this field and subtle change in race dynamic that may also be to their liking. 

A solid field opens the day with $25k claimers. There's some pace in this race as I'm hoping 5-WILDWOOD SICILIAN gets a stalking trip and runs on late. He makes his first start of the year and has been working well toward his return. He likes this track and the distance and has to hope another goes with Golden Hornet early. 2-TWIRLING ROSES is another that has been good at Hawthorne as he has raced well through the winter. The price should be right as I expect he is running on in the lane. 1-GOLDEN HORNET has a ton of speed and will likely be winging it from the rail today. He wasn't able to clear in his last which was costly but that race was off a lengthy layoff as well. This is his second start back and he finds easier company.

Pace makes the race and there looks to be only one that is likely to go early. That one is 2-WINGING WAYS as he closed out 2024 on a three race win streak and has worked well toward his return. The barn is off to a hot start, the distance suits, and all he will need is a clean break today. 1-HATCHET CREEK has to hope Hurts So Bad goes after Winging Ways as he will be looking to rate and run on late. He's been good over the track but is winless at this distance. The price will be right though as he should be running on late. 3-HURTS SO BAD has some speed, but it isn't the same as Winging Ways. With that said, if Winging Ways gets away a step slowly, there's a chance Hurts So Bad is forwardly placed and looks to steal this one. Let's see how this race unfolds early.

There's a couple with speed in here but there's not much consistency amongst this field. One that surely needed his last was 3-BLACK RUSSIAN as he was making his second start of the meet on a quick return. He has tactical speed and with a couple who should be forwardly placed to either side of him, a stalking trip may be the perfect trip. 1-RAYFIELD improved in his last as Murrill gave him an excellent ride. He will likely need everything to go his way to win, but if he can save ground early, expect him to pick off runners through the lane. 4-MALIBU FINALE will be one with speed, as he will look to beat Money Agent to the top. He ran well in his first start around two turns last out and likely gained some fitness off that effort.

There's a chance trainer Dino Dizeo could go 1-2 in here. I'll look to the longer of the two prices as 6-AUTISM COMPASSION makes her second start of the meet and was very game in her last. With Hot Dame likely to show early speed, Autism Compassion should be able to press the pace and run on late. Let's see if we can catch a price. 2-MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN faced a tough group in her last as she rated mid pack and ran on late. She likes the distance and finds things a bit easier as she will take her share of action. 5-PASTA SALAD RHONDA steps up off the claim for a barn that has done well to open this meet. I like that Loveberry retains the mount as the only concern will be if she gets enough pace to chase.

Two Rivelli and two Berndt horses in this spot as all are in with a chance. Going to look to 3-STRANGE ARRANGE on top as he makes his second start of the meet and first off the claim. He has tactical speed, likes this track and fits at the distance. 4-YO DAWG chased at this level in his last, finishing less than a length behind Strange Arrange at the wire. His price should be decent today as Mojica gets the call. 2-FROSTY VIEW comes in off the layoff as he has been working well toward his comeback. We will see if he needs a race but expect him to be closing well in the lane.

A solid maiden bunch to close out the card. While the Rivelli runners will take action, I'll look to a slight upset and go to 3-SUNSET EXPRESS in here. She has been consistent in her starts in Florida and has some tactical speed. If she is able to rate in the second flight early, she could get the jump on the late closers. Interesting that Loveberry is aboard 10-ELIZA VANCE in here as stablemate Spinning Glory appears to have the better figures. Eliza Vance has taken action in both of her starts and has a consistent work pattern toward her return. She gets Lasix in here and should be able to clear some horses early. Debuting on the outside is 11-HIGH CLASS LADY as she has worked well toward this start. She comes in with a sharp gate work on April 9 and with the outside draw she will potentially have to show some early speed. Let's see if she takes any action at the windows as she could be a sleeper in here.

3-EYE DEE KAY showed little and didn’t beat a rival in his first start after getting claimed by this barn but he is likely to find a perfect pace scenario in this race, his local debut. Virtually all of his rivals have varying degrees of speed and he could be the best closer of the bunch. Obviously 1-GOLDEN HORNET is a major threat. He’s probably the quickest member of this field but he doesn’t seem to like getting hooked on the front end. There’s no guarantee that he’ll wire the field even if he doesn’t face any early pressure but it does seem unlikely that he’ll be unchallenged for long. 6-GAVEL, stablemate of Golden Hornet is the other likely to come from off the pace though he often displayed good speed in the past. He came from off the pace to beat a similar field at a shorter distance in last. Could try the same tactic today.

In my head, I keep trying to beat 2-WINGING WAYS in this race but I just can’t find a way to do it. It’s true that he’s making his first start of the year but he has won off layoffs. His drills have been sufficient. He wired the fields in his last three starts and says catch me today.  3-HURTS SO BAD is nearly as quick as top choice. He tired in his first start of the year but that should have strengthened his foundation and he could be right there with top choice all the way around. 1-HATCHET CREEK makes his third start off the layoff. He doesn’t have a big closing move but it seems likely that he’ll make up ground if all the speedsters tire.

I’m going to toss out the 2-MONEY AGENT’S last race. He was making his first start of the year off one three-furlong published drill. He obviously needed more. He raced at this level twice last year and finished second both times. He owns pretty good speed and would expect him to display more staying power today. 4-MALIBU FINALE tired in last when they stretched him out for the first time. But there’s a good possibility that he’ll improve from the experience. He appears to be the quickest and could be first from the gate. Can stay there throughout. 1-RAYFIELD finished third in his first start of the meet. He did that despite running into the gate at the start. Now that he’s at the right level he can fare even better with a clean trip.

2-MEMPHIS CASH QUEEN makes her third start of the year. Her first race was too short and she was in too tough in last. With the drop to the right level, she should be tough to beat. 5-PASTA SALAD RHONDA was so much the best in last, her local debut. She was claimed from that start and moves up in class but the rider that was aboard for the win is back as the pilot. Not sure if that race was an aberration, she hadn’t been in the best of form for a while, but if she can repeat that effort, she’s going to be awfully tough to beat in this spot. 6-AUTUMN COMPASSION just finished second versus similar. That was her first race since January, her first start at Hawthorne, and her first race for this barn. Seems likely to be a major player once again. 

With all the sure-to-tire speed in this race, the pace could set up perfectly for a closer. Unfortunately, none in here really fit that description but 6-U S HONOR NAP might be the most capable of making a late run. He ran out of gas in last but he did make a big middle move to grab the lead before fading. If better timed, it could be the winning move today.  Not sure old timer 3-MIDNIGHT BLUE NOTE has a lot left in the tank but I think he could still be the best of this group. He faded a bit in his first start of the year but that might have been the tightener he needed. 4-GITA’S LAD is most likely to go for the lead. He faded in both starts this year but there’s always a chance he’ll hang on. 

Not in love with 3-STRANGE ARRANGE but he was in consistently great form last year, he finished a strong second in his first start this year, and he was claimed by one hot barn from another in that last race. He does like the front end, like most of his rivals, but sharp rider in the irons might be able to get him to relax early and save something for the stretch run. 4-YO DAWG is another who needed last. He tired while pressing the pace but it’s his more natural closing ability that will be valuable in this speed-filled race. 7-BALADINE was razor sharp and razor tough in his first start of the year. He fought for the lead every step of the way and got nipped at the wire by a late running rival. He could be every bit as tenacious today.

10-ELIZA VANCE makes her first start since August. She’s one of two in this race starting for the Rivelli barn. She was barely beaten in her last start, racing against the boys. Gets first Lasix. Gets Loveberry in the irons even though he rode the other Rivelli runner in last, who was narrowly beaten. Slim pick. The other Rivelli-trained runner 7-SPINNING GLORY might make more sense. She ran well in her first two starts at Turfway and then again in her first race here when she fought hard for the lead but had to settle for second place. 2-CLEOPATRA SELENE hasn’t raced since December of 2023 but she has been training forwardly for a barn that is good with layoff horses. Plus, shipping her here might be a vote of confidence, especially since they are bringing in their own rider.