Handicapper Tips & Picks

#5 ARMY GAL came up short with a favorable (PERFECT) trip returning from the layoff on 4/27, though following a prior form cycle “every other” pattern that could suggest “prep” and peak effort here. Their runstyle fits today’s race and drawn well where they can track the pace and look for first turn. The post draw is the primary knock with #1 NOLITA otherwise the case made here and can still be left in the mix and even playable though comes down to the right number. #4 JACKSON’S DIXIE brings in current form to pick up a share, while a longer shot to win and similar for #9 CLOVER STREET one that has been knocking around at this N2 level and par coming up short without excuse. 

#6 MISS JUSTIFY has been a quality type since winning her debut, a B+ effort that has continued to improve on figures and class while tested here back in graded stakes company. Her lone graded stakes try last summer in the Alabama (G1) was impacted by racing X_FLOW and the 9f distance projecting SHORTER at the time. They return from the layoff in August with that shorter projections with a dominant/B+ allowance win and showing GRIT while drawing clear late and appears intent returning to both SAR and the graded stakes level.

Looking at OptixPLOT the higher 63 SpeedRate shows the bulk of the field either/and/or above the ParLine and to the left of the y-axis, a scenario to suit the two Q2/4 Squares in the field: #8 STORM MIAMI and #12 UNREASONABLE. As individuals, the pair on that from with STORM MIAMI returning to graded stakes company with improvement form and exiting the 4/30 KEE allowance with a recorded BTL/B OptixGRADE with in running TROUBLE making a strong CLOSE/GALLOP+. UNREASONABLE was in group company overseas and present some upside in this second local start from the 4/18 KEE allowance with a TROUBLE_S making a WIDE MOVE. The winner of the 4/18 allowance, Expensive Queen coming back to finish 4^th in the Gamely (G1) last month at SA and will square off against common rival, #3 MYSTIFYING the POCKET place finisher here.

#7 LOUISE PROCTER does not place on the Plot as she makes her local debut and tough to dismiss. She is sure to get play given the capable connections and capable with these type of layoff shippers in this category.   

While #4 RAGING SEA could find a similar pace and trip coming back off the La Troienne (G1) win, the dynamic looks to chance here and could change to the favor of her stablemate #7 RANDOMIZED. She can be upgraded back at SAR and returning as the show finisher and upgraded X_FLOW while PRESSED assisting the off the pace run from RAGING SEA while RANDOMIZED also giving up recency on the day from the 252-day layoff.

#3 LESLIE’S ROSE also returning to SAR where she was competitive/B- in the Acorn (G1) at this course and distance last year and holding a dominant B+ win in the Ashland (G1) as a sophomore to support on class. She brings in tactical speed and conditioning while recording a new top figure in the Vagrancy (G3) in a blanket finish in their layoff return and throughout her career has run fast enough on par for this race and retaining I. Ortiz – the rider aboard stablemate #5 CANDIED coming off the stakes win on the Preakness undercard. CANDIED will reunite with M. Franco and tough to knock that change and the two together last season with the pair of G1 place finishes over this SAR main track and route distance.