Handicapper Tips & Picks

Similar to the projected 5/8 race shape #6 LILY’S CREED presents a pace advantage on the front (Q1 Square) end. She came up short with the lone trip tracked by eventual winner, Lucy’s Lookin Left in the four horse field and also noted change with LILY’S CREED adding front wraps on the day.

Her stablemate #2 NO NANETTE GO scratched from that 5/8 race and returning for the second start of the season back under similar conditions to the 4/13 race and back under conditions where she had been effective last year while going winless was right there at times, often impacted by race dynamics.

#3 SILKY WARRIOR projects the biggest threat to the E. Rodriguez pair making her second start on the year and class relief from the 4/27 start. That race a potential PREP, and higher conditioned race should set her up to run here. She must return to top form, efforts and figures from the 2024 season to compete though a noted win with a similar form cycle pattern and at this level last May – 5/19. 

#4 A REAL HERO should find no excuses with today’s race shape and the projected pace advantage shown on the Plot with the position clear and forward at the first and second call in Q1 with finishing ability – Square. She finds a subtle change from the two other races this season, races with higher SpeedRate both on 4/13 (58) and 5/4 (29) when compared to the lower SpeedRate today, all runners below the ParLine.

The change in race shape is noted on the opposite end for #2 AWESOME SUNDAY returning where she has had the higher 4/13 SpeedRate as well as Fire Contention on 5/15 with Fast early race shapes when it all played out to run at and might not find similar here – especially when looking at Surface/Distance deeper down in Q4. The change on Surface/Distance can upgrade #5 PALACE MAGIC along with current form, progressing with racing, a similar pattern from prior season and comes into this race with the lack of “Red” in the Past 2 Runlines.

Trip will be crucial for #6 RAINY MOUNTAIN though brings upside with the class change from the race just last week. In addition to pace, a further upgrade with trip racing WIDE X_FLOW and NO_PUSH not asked or allowed to show their best on the day and returns with 5/4 win rider, S. Gonzalez aboard. 

#1 TWO COOKIE RULE should find the right trip time and place looking for their first win on the year. They have held their form since returning to Hawthorne on 4/6 and along with A. Bendezu aboard. They can be upgraded from the 5/11 race not only with the rider change but also the higher Sun Contention and SpeedRate something that also was present on 4/24. They find a race shape similar to that back on 4/6 when coming off the layoff and had some adversity there giving up 69-days recency as well as heavily WARM (washed out) and TROUBLE_S stumbled out of the gate.

Trip will be key with their main threat #5 CODE RUNNER looking to pair up wins returning from the 5/11 common race overcoming adversity at the break and overall speed figures consistent as a contender on that front as well. #6 MISTER CHARMING moves back outside from the 5/11 race when stepping up in class off a win and peak third off on the day. The connections will look to get back on track and back reunited with S. Gonzalez in the process.

The timing, conditioning and rider change could move up #4 FLYING SAMURAI off their races and outcomes this season. They were moving forward and flow upgrade from the April races before the SLOG, WIDE trip and NO_PUSH two weeks ago. 

A solid race with the complexion of the field and competitive in terms of race shape in true honor of the stakes namesake, Work All Week. With that said. #3 RED FLAG holds a class edge while presenting as a graded stakes winner back in their juvenile season in the Bob Hope (G3) dominating the competition (B+) and has since been a solid race horse. They are looking to return to stakes winning ways here and all chance to. They come into this race with current form from the races in their form cycle. They showed class with the allowance win off the layoff in March at Oaklawn at a higher par and a similar higher par coming back in the $200k St. Matthews stakes earlier his month at CD. They hold runstyle versatility while best with a target to chase, something they should have here, they are not committed to a particular race shape to run their best.

#4 YO DAWG comes into this race with the edge on form and recorded with competitive efforts this season at a higher par and fitness in this third start of the cycle. They are versatile to handle the shift back to the turf, the surface where they started out their career and in solid hands with Mojica sticking aboard.

YO DAWG has been pointed to the turf and scratching from a similar event on 5/11 to run here. That 5/11 event will return represented with #6 DINOS DIXIE looking to improve overall and certainly capable of doing so. Their best game is on the lead and lunging out of the gate forced to make a WIDE RUSH into a Fast early pace compromised on flow and running against the track profile, a big upgrade here. They should again find pace pressure with #8 WHATDOYOUTHINKMARK one that moves to the outside post today and outside of DINOS DIXIE as a change here. #7 CHANNEL WON also worth a mention from that common race; they were returning from the layoff on the day, cold on the board and racing first time with front wraps created reservations to put in front of the other handicapping factors on the day.

#1 ROTARY DIAL appears a clever claim and could be a financial success as well. They step up in class for this spot while bringing in current form and figures on par. That extends to fitness, something required over the “Carey Prairie” turf course. As far as the step up in class, technically that is the case though in terms of race spar, this comes with a lower par and lateral move at the least. 

This is a tough race when looking at today’s conditions from surface/distance to the path of runners into this event. As noted in an earlier analysis they key to fitness and noted for the runners returning from layoffs or at the least giving up some recency into this spot and on others. #6 EL MUCHO has the edge on recency for this third start of the season. Their back class and buried form provided the key and winning outcome on 4/3. They were stepped up in class where the race par was a bigger hurdle along with the timing (17 day turnaround) on the day. They have been given adequate recovery while not taking a class drop as a positive. In terms of the surface switch, they should hold form as a versatile type and tough to hold the lone grass race against them setting a Very Fast early pace around two turn at a higher $30k claiming level at the FG with a layoff line that followed.

Terms of conditioning that carries to #3 A P BLAZING GREEN for a second start off the layoff and class relief. Finding the right level to compete has been their main hurdle throughout their career, one that is overall consistent just needs the right level and right group. #7 ALIBI IKE also with recency and positive “every other” pattern into this race. They are taking a bigger class rise from where they have been competitive in the past. Nothing that could keep them out of the top spots, but rather something that requires price compensation first and foremost. 

A case can be made for many in this field and lacking a real true standout “horse to beat” in this group, while respecting #5 ETERNALLY GRATEFUL in that role. They bring in consistent form and figures from the races this season a B OptixGRADE at the level earlier this month. Their effort was compromised with the TROUBLE_S checking back soon after the start, though perhaps slightly in their favor from a dynamic standpoint, as they had the Very Fast early pace to run into.

ETERNALLY GRATEFUL has more tactical early speed as shown on the Plot in the Q1/2 position as a Square above the ParLine, a position that should keep the early pace (#1 BETTERA and #3 BIGFOOT SIGHTING) of the Q1/3 Circles honest with #4 DYNAMIS in a similar tracking trip.

#8 MYSTIC POWER could be flying under the radar and live in this spot. In the name of progression, they have moved forward with each start coming back this season racing into shape. The two sprints should provide fitness including the 4/24 return making a positive PRERACE+ appearance while in running breaking SLOG making a MOVE and GALLOP something coming back at FP on 5/13 less than ideal 5.5f shorter distance though maintaining fitness with the WIDE trip into this spot. Number wise they will require a new top with the other established types in this field, though have upside as a four-year-old and today’s race shape (Sun/50 SpeedRate) suits them here.

#6 CAUGHT OFF GUARD had the benefit of the 4/13 start and BOS/B- effort under similar conditions and par off the layoff for this second start of the season. They will be tested to step up on the win and shorter odds could be projected today with the recent outcome and connections. 

#1 FAST JACK returns from the layoff and will require fitness to contend at the same time holds a class and speed figure edge. While the surface switch comes into play making the move to the TURF has been a long time coming and based on their physicality should at the least transfer their form if not move up. The connections must run for the tag here though no giveaways with this 8-yo IL-bred gelding running for the higher $35k tag.

FAST JACK has early speed and races as advertised along with the rail draw. The contention just to their outside with #2 CONGRATS ON FIFTY is legitimate; another “fast” runner overall and in the early stages of the race. The 5f distance could assist those front runners while noting there is still each other to contest along with the higher 50 SpeedRate. That SpeedRate is certainly subject to change with the two MTO #9 UNCASHED and #10 GAVEL certainly something that could change the entire analysis with a surface switch.

Keeping to the turf, a contentious early pace suits #3 MIDNIGHT SPECIAL bringing in current form and fitness from the GP series of races back to Hawthorne where they were competitive last year. Those races from late in the season, closer to a lateral change for today’s par while at the time giving up recency off the layoff in September before picking up the October win.

Stronger closer types like could struggle with the 5f distance in the case of #4 COMISKEY PARK one that at least can show tactical speed despite the Plot position. #5 TWIRLING ROSES showed more tactical speed with the win last month, though a change able to sit closer with the 6f distance on the main track and race shape on the day, a change here. They were Q1/Q3 Plot position in the races this season and shift to Q4 (Standard) for this race.