Handicapper Tips & Picks

Similar to the projected 5/8 race shape #6 LILY’S CREED presents a pace advantage on the front (Q1 Square) end. She came up short with the lone trip tracked by eventual winner, Lucy’s Lookin Left in the four horse field and also noted change with LILY’S CREED adding front wraps on the day.

Her stablemate #2 NO NANETTE GO scratched from that 5/8 race and returning for the second start of the season back under similar conditions to the 4/13 race and back under conditions where she had been effective last year while going winless was right there at times, often impacted by race dynamics.

#3 SILKY WARRIOR projects the biggest threat to the E. Rodriguez pair making her second start on the year and class relief from the 4/27 start. That race a potential PREP, and higher conditioned race should set her up to run here. She must return to top form, efforts and figures from the 2024 season to compete though a noted win with a similar form cycle pattern and at this level last May – 5/19. 

#4 A REAL HERO should find no excuses with today’s race shape and the projected pace advantage shown on the Plot with the position clear and forward at the first and second call in Q1 with finishing ability – Square. She finds a subtle change from the two other races this season, races with higher SpeedRate both on 4/13 (58) and 5/4 (29) when compared to the lower SpeedRate today, all runners below the ParLine.

The change in race shape is noted on the opposite end for #2 AWESOME SUNDAY returning where she has had the higher 4/13 SpeedRate as well as Fire Contention on 5/15 with Fast early race shapes when it all played out to run at and might not find similar here – especially when looking at Surface/Distance deeper down in Q4. The change on Surface/Distance can upgrade #5 PALACE MAGIC along with current form, progressing with racing, a similar pattern from prior season and comes into this race with the lack of “Red” in the Past 2 Runlines.

Trip will be crucial for #6 RAINY MOUNTAIN though brings upside with the class change from the race just last week. In addition to pace, a further upgrade with trip racing WIDE X_FLOW and NO_PUSH not asked or allowed to show their best on the day and returns with 5/4 win rider, S. Gonzalez aboard. 

#1 TWO COOKIE RULE should find the right trip time and place looking for their first win on the year. They have held their form since returning to Hawthorne on 4/6 and along with A. Bendezu aboard. They can be upgraded from the 5/11 race not only with the rider change but also the higher Sun Contention and SpeedRate something that also was present on 4/24. They find a race shape similar to that back on 4/6 when coming off the layoff and had some adversity there giving up 69-days recency as well as heavily WARM (washed out) and TROUBLE_S stumbled out of the gate.

Trip will be key with their main threat #5 CODE RUNNER looking to pair up wins returning from the 5/11 common race overcoming adversity at the break and overall speed figures consistent as a contender on that front as well. #6 MISTER CHARMING moves back outside from the 5/11 race when stepping up in class off a win and peak third off on the day. The connections will look to get back on track and back reunited with S. Gonzalez in the process.

The timing, conditioning and rider change could move up #4 FLYING SAMURAI off their races and outcomes this season. They were moving forward and flow upgrade from the April races before the SLOG, WIDE trip and NO_PUSH two weeks ago. 

A solid race with the complexion of the field and competitive in terms of race shape in true honor of the stakes namesake, Work All Week. With that said. #3 RED FLAG holds a class edge while presenting as a graded stakes winner back in their juvenile season in the Bob Hope (G3) dominating the competition (B+) and has since been a solid race horse. They are looking to return to stakes winning ways here and all chance to. They come into this race with current form from the races in their form cycle. They showed class with the allowance win off the layoff in March at Oaklawn at a higher par and a similar higher par coming back in the $200k St. Matthews stakes earlier his month at CD. They hold runstyle versatility while best with a target to chase, something they should have here, they are not committed to a particular race shape to run their best.

#4 YO DAWG comes into this race with the edge on form and recorded with competitive efforts this season at a higher par and fitness in this third start of the cycle. They are versatile to handle the shift back to the turf, the surface where they started out their career and in solid hands with Mojica sticking aboard.

YO DAWG has been pointed to the turf and scratching from a similar event on 5/11 to run here. That 5/11 event will return represented with #6 DINOS DIXIE looking to improve overall and certainly capable of doing so. Their best game is on the lead and lunging out of the gate forced to make a WIDE RUSH into a Fast early pace compromised on flow and running against the track profile, a big upgrade here. They should again find pace pressure with #8 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK one that moves to the outside post today and outside of DINOS DIXIE as a change here. #7 CHANNEL WON also worth a mention from that common race; they were returning from the layoff on the day, cold on the board and racing first time with front wraps created reservations to put in front of the other handicapping factors on the day.

#1 ROTARY DIAL appears a clever claim and could be a financial success as well. They step up in class for this spot while bringing in current form and figures on par. That extends to fitness, something required over the “Carey Prairie” turf course. As far as the step up in class, technically that is the case though in terms of race spar, this comes with a lower par and lateral move at the least. 

This is a tough race when looking at today’s conditions from surface/distance to the path of runners into this event. As noted in an earlier analysis they key to fitness and noted for the runners returning from layoffs or at the least giving up some recency into this spot and on others. #6 EL MUCHO has the edge on recency for this third start of the season. Their back class and buried form provided the key and winning outcome on 4/3. They were stepped up in class where the race par was a bigger hurdle along with the timing (17 day turnaround) on the day. They have been given adequate recovery while not taking a class drop as a positive. In terms of the surface switch, they should hold form as a versatile type and tough to hold the lone grass race against them setting a Very Fast early pace around two turn at a higher $30k claiming level at the FG with a layoff line that followed.

Terms of conditioning that carries to #3 A P BLAZING GREEN for a second start off the layoff and class relief. Finding the right level to compete has been their main hurdle throughout their career, one that is overall consistent just needs the right level and right group. #7 ALIBI IKE also with recency and positive “every other” pattern into this race. They are taking a bigger class rise from where they have been competitive in the past. Nothing that could keep them out of the top spots, but rather something that requires price compensation first and foremost. 

A case can be made for many in this field and lacking a real true standout “horse to beat” in this group, while respecting #5 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL in that role. They bring in consistent form and figures from the races this season a B OptixGRADE at the level earlier this month. Their effort was compromised with the TROUBLE_S checking back soon after the start, though perhaps slightly in their favor from a dynamic standpoint, as they had the Very Fast early pace to run into.

ETERNALLY GRATEFUL has more tactical early speed as shown on the Plot in the Q1/2 position as a Square above the ParLine, a position that should keep the early pace (#1 BETTERA and #3 BIGFOOT SIGHTING) of the Q1/3 Circles honest with #4 DYNAMIS in a similar tracking trip.

#8 MYSTIC POWER could be flying under the radar and live in this spot. In the name of progression, they have moved forward with each start coming back this season racing into shape. The two sprints should provide fitness including the 4/24 return making a positive PRERACE+ appearance while in running breaking SLOG making a MOVE and GALLOP something coming back at FP on 5/13 less than ideal 5.5f shorter distance though maintaining fitness with the WIDE trip into this spot. Number wise they will require a new top with the other established types in this field, though have upside as a four-year-old and today’s race shape (Sun/50 SpeedRate) suits them here.

#6 CAUGHT OFF GUARD had the benefit of the 4/13 start and BOS/B- effort under similar conditions and par off the layoff for this second start of the season. They will be tested to step up on the win and shorter odds could be projected today with the recent outcome and connections. 

#1 FAST JACK returns from the layoff and will require fitness to contend at the same time holds a class and speed figure edge. While the surface switch comes into play making the move to the TURF has been a long time coming and based on their physicality should at the least transfer their form if not move up. The connections must run for the tag here though no giveaways with this 8-yo IL-bred gelding running for the higher $35k tag.

FAST JACK has early speed and races as advertised along with the rail draw. The contention just to their outside with #2 CONGRATS ON FIFTY is legitimate; another “fast” runner overall and in the early stages of the race. The 5f distance could assist those front runners while noting there is still each other to contest along with the higher 50 SpeedRate. That SpeedRate is certainly subject to change with the two MTO #9 UNCASHED and #10 GAVEL certainly something that could change the entire analysis with a surface switch.

Keeping to the turf, a contentious early pace suits #3 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL bringing in current form and fitness from the GP series of races back to Hawthorne where they were competitive last year. Those races from late in the season, closer to a lateral change for today’s par while at the time giving up recency off the layoff in September before picking up the October win.

Stronger closer types like could struggle with the 5f distance in the case of #4 COMISKEY PARK one that at least can show tactical speed despite the Plot position. #5 TWIRLING ROSES showed more tactical speed with the win last month, though a change able to sit closer with the 6f distance on the main track and race shape on the day, a change here. They were Q1/Q3 Plot position in the races this season and shift to Q4 (Standard) for this race. 

The top two will take a lot of action. 3-SILKY WARRIOR drops out of a tougher spot as she makes her second start of the meet. She has tactical speed and may rate closer in here. 6-LILY'S CREED showed speed in her last and was game to the wire. Look for her to clear again in here. 2-NO NANNETTE NO chased a slow pace last out. She may get a bit more to close into today.

Who makes the lead??? Hoping it's price play 7-HEAVENLY HASH as Ulloa gets the call. She has shown that ability in the past to rate close and the price will be eight. 4-A REAL HERO is the one to beat. She raced well in her two starts and Bendezu has fit her well. 5-PALACE MAGIC could also show some speed today. If she sends with the bug girl aboard, maybe she can steal this one.

The favorite will be tough but races for a new barn today. Giving the nod to 2-ALVIN as he has been sharp in his last couple with Mojica aboard. The horse is well spotted and should get a good trip. 5-CODE RUNNER was an easy winner in his last and could easily repeat. The only reason I stayed away is that I expect the price to be very short and the horse runs for a new barn. 1-TWO COOKIE RULE was in contention late in his last before tiring. He should be laying just off the pace in here as he looks to contend the entire way.

Three Hernandez horses in here, all with different styles. Looking to 2-LUNDBERG as he figures to make the top. Hernandez almost had a horse steal the stake last week with Gray Lightning and Lundberg could be the upsetter for him in here. 5-NAVY SEAL likes this track and has run well for Loveberry in the past. He has a fine meet at Oaklawn and could rate closer in this spot. 3-RED FLAG ships in as he figures to be a major contender as well. He has some versatility and may look to rate closer early in here.

Giving the old man another shot as 7-CHANNEL WON looks to rate and run out late. He faced tougher in his last and contending into the lane before tiring. Look for him to be a bit better in here. 6-DINOS DIXIE has speed and will try to beat the outside runner to the top. He showed speed before tiring in his last and should hang around longer in here. 4-YO DAWG has tactical speed as he looks to rate mid-pack early and run on late. Although winless on turf, he's found the board in 8 of 10 grass starts and should be right there once again.

Going to be hard to beat state-bred 4-MAN ON ATTACK as he comes off a good turf sprint in New Orleans in his last. Look for him to settle back early today and rally in the lane. 1-NAGY AND DA BEARS will be on the gas from the rail today. He has a couple of turf victories on his career and is well spotted in here. 5-VALIANTLY DISCREET tries the turf for the first time. He shouldn't be too far back at any point as he looks to run on late.

ML favorite 5-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL figures to be very tough in this spot as he comes right back at the same level today. He stalked and rallied in his last as he figures to get a very similar trip. 4-DYNAMIS has a good Oaklawn meet as he won for nearly four times of the price he was claimed for in his most recent race. He rated closer in his last couple and threatened the entire way. 6-CAUGHT OFF GUARD was a good third in his last and likely needed that race off the layoff. Expect him to stalk and battle every step of the way.

Lots of pace in this race which could set things up for a closer. Looking to 4-COMISKEY PARK as he has found the board in four of six turf starts and looks for his first win on the grass. He should be able to tuck in early and rally in the lane. 5-TWIRLING ROSES may be best off stalking the pace as he also looks for his first grass score. Murrill has been a fine fit in the saddle with him. 1-FAST JACK is very fast early and figures to wing it from the rail. If he can clear he will be tough, but there's a possibility he has company early in here.

6-LILY’S CREED comes off a narrow loss. She didn’t show much in her first start of the meet but she led almost all the way in last. Doesn’t seem likely to face much early pressure. Can take it all the way. 3-SILKY WARRIOR needed last. She was a well-beaten fourth in a much tougher field but she’s dropping into a low-level claimer for this and she has always been tough against this type of rival. 2-NO NANNETTE NO, stablemate of top choice, could be the best of the rest. She owns decent speed and could be in the thick of things throughout while making her second start of the meet.

4-A REAL HERO could enjoy an easy early lead and, with the cutback in distance, that could be all it takes to earn her her first victory of the year. 6-RAINY MOUNTAIN couldn’t handle better company in last but she did come on late to win her previous start at this level, beating many of these rivals in the process. Just not sure if the probable pedestrian pace of this race will work to her advantage. 5-PALACE MAGIC was narrowly beaten by Rainy Mountain in her last start. She faced fillies and mares in her prior two starts and the winners from those two races both came right back to win again. She’ll be racing closer to the pace than Rainy Mountain and could be leading the second tier of runners with only A Real Hero to catch. She could get the perfect trip.

5-CODE RUNNER is probably the one to beat. After all, he beat most of this field in his last start. However, he was claimed from that race by a trainer without much history as a licensed trainer. Hard to pick with confidence until we see more. 1-TWO COOKIE RULE probably moved too soon in last and the effort cost him late. He simply ran out of gas. However, he did finish second in his previous two races and many of the runners from those contests, including the victors, went on to win their next starts. He always ran well here and finished in the money in 18 of his 33 local starts. Fits well with these. 2-ALVIN scored the third win of his career two races back and then finished second to top choice in last. He is among the best of the speed. Should be close throughout.

Wow! Competitive race, at least on paper. Can make a legit case for almost everyone in here. I keep going over the race and changing my mind. But think I have to go with 2-LUNDBERG. I like his versatility but think that he’ll be the best speed in the race even if the DRF Timeform pace ratings disagree. He won his last two starts and six of 19 at the distance. Slim pick. The pace of this race is likely to be a big factor. If blistering early fractions do occur, both 3-RED FLAG and 5-NAVY SEAL, he finished third in the 2022 edition of this race, could fly by. 6-DEVIL’S TOWER came from out of it to win his last start but he has raced closer to the early pace in the past and still finished with good energy. Those Timeform numbers suggest that 1-KING CAB is the quickest of these but he just hasn’t shown much staying power lately. 4-CAMP DADDY might be overmatched and he’s making his first start since July but he has had two local races and won them both.

8-WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK wired the field in his turf debut last year. His next turf start wasn’t quite as successful when he displayed good early speed but soon faded to last. However, in last he once again displayed good speed in last and he held onto the lead far longer. Meets an easier field today. Might not get caught. 7-CHANNEL WON, with 15 turf scores to his credit, might be the one they have to beat. He didn’t show much in his first two starts this year, finishing well behind top pick in last, but when he fires, he will close with a rush. 4-YO DAWG in winless in 10 turf trips but he did finish in the money in eight of them. Meets his easiest field this year. Good tactical speed will keep him close in the early going and just might be able to run by them late.

Not sure what to do with this race. I really don’t like the likely favorite, though he could win by the length of the stretch. Guess I’ll go with 1-NAGY AND THE BEARS. I hate that he has only two slow published drills since his race in October but he is quick, he’s done well at the distance, and the race is only five and a half furlongs. 4-MAN ON ATTACK is the obvious favorite but he always seemed better suited to turf routes. He already had a couple races this year but none since March and he had only one workout in the 10 weeks since that contest. Might be vulnerable. 3-A P BLAZING GREEN has some of the higher turf speed figures and he has had some good races at the distance but he will be utilizing a relatively unproven apprentice rider. Her 10-pound weight allowance could be a big help but inexperience could be key.

5-ETERNALLY GRATEFUL could hold the edge. He’s been in very good form since June, though he won only once in the 10 races during that span. On the other hand, he finished out of the money, a fourth, only one time during that period. He just missed as the odds-on favorite in his local debut. Cam make amends today. 4-DYNAMIS got good all of a sudden. He just won a $40k claimer at Oaklawn by daylight, beating 11 rivals. If he runs that way against today, he might not get beat. 1-BETTERA could be on or close to the lead throughout. This recent claim moved to a barn that wins with almost 30% of those starting for them for the first time. He’ll be a higher price than the top pair. Worth a look.

Weird race. There are runners in here that have earned a lot of money but only one of them earned a majority of their money on the lawn. At five furlongs, you know there will be a rush to get to the early lead. The speedier runners in here tend to fade late anyway and a battle for the front end could hasten them running out of gas. Guess I’ll take a shot with 4-COMISKEY PARK. He has been off since August and he hasn’t been all that successful off layoffs but he owns the best late move of anybody in here and he’s dropping a few levels for his comeback contest. 2-CONGRATS ON FIFTY might be slightly the quickest of these. He did fade late in all his turf sprints, finishing third in three of them, but they were all a sixteenth farther. The class drop could make the difference.3-MIDNIGHT SPECIAL can close a bit and he has been the most successful at the distance.