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Sun May 4th, 2025 |
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Emily's Analysis
Hawthorne Race 1
Post Time 2:40 PM CST
A competitive race given the complexion of this field and
challenges with runners taking different paths and likely different odds (many
previous longshots) as things change here. Those scenario also along with recency
should upgrade #5 JUSTAWALKINTHEPARK one that has the higher recorded
figure in this field going back to their second start, the December effort at the
FG. That race with a higher par followed the series of races that meet and should
move up on this circuit. They find closer to a lateral change in class, with a
massive flow upgrade making WIDE RUSH after breaking out into a Very Fast early
pace and the race shape still Very Fast late as JUSTAWALKINTHEPARK was eased up/NO_PUSH
late.
M. Boyce returns with the pair and edge in recency with #1
RUMBLING one that made a positive appearance coming off the layoff and it was
reasonable to project upside from the juvenile season, and they showed as much
with the improved effort and all things considered a good show finish adversity
(TROUBLE SAVED) notwithstanding, however today take the rise all around and
could require another move forward from the return last month to stand up on
the win end.
#3 FRONTIER MARKET returns from the long layoff, something
not common for this barn with maiden, RUMBLING being the recent sample of maiden
runners off the long layoff. With that runner showing improvement off the bench,
it is reasonable to project similar with FRONTIER MARKET. The rider change is
notable already with a win this season for Boyce aboard, Beehive, a runner with
a lot of success for this jockey/trainer combination last year on the dirt, a
positive ROI with that sample of runners – 30% winners and 87% ITM.
At longer odds in their most recent starts both #2 MARK MY
MEMORY and #6 RED RIZZLER turned in competitive B- OptixGRADE efforts.
In terms of class, RED RIZZLER did so at the higher level and par than MARK MY
MEMORY though the 4yo must show they can repeat as they can often show an “every
other” type though the move to the outside pit be to their liking while on the
dirt.
#4 LONE RETURN returns as the other older horse in the field
giving up recency from the 206 day layoff. They could be at the right level for
their abilities, a horse that has in 14 of the 15 races to date run against
maiden allowance (MSW) or one time against statebred allowance and the lone
start in MCL company was a subtle and WIDE trip on the turf, a much higher par
than what today’s race brings.
Hawthorne Race 2
Post Time 3:05 PM CST
As an individual, #6 MISS MIKOS is the horse
to beat. Looking at the Plot, she brings in dominant early speed as a Large Q1
Square and that presence should make her tough on the front end and by contrast
play against rival #3 ABSOLUTE MIRACLE with a similar position early bringing
in first and second call speed (Q1 Above the ParLine) though lack the finishing
ability – Circle – vs Square – late.
With MISS MIKOS given the strong edge in that role she could
have to battle with the early contention as both #1 JOYZELLA and #5 SHE STOPPED
SHORT sit in Q3, a position with the same first call speed (reading Plot left
to right) though not as strong second call speed (top to bottom) as their Q1
rivals.
That scenario can assist from off the pace and #2 CHIQUITA
REINA coming in with form from Oaklawn Park that should transfer here, however in
terms of par this is a lateral move and looking at her most recent figures and
OptixGRADE, those efforts sit below today’s par.
#4 THUNDER KIN is the most interesting coming back
off the layoff with upside and class from juvenile season to step up in this
spot and not unreasonable to project her on the level of others in this field including
main rival, MISS MIKOS here. THUNDER KIN holds the lone win while with Berndt
running fresh on debut and brings in steady local works, enough to come out
race ready. I. Hernandez taking over today is a very, very live rider for this barn
at Hawthorne. Since last year, they show a positive $.52 ROI with 18% winners
and 63% ITM – two of the winners this year were long layoff returnees with Papa’s
Nico Boy and Shake Up.
Hawthorne Race 3
Post Time 3:30 PM CST
This is a strong race where each and every horse fits as a
contender. That makes it tougher to take a short number on principal while respecting
#6 LUNDBERG in that role and coming out of the Oaklawn meet with solid
consistent figures chasing things up to run protected on this circuit. Looking
at the Plot, they are capable, though no real strong edge something that
carries to others in this field – no pace advantage or disadvantage.
That can move up a runner like #3 KING ANTHONY
one returning first off the claim, though given 35-days while returning
protected here and on their best day holds numbers in line with the main
contenders and perhaps just finding the right changes (including 6f distance) and
timing coming back in here returning to those efforts.
#4 IT’S BOBS BUSINESS returns under similar
conditions from the 4/6 race and upgraded off the visuals making a strong CLOSE
and GALLOP+ overall suggesting a PREP returning that day. They have back
numbers from earlier in the juvenile season while sprinting of the dirt and
perhaps the positive sign last out the connections has been belatedly looking
for. In terms of the race winner, #2 CORTESE they found the right
FREE tracking trip with first run and especially when looking at the Plot could
easily repeat in a nearly identical way.
Their stablemate and as noted in Race 2 the jockey trainer
combination with layoff runners as that can apply here for #5 VICTORIOUS VANDA –
at the same time they could need the start and added ground. While their season
final allowance win on 9/26 fits on numbers and similar par they were all out
(HARD) to hold for the 19-1 upset win and while given credit as the BOS they SAVED
ground and the pace was Slow early and late, a slight flow downgrade going
forward.
#1 DANZA TAXI also gives up recency and ultimately could
benefit from a race and number wise must improve as their numbers fit on par
though their top figures are lighter than top figures from others. Making the
case for them here, and again looking at the Plot, there is a scenario they
scamper clear on the lead and a pacesetting threat in this group.
Hawthorne Race 4
Post Time 3:55 PM CST
#6 SHIP IT should have every chance to win this race.
She fits this condition (a very cool and creative condition imo) perfectly and
finds the subtle change she could require at this point in her career to return
to winning ways. In the past, she has recorded some of the higher figures in
this field and done so consistently. Those factors encouraged the connections
to bring her along as the part of the Oaklawn string, however between timing,
class and trip struggled that season. She showed up on this circuit last month,
a shorter distance, a TROUBLE_S and a Fast early and late pace while racing
with a strong headwind on a very blowy day to upgrade from that event here. The
timing also might be on her side, given 31-days and a live rider with Bendezu
aboard.
The Plot position for SHIP IT from off the pace as a Q2/Q4 Circle is not the most ideal shape,
though in part to the Oaklawn races impacting the shape primarily where
position fits today’s race dynamic with the Sun Contention and honest 38
SpeedRate to set up training runners from off the pace. Something to upgrade #7
GO STORMIN GIRL as she brings a positive form cycle pattern with improving (C+,
B-) OptixGRADES into this third start back.
The pace is noted for #5 LOST SUNSET with legitimate first call
speed shown as the Large Q3 Square, though should be tested with both #2 FIT
AND FAMOUS and #3 MISS SAIPAN in A1 and above the ParLine testing the group all
around and could even make things tougher with #4 DIXIE PENNY potentially in
that first flight and with SHIP IT close to that ParLine on Surface/Distance.
Hawthorne Race 5
Post Time 4:21 PM CST
Based off current form and figures, #4 A REAL HERO has the
edge and the horse to beat. With that said, she is one that can come from off the
pace, though will note a Plot change for her here moving to Q1/Q2 for the
first time since a route race back in 2022 at PID. The change is likely in play
not to her runstyle but more to current form and representing the edge in this
field on that factor.
That change in “trip” for A REAL HERO could put the pressure
on the bookended pacesetting runners as #1 BLAZINGLY from the rail will look to
get back on track here for the second start of the season, going back to the
first part of the meet returning with front wraps and something to look for today;
#7 RUNNERS HEAT from the outside lacked excuse up front with the Slow early and
late pace as the FTQ (first to quit on the duel) on 4/17 though perhaps needed
the race coming back that day off the 186-day layoff.
Looking to get creative in this spot and outside the
obvious, #2 PALACE MAGIC is at the right level and distance (the change to 6f)
for her to compete and run as contender.
She brings in current form with progression race to race for this third start
off the layoff and back numbers that stack up with the current once from A REAL
HERO.
Number wise #3 RAINY MOUNTAIN has those similar figures,
though has not run those numbers since the 2022-23 campaign. The change in
class and perhaps even the timing coming back around could be key noting some
DROP OptixNOTES Projections from last year that support the class change.
Hawthorne Race 6
Post Time 4:47 PM CST
From a race shape standpoint this race could go through #6
PHILIPSBURG on the front end when looking at the Plot and the edge over the other
Q1-3 runners. With that said, there is a more “contentious” Surface/Distance bunching
up scenario that PHILIPSBURG could be tested with an including the three
runners along the inside (including the returning 4yo #3 LAST MINUTE) to increase
the contention and force PHILIPSBURG on the outside of those runners to use to clear
or make them show they are “best” with a ground loss, wide trip to win.
That scenario opens up the race from off the pace and form #7
PROFESSOR HIGGINS second off and one that should benefit from the PREP returning
from the layoff last month to move up here. Trip could also suit #5 PLUNDER
looking at the Plot though other factors like Class will be tested back at the
allowance level and a much, much higher race par returning here from the
lighter par back on 4/10.
#4 CANYON SHADOWS lands in this spot for their return and
while picking up the allowance win last season recording a strong figure on 9/5
in the process, that race against statebred noted and not as much success
following in open allowance company. Perhaps that had to do with the timing
more than class coming off that top on 9/5 just two weeks later with a NO_PUSH
to take with a grain of salt and the layoff following the 10/13 race closing
week to be forgiving of outcome.
Hawthorne Race 7
Post Time 5:13 PM CST
This is a strong “pace makes the race” and “value makes play”
way to play the finale. The early pace should be as advertised Contentious with
the Sun and 38 SpeedRate that includes #4 NULLARBOR, #5 CHAOS REIGNS and #8
EUCLID AVENUE all in Quad I above the ParLine and Circles – a lack of finishing
ability to look outside that trio for the top spot.
#1 DOUBLE THUNDER found a PERFECT trip to win returning to
Hawthorne and the dirt last month and could find similar with today’s Plot
position and draw where they can save ground from the rail and look for first run.
With a similar trip #2 MCMONEY and #3 GLOBAL EMPIRE will be right there to stalk-and
pounce.
GLOBAL EMPIRE has the edge on class of the two and upgrade
making a WIDE MOVE into a Slow pace in the 4/20 return while earning a B-
OptixGRADE in the process with the number from last summer standing out in today’s
group and on the higher side of today’s par. They hold that perhaps buried
speed and class edge over MCMONEY – one that is likely to be shorter of the two
coming off the win two weeks ago though had a SETUP with their main rival
getting tired late and fell into the win.
#6 CODE RUNNER brings in current form for this third start
back off the layoff and perhaps a peak effort with that projection and back
numbers that fit as a contender. That projection must come with price compensation
given the slight change in class and higher par. In terms of speed figures,
they will also require improvement, though could see that with the trip making
a MOVE through TRAFFIC into a Very Slow early and late pace. That was followed up
two weeks later with a WIDE CLOSE and fitness should be there to support on
conditioning as well.